The NFL playoffs are just around the corner and the betting market is full of props for players. That's why we bring you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the best options for each game of wild card weekend.
My weekly betting book features several data points for each of the games scheduled for this weekend, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting on, although this article is designed in a way that allows you choose your own favorites.
Exclusively for ESPN+ members: If you'd like to see a list of over 200 props and my recommended plays for each, click this link here.
Note: Odds from ESPN BET and correct at time of publication.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 at Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Saturday 4:30 pm Eastern Time
Money line: Cleveland Browns (-135); Houston Texans (+115)
Total: 44.5; Open: 43.5
FPI Favorite: Browns by 0.2 (50.5% to win outright)
Clay's Projected Score: Texans 21.2, Browns 21.1
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Jalen Pitre under 4.5 solos (-135): Pitre has played at least 90% of Houston's defensive snaps in 13 games this season. He hasn't reached 5.0 solo tackles in eight of those games, including three in a row. Pitre averaged 4.1 alone in those 13 games and also left two games early, falling below 5.0 in both. One of those outings came against the Browns in Week 16. Cleveland is in the middle of the pack in tackles allowed to opposing safeties. Pitre is rarely in the box (he's lined up at free safety 72% of the time) and, even in a projected every-down role, odds suggest he won't reach 5.0 on his own.
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Sione Takitaki under 7.5 total tackles (-105): Takitaki has reached eight tackles in only one of 15 games this season. The exception was a 16-tackle effort against the Jets in Week 17, which is part of why this line is so high. Takitaki played 61% of the snaps during the regular season, although he punted 90% in two of his last three games once Anthony Walker Jr. went on IR. Still, Takitaki failed to record eight tackles in three of the four games in which he played at least 80% of the snaps. Takitaki and Cleveland's top off-ball linebacker, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, fell short of 7.5 tackles when these teams met in Week 16.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Saturday 8 pm Eastern Time
Money line: Miami Dolphins (+190); Kansas City Chiefs (-225)
Total: 43.5; Open: 51.5
FPI Favorite: Chiefs by 1 (52.6% to win directly)
Clay's Projected Score: Dolphins 23, Chiefs 22
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Travis Kelce 5.5+ receptions (+100): It's been a down season for Kelce, and yet the veteran tight end is averaging 6.2 receptions per game and has reached six receptions in nine of 15 games. His production dipped during the second half of the regular season, but he maintained a good target percentage most weeks and has a history of high-level production in the playoffs. Kelce has six-plus receptions in five straight playoff games and is 13-for-18 in his career, averaging 7.4 per game over that span. Miami allowed the seventh-most TE receptions during the regular season and is dealing with major injury issues on defense, with players like Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkel, Xavien Howard and Jerome Baker out (and several others questionable ). This one is attractive with more money.
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Trent McDuffie over 2.5 solos (-167): McDuffie has produced at least three solo tackles in 11 of 16 games. That includes four alone when these teams met in Week 11. McDuffie is an every-down player (a 97% snap when he's active this season) and covers the spot at nickel. That allows him to make extra plays near the line of scrimmage and has helped him make 80 total tackles this season. That total trails only safety Justin Reid for the most on the team. The Eagles allow 13.6 tackles per game on corners, ninth most.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills -10
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 1 pm Eastern Time
Money line: Pittsburgh Steelers (+380); Buffalo Bills (-500)
Total: 35.5; Open: 42.5
FPI Favorite: Bills for 10.4 (76.6% to win directly)
Clay's Projected Score: Bills 25, Steelmakers 20
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Mason Rudolph over 26.5 pass attempts (-110): Rudolph has played three full games this season and has posted pass attempt totals of 27, 24 and 20 (23.7 average). That may tell you less, but keep in mind that the Steelers won those games by margins of 23, 7, and 7, respectively. Pittsburgh was ahead or tied on 95% of its offensive plays during those three games, easily the highest rate in the league during that span. The Steelers entered Rudolph's first start having been ahead on 18% of offensive plays (third lowest) and while you could argue that Rudolph has improved the offense, the most important fact here is that the Steelers have a massive 10-point lead on the road. the underdogs against the Bills this weekend. Additionally, Rudolph's career suggests he doesn't make much of a difference, and he entered this season averaging 37.1 pass attempts in the eight career games in which he played the most snaps (27+ in the eight ). The opposing team has recorded at least 27 pass attempts in 14 of 17 games against the Bills this season.
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys -7.5
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Sunday 4:30 pm Eastern Time
Money line: Green Bay Packers (+270); Dallas Cowboys (-340)
Total: 50.5; Open: 48.5
FPI Favorite: Cowboys by 9.1 (73.6% to win directly)
Clay's Projected Score: Cowboys 29, Packers 24
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Aaron Jones under 69.5 rushing yards (-115): Jones has recorded 20-plus carries and 110-plus rushing yards in three straight games, but that production depended a lot on the script of the game. The Packers led 73% of their offensive plays during the stretch, easily pacing the league. Before that three-game stretch, Green Bay had led just 28% of its offensive plays (23) and Jones had reached 55 rushing yards just once in his other eight games (73 yards in a 20-3 win over the Rams in Week 9). That's notable this week, as the Packers are big underdogs on the road against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed only two running backs to reach 70 rushing yards in a game this season.
Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions -3
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday 8:15 pm Eastern Time
Money line: Los Angeles Rams (+140); Detroit Lions (-165)
Total: 51.5; Open: 51.5
FPI Favorite: Leones by 1.4 (53.9% to win directly)
Clay's Projected Score: Lions 28, Rams 25
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Cooper Kupp minus 6.5 receptions (-155): Kupp averaged 4.9 receptions over 12 regular-season games. He reached seven receptions only four times, and two of them came in his first two games of the season. Kupp had a receiving support of 6.5 or 7.5 five times during the regular season and came up short all five times. Detroit has allowed the sixth-most WR receptions this season, but only seven receivers reached seven receptions in a game against them.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Monday 8:15 pm Eastern Time
Money line: Philadelphia Eagles (-160); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+135)
Total: 43.5; Open: 44.5
FPI Favorite: Eagles by 2.6 (57.3% to win outright)
Clay's Projected Score: Buccaneers 25, Águilas 23
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Devin White 1.5+ assists (-149) and 4.5+ total tackles (-150): White has recorded at least 2.0 assists in 11 of 14 games and at least 4.5 total tackles in nine of 14 games this season. Most of the exceptions have come in his last six games, but his usage has remained consistent, suggesting the recent drop is likely noise. White has lined up as an off-ball linebacker on 75% of his snaps and is an every-down player (a 97% share when he is active this season). The Eagles are near the middle of the pack in tackles allowed on off-ball linebackers, and White recorded 2.0 assists and 7.0 total tackles when these teams played in Week 3.
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Rachaad White with less than 4.5 receptions (-170): There have been 33 instances of a running back with a 4.5 reception this season. Only 12 of the 33 passed. White (who has had a reception that high just once this season) is averaging 4.2 targets and 3.8 receptions per game. He has five catches in just five of 17 games, including just one of his last seven outings. The second-year running back caught three passes on three targets while playing on a season-high 91% of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps when these teams met in Week 3. Only five running backs have recorded five receptions in a game against the Eagles this season.
Exclusively for ESPN+ members: If you'd like to see a list of over 200 props and my recommended plays for each, click this link here.
