Olympic women's football 2024: group previews and predictions

The U.S. women's national soccer team is participating in the 2024 Olympic soccer tournament in Paris, the team's first competitive matches under head coach Emma Hayes. She takes over after the U.S. women's national team's worst finish in World Cup history last year, when it was eliminated by Sweden in the round of 16.

The U.S. women's national team won four of the first five Olympic Games featuring women's soccer, but is seeking its first gold medal since the 2012 London Games after earning a bronze medal at the 2021 Tokyo Games.

World champions Spain are one of the favourites, while reigning champions Canada could also be in contention. Unlike the Olympic men's football tournament, there are no age restrictions for under-23s, so there will be plenty of top talent at the tournament.

The top two teams from each group and the two best third-placed teams move on to the knockout rounds. Here's what to expect from the tournament, which starts on July 25 and ends on August 10.

GROUP A

Group A is one of the toughest to predict. There are no newcomers (every team has participated in the tournament at least twice, which brings a certain degree of familiarity to the proceedings), but it is a fascinating and competitive field.

Defending champions Canada are aiming to defend their title but will have to do so without the retiring Christine Sinclair. Hosts France, still seeking their first major title, will bring a higher level of intensity and their home advantage and recent success in reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2022 should make them a contender. Meanwhile, Colombia’s run to the World Cup quarter-finals demonstrated their prowess last summer, and they will surely be back in contention for a place in the knockout rounds.

Even New Zealand, though historically a back-burner, are starting to show potential and could surprise the more established teams, adding an unpredictable element. With quality players such as Marie-Antoinette Katoto, Linda Caicedo, Ali Riley and Jordyn Huitema on display, Pool A may have some twists and turns.

Player to watch: Linda Caicedo

Having dazzled at the 2023 World Cup at just 18, Real Madrid and Colombia forward Caicedo is set to capture fans' attention at these Olympics as well. Her exceptional vision, skill and finishing ability make her one to watch in this group. We've seen the world's best defences struggle to contain the youngster and we can expect nothing less at this tournament.

Unmissable match

Despite the rivalry between France and Canada, Colombia vs. France might be the most exciting match between two ruthless, physically attacking teams. Both teams boast incredible talent all over the pitch, and while France will be confident, Colombia has proven it is a force to be reckoned with after knocking Germany out of the World Cup last year. Get ready for fireworks when these two teams meet in Lyon on July 25.

Prediction: 1. France, 2. Canada, 3. Colombia, 4. New Zealand

France's talented and experienced team is likely to top the group. The battle for second place will be fierce, with Canada likely to edge out Colombia, although the South Americans could spring a potential surprise. New Zealand lacks depth and accuracy to finish higher than fourth. — Emily Keogh

B GROUP

We won’t buy into any group-of-death cliches here, but suffice it to say that this group could go in any number of directions. Casual fans might write off Zambia given the pedigree of the United States, Germany, and (to some extent more recently) Australia, but they would do so at their own peril. Zambia may have the tournament’s best player in forward Barbra Banda, who is shining in the NWSL, and Germany just lost star midfielder Lena Oberdorf to injury. Throw in the United States and Australian teams that have shown some inconsistencies, and this group really is a toss-up.

The U.S. women’s national team will attract the most global attention following its fall from grace at the 2023 World Cup and the recent arrival of new coach Emma Hayes. Failure to win a gold medal — an accomplishment that seems unlikely given the team’s transitional status — would mark the first time since the Olympics began including women’s soccer in 1996 that the Americans failed to win either a World Cup or the Olympics the following year.

Germany, the 2016 gold medallist, is returning to the Olympics after missing the previous edition entirely due to Europe's previous double-header qualifying system based on World Cup placement.

Meanwhile, Australia must face the Olympics without star Sam Kerr, who tore his anterior cruciate ligament in January. Australia finished fourth at the 2021 Olympics and last year's World Cup, which the country co-hosted.

Player to watch: Barbra Banda

Three years ago, the Zambian forward became the first player in Olympic history to score three goals in consecutive games. Today, she is the NWSL's joint-leading scorer with 12 goals in 12 games. Hayes called Banda “the most in-form forward in world football,” and few would argue with that.

Unmissable match

Even without Kerr, the July 31 group final between Australia and the United States could be chaotic. These teams have played some crazy games in recent history, including a roller-coaster bronze medal match three years ago that the Americans won 4-3 after leading 4-1 at one point. Both teams could come into this match needing a result that guarantees advancement.

Prediction: 1. Germany, 2. USA, 3. Zambia, 4. Australia

This is the Root for Chaos bracket. I see the U.S. women’s national team and Zambia facing off in an open transition game in the first match that ends in a high-scoring draw. Germany beats Australia in the other opening match and then gets a point against the Americans as Zambia and Australia also draw on matchday two. That leaves the final matchday with Germany (4), U.S. (2), Zambia (2), and Australia (2). Zambia then gets a point against Germany, learning from that pre-2023 World Cup friendly they played, and the U.S. narrowly edges out Australia to move on as well. Zambia hopes to advance as the third-place team. –Jeff Kassouf

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GROUP C

Teams have nowhere to hide when it comes to women's Olympic football, but Group C is incredibly tough for the talent and experience it houses, even by tournament standards.

World champions Spain are the protagonists, having claimed their first title at the 2023 World Cup, and have continued to show their strength in recent months despite off-field disruptions. The Red They will be the favourites to go all the way in France, but history is not on their side, as no team has ever won the World Cup and Olympic gold in consecutive years.

Japan come into the Olympics in good form and could surprise some, as they did at the World Cup, but their place in the knockout stages could depend on their match against Brazil. The two teams have met in three friendlies in the past nine months, with both claiming one win before drawing at the SheBelieves Cup in April.

Africa's most successful women's team, Nigeria, complete the quartet. Although their record in Olympic tournaments is not brilliant, the Super Falcons caught the eye at the World Cup and played smart football to surprise several teams on their way to a penalty shoot-out defeat against England in the round of 16. Nigeria are not a team to be taken lightly, but they have not been shining in recent matches and could be seen as an asset to the other three nations.