What's worth betting on Sunday's pair of NFL conference championship games?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum and Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz They are here to give you their opinions and help you make smart betting decisions.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Do you expect the Chiefs to move the ball in this Ravens defense and how do you bet on this game?
Schatz: I expect the Chiefs to have some success moving the ball on the Ravens defense, even though Baltimore ranked #1 in defensive DVOA during the regular season. There is no doubt that Patrick Mahomes has always played at his best in the postseason. The question is more how well his teammates will play. Will Márquez Valdés-Scantling be able to retain the deep ball? Can Travis Kelce open that door when he's covered by Kyle Hamilton or Roquan Smith instead of the Bills' backup linebackers? The Chiefs were probably a little underrated this year, but the Ravens were a juggernaut: fifth all-time in regular-season DVOA, with seven wins of 14 or more points against teams with winning records. A Ravens win is far from a guarantee, but even with the Mahomes Magic, I think this line is too low and I'm happy to go with Ravens -3.5.
Fulgo: Listen, sometimes in sports you just have to say, “I know better.” I am a person who strongly advocates the process of trusting mathematics and numbers to guide us towards the most likely predictive guess. The DVOA numbers for this Ravens team are literally historically good. They are objectively an elite team in all three phases. However, I know not to bet against Patrick Mahomes when they are giving him points, especially if they give up more than a field goal. Chiefs +4.0 is the play (I'm even comfortable betting Kansas City on the +170 moneyline) Because Mahomes is inevitable. He has won eight of the 11 games he has played in the NFL as the betting underdog, which is absurd, and is 9-1-1 ATS in those 11 games. Sometimes in sports we just know more than the numbers, and betting on Mahomes to defy mathematical odds is one of those cases.
The Lions click a little more than the 49ers, who escaped with victory against the Packers last week, however, the 49ers are touchdown favorites. Are you surprised by the spread and how do you bet this one?
Moody: It's amazing to see the spread. I'm rooting for the underdog Lions (+7) here. Don't underestimate Detroit on the road outside Ford Field. The Lions are 13-6 against the spread this season and 2-1 as underdogs. Given some of the red flags the 49ers have shown against quality competition at home, this game will be closer than the spread suggests. The 49ers could also be without Deebo Samuel after a lackluster victory over the Packers in the divisional round. San Francisco is 0-6 against the spread in its last six home games. The Lions are one of four franchises that have yet to reach the Super Bowl. Head coach Dan Campbell has them one win away from changing that. Since Campbell has been the Lions' head coach, Detroit is 16-4 against the spread as an underdog of four or more points. The Lions could win this game.
Fulgo: The difference doesn't surprise me; In fact, it further validates my belief that the 49ers are the team that will win the Super Bowl this year. I feel comfortable betting San Francisco -7 in this position. Yes, the Lions have been a very fun story all year. They are a legitimately good football team. But the San Francisco 49ers are a legitimate juggernaut. I see no way the Lions can contain the 49ers' passing attack, whether Deebo Samuel is healthy or not. I have a hard time seeing Jared Goff and the Lions offense match the level of efficiency they were able to maintain against the Rams and Bucs while playing in the comfortable confines of Ford Field. The 49ers also have the situational advantage of an extra day of rest. Maybe this is confirmation bias since San Francisco was my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, but I really think they're going to win and cover this game.
Walder: I just can't get over these numbers: In terms of EPA per play, the 49ers' passing offense ranks first and the Lions' passing defense ranks 30th. That's a huge, huge, huge mismatch. Brock Purdy is coming off a tough game but it was in the rain and I prefer to rely on the larger season sample. The Lions have had a good run and are a good football team. But I would like to bet on a 49ers total -7 or a 49ers team total over 29.5.
What's your favorite player prop bet on Sunday?
Moody: Rashee Rice OVER 58.5 yards receiving. They have surpassed this line in six of their last 10 games. During that period, Rice has averaged 8.0 goals per game. In the divisional round against the Bills, in which Patrick Mahomes had just 23 pass attempts, Rice caught all four targets for 47 receiving yards. The Ravens secondary is formidable as they allow the fifth fewest passing yards per game. However, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes will certainly try to exploit a defensive tendency for the Ravens. Baltimore has used two safeties on 71.2% of its defensive snaps this season, the second-highest percentage in the league. Against 2 tall safeties, Rice has had a lot of success creating separation as he caught 81.4% of 59 targets and gained 339 yards after the catch.
