The NFL Playoffs conference championship round schedule for the 2024 season has two great matchups, and we've got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters give us the biggest clues and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a great must-know statistic and betting nugget for each competition, and our Football Power Index (FPI) gets into the numbers with a game projection. Analysis writer Seth Walder selects the most important Finally, Walder and Eric Moody give us final scoring picks for both games. Everything you want to know is here, in one place, to help you prepare for an exciting weekend of NFL playoff football.
Let's get into the full list of conference championships, including Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy vs. Jared Goff.
Jump into a matchup:
KC-BAL | DET-SF
3 pm ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -3.5 (44.5)
What to pay attention to: This game marks the first playoff meeting between Mahomes and Jackson. In the regular season, Mahomes is 3-1 against Jackson, which is the most wins of any starting quarterback against Jackson (regular season and playoffs). In his most recent meeting in 2021, Jackson beat Mahomes and the Chiefs by rushing for 107 yards and scoring three touchdowns, including a dive into the end zone for the winning score. – Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: The Ravens and Chiefs will combine for at least 45 points. These were the two best regular season teams in scoring defense, with Baltimore leading the way with 16.5 points allowed per game and Kansas City right behind at 17.3. But Jackson and Mahomes will be too good to stop, and each team will surpass 20 points. –Adam Teicher
Statistics to know: Steve Spagnuolo has been the Chiefs' defensive coordinator since 2019. In that time, no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (26) in the regular season than the Chiefs.
Showdown X Factor: Mahomes' fighting ability. The Chiefs have had a tough time in the passing game all season, and it's only going to get tougher against Baltimore, which allowed the second-lowest open score to opposing receivers (ESPN's receiver tracking metrics) and posted the most sacks in the league. (60). Mahomes is a very effective scrambler and will have to generate production with his legs on Sunday. -Walder
Key to the game plan: Kansas City's defense loves to use man coverage in the red zone, especially inside their own 10-yard line. Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken should have some answers there, with Jackson's receivers running crossovers and delaying his throws. The Ravens ranked eighth in red zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on 61.8% of their trips inside the 20. Read more on ESPN+. – Bowen
Injuries: Bosses | crows
Arbitration note: Referee Shawn Smith's regular-season team threw the third-most flags in the NFL this season, an average of 14.8 per game. Smith has also made an above-average number of roughness calls. He threw the third-most flags for roughing the passer (eight) and overall, his team ranked No. 1 with 25 unnecessary roughing calls. –Seifert
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 3-1 overall and 2-2 against Jackson. Three of the four matches went over the total, and each matchup combined for at least 51 points. The average of the four previous over/unders was 52.4 and none was lower than 49.
Moody's Choice: Ravens 25, Chiefs 21
Walder's Choice: Ravens 26, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.6% (for an average of 4.6 points)
Required readings of the confrontation: Chiefs head to AFC title game with new identity… Ravens' run to AFC title game against Chiefs fueled by upsets… Thuney unlikely to play against Chiefs Ravens… Jackson hopes for 'heavyweight fight' against Mahomes
1:42
How JJ Watt would try to stop Lamar Jackson
JJ Watt tells “The Pat McAfee Show” how the Chiefs defense should try to stop Lamar Jackson.
6:30 pm ET | Fox | Spread: SF-7 (50.5)
What to pay attention to: This is a matchup between the established playoff favorite (the 49ers) against the upstart postseason underdog (the Lions). San Francisco will make its 19th appearance in the conference championship game, an NFL record. Detroit is in just its second conference title game of the Super Bowl era and first since the 1991 season.
But this game also has all the makings of a heavyweight fight between two of the most physical teams in the league. How the Niners' run defense, which ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed (128.6) and 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.8) since Week 15, holds up against the Lions' two-headed rushing attack , Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. will go a long way toward determining whether Detroit can pull off an upset. -Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: Gibbs will run to score in his third straight playoff game. Sony Michel, Tim Hightower, Jamal Lewis, William Floyd and Tony Dorsett are the only NFL rookies with touchdowns in three playoff games, but Gibbs will become the sixth to accomplish this rare feat. –Eric Woodyard
Statistics to know: The 49ers have been the toughest team to tackle in the NFL this season, leading the league in yards after contact (95.3 per game). In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions defense will look to put an end to that, as it leads the league in yards after contact allowed per game (63.5).
Showdown X Factor: “Lions pass running back Aidan Hutchinson”. The Lions pass defense is the weakest unit left in the playoffs, ranking 30th in EPA per dropback throughout the season. Hutchinson is a guy who can change that in an instant, and he's been a different player in the postseason with a 29% pass-rush win rate, more than double his regular-season figure. He also has 8.0 sacks in his last four games. Detroit, the underdog, needs something special: a layoff, perhaps? — from Hutchinson to level this game again. -Walder
Key to the game plan: Detroit has to push Purdy off the schedule. Including the playoffs, Detroit has posted a 28.3% blitz rate on first and second downs, which ranks in the top 10. The Lions simply can't allow Purdy to pitch with rhythm or allow coach Kyle Shanahan to control the pace. Read more on ESPN+. – Bowen
Injuries: Lions | 49ers
Arbitration note: Referee Clete Blakeman's regular-season team took the NFL's midseason emphasis on offensive offside penalties to heart, throwing five such flags, the most in the league. He ranked second in the NFL in flags (53) related to defensive pass coverage: illegal contact, defensive pass interference and defensive holding. –Seifert
Betting nugget: The Lions are 13-6 against the spread, the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5). The overs are 12-7 in Lions games. The 49ers are 9-9 against the spread with overs of 10-8.
Moody's Choice: Lions 31, 49ers 28
Walder's Choice: 49ers 34, Lions 24
FPI prediction: SF, 74.1% (for an average of 8.5 points)
Required readings of the confrontation: Lions turn attention to 49ers after ousting Bucs in playoffs… Purdy on playoff struggles: 'It's a new game'… Campbell links winless 2008 Lions to success of 2023 team…Samuel, Williams provide leadership to 49ers