Schatz: Let me agree with Eric on Rashee Rice OVER 58.5 yards receiving. In addition to Rice's success and the Chiefs' offense's desire to get the ball to him rather than other receivers, the Ravens had a relative weakness in covering No. 1 receivers, ranking “only” at the position. 12. That weakness will be exacerbated if Marlon Humphrey is unable to play due to his calf injury.
Fulgo: Here are the stats for the last five quarterbacks who have faced this Detroit Lions defense:
Week 16 – Nick Mullens: 22/36, 411 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT
Week 17 – Dak Prescott: 26/38, 345 yards, 2 TD, INT
Week 18 – Mullens: 30/44, 396 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
Wild Card Round: Matthew Stafford: 25/36, 367 yards, 2 TDs
Divisional Round: Baker Mayfield: 26/41, 349 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
Since 345 yards is the lower amount allowed by Aaron Glenn's defense over the last month, I'll happily bet on Brock Purdy OVER 276.5 passing yards. Purdy was far from his best against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round, but the wet weather is a legitimate reason for that. It clearly affected his accuracy on more than a few throws. Fortunately for the 49ers, the weather forecast for Sunday is impeccable. It will be warm and rain-free, providing optimal conditions for Kyle Shanahan's offense. Samuel's potential absence is a concern, but even if he's unavailable, the Niners can still pick apart this pass defense.
Walder: Nick Bosa LESS than 0.5 sacks (+105). Bosa will face Penei Sewell, one of the best tackles in the NFL. That's pretty tough, but Jared Goff is also one of the quarterbacks who avoids the most sacks with a 4.7% sack rate that trails only Josh Allen and Mahomes. All of that creates a hostile environment for Bosa, who last recorded a sack on Dec. 17, to get one. My model makes less than -126.
Is there anything else you're betting on on Sunday?
Moody: Christian McCaffrey OVER 36.5 yards receiving. The Lions defense allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game during the regular season, and that trend has continued in the playoffs. McCaffrey has significant upside as a receiver out of the backfield against Detroit's linebackers and I would be surprised if 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan didn't exploit that weakness. McCaffrey averaged 36.1 receiving yards per game for the 49ers in the regular season and playoffs. Regardless of Deebo Samuel's availability, this line represents McCaffrey's floor, but not his ceiling.
Moody: Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 receptions. There could be even more opportunities for Kelce underneath against a Ravens defense that relies heavily on two safeties. The relationship between Kelce and Patrick Mahomes is undeniable. That being said, the veteran tight end could make league history against the Ravens. Kelce is close to being the NFL's all-time leader in postseason receptions. He is just six catches away from tying Jerry Rice's record of 151 catches. Kelce has averaged 9.1 targets and 7.2 receptions per game in the playoffs throughout his career.
Schatz: Gus Edwards anytime touchdown +140. The Chiefs' run defense ranked just 27th in DVOA and came in last, allowing an 80% conversion rate on short-yardage runs. In particular, the Ravens have a big advantage in power concepts, where they were successful 8% more than the average offense, while the Chiefs were successful 15% less than the average defense. There's a call right there for the Gus bus. Sure, Lamar Jackson can figure it out himself, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens were at the goal line a couple of times and Edwards had a couple of chances to put him in the end zone.
Fulgo: At least it needs to be pointed out if you didn't know. the very dark second half “UNDER” is 17-2 this season in Kansas City Chiefs games. That's almost a 90% success rate with this bet! It's been an absolute blast. Now, this is certainly a scary proposition when two quarterbacks as dynamic as Jackson and Mahomes are on the field in the fourth quarter of a football game, but the trend is alarming. If you're willing to give it one more chance, the second half UNDER 22.5 (-115) is available.
Walder: Roquan Smith OVER 2.5 assists (-145). I predict Smith will give 4.3 assists, so I'm willing to eat the -145 here. Yes, the Chiefs are probably the most passing team relative to expectations, but Smith has also surpassed this line in 15 of 17 games this year. The odds are in our favor.
