Making bold predictions about the upcoming NFL season is a difficult task. It's like the draft: hitting 40-50% of first-round picks is very difficult to achieve.
Here at ESPN we like the challenge so much that every January we ask league industry sources to predict the season. The possibilities are limitless: free agency signings, retirements, contenders and suitors, trades and MVP favorites.
Last year's forecast reminds us how quickly the moving target of the NFL news cycle really is. Even when the concept is right (DK Metcalf being traded) you can pick the wrong team (Chargers instead of Steelers). Sam Darnold didn't go to the Raiders, as we predicted, but the man he replaced in Seattle, Geno Smith, did. This is a league that's impossible to pin down, that thrives on “hold my beer” theatrics. And the ripple effects of the offseason are just beginning. Just look at the coaching carousel, which was supposed to be somewhat tame, until 10 jobs opened up, including highly decorated coaches like Mike Tomlin (resigned), John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott.
We're still weeks away from a strong trade market and quarterbacks changing teams. Even if they're worthless, here are a handful of bold predictions from executives, coaches and scouts around the league.
Ravens trade Lamar Jackson to Raiders
This potential pairing has made its way through the rumor mill, and several people I spoke to who track this sort of thing used their one bold prediction in this exercise to designate Jackson as a Raider.
To take Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti at his word is to assume Jackson will remain in Baltimore. Bisciotti made it clear that he wants a contract extension for Jackson by March.
But if we go bold…
“It just seems like there's been some consternation with Lamar and the Ravens, and this would be the defining move for Mark Davis,” said one NFL personnel evaluator. “I'm not even convinced everyone in Las Vegas would be on board with this, but it would instantly solve their quarterback problems.”
From chemistry issues with the previous coaching staff to concerns about his availability, Jackson's relationship with the Ravens doesn't appear to be in the best shape. Baltimore probably realizes that life with a two-time MVP is better than life without him, which would mean a big contract offer is coming. But this is a situation to monitor, and the way Jackson gets along with the new head coach seems significant.
Eagles trade AJ Brown to Bills
Brown's happiness quotient in Philadelphia is miserably low. He is a great player and great players are difficult to replace. But the Eagles have never been afraid to make a move because of salary cap implications. The Eagles can actually save $7 million on the salary cap by designating Brown for a post-June 1 trade.
And it seems that the time has come. Some league executives have felt that way since October.
“The Bills have to improve there; their best receiver is Khalil Shakir, who is a good player but not a great guy,” said one NFL personnel evaluator. “Brown is an immediate improvement and is still young [turning 29 in June]. And the Eagles can build the passing game around DeVonta Smith and a high draft pick.”
Other possible candidates, via NFL scouts: the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders.
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For a while, the feeling has been that Cousins' time in Atlanta was short, especially when both sides restructured his contract that includes $67.9 million in 2027 salary, which will vest on March 13. The Falcons will want nothing to do with that number. But contracts can be changed (or players can be cut and re-signed) and the arrival of coach Kevin Stefanski could make keeping Cousins at least slightly tempting as a bridge option.
Stefanski was Cousins' offensive coordinator in Minnesota in 2019, when Cousins completed nearly 70% of his passes for 3,603 yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. Cousins knows Stefanski's wide zone scheme well.
“[The Falcons] “I bet Michael Penix wouldn't get hurt and he got hurt,” an NFC executive said. Penix underwent anterior cruciate ligament repair in his left knee in November, his fifth major surgery since college.
“They'll need someone early in the season because of the injury, and Cousins played well for them late last year. It seems like Cousins has always respected Kevin. Both teams have a decent option in their back pockets.”
The flip side: Cousins might want out after two years of uncertainty in Atlanta, and he has a mechanism to do so with the contract overhaul. Maybe he wants to be available for Minnesota or others.
Malik Willis to the Dolphins or Browns
If Daniel Jones returns to the Indianapolis Colts as many expect, Willis emerges as a potential top free agent at the position.
Willis made some money with his performance in relief of Jordan Love in Green Bay, showing dual-threat ability that a new offensive mind could mold.
“I just don't believe [the Browns] Enter the season with Shedeur. [Sanders] as their best option,” said one NFC personnel man. “And getting the right quarterback in the draft is not a guarantee based on where they pick.”
The Browns have the No. 6 and No. 24 picks in the first round of April's draft.
No regime will know Willis' strengths better than Miami, which just hired a brain trust consisting of general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley from Green Bay. The Packers valued Willis' development and Miami could bear the fruits of that work.
Colts win AFC South for first time since 2014
NFL parity makes the Colts' 11-year drought without a division title really confusing considering the talent on the roster and the four winning seasons during that span.
The Colts seemed poised for a breakthrough with an 8-2 start through 2025 before injuries derailed the season and led Indy to call up 44-year-old Philip Rivers off the couch as the team's quarterback.
“But they showed proof of concept with what they had in 10 games,” an AFC executive said. “They had Daniel Jones playing well. The squad is talented. They're closer than people might think.”
First, Indy has several key free agents to try to re-sign, from Jones to wide receiver Alec Pierce and right tackle Braden Smith.
Pitts' fifth season was his best as a pro, with 88 receptions for 928 yards and five touchdowns.
The tag for tight ends is projected to be $15.9 million.
“The figure is reasonable and is a good basis for a long-term deal for him,” an AFC executive said. “I'm not sure what they'll do with Drake London, but keeping Pitts seems like a good decision right now.”
George Pickens' situation in Dallas becomes complicated
The Cowboys are expected to franchise pick Pickens, which would pay him around $28 million next season. But Pickens will want a long-term deal above that number, and if Dallas doesn't give it to him, some around the league wonder if he will stay away from the team for much of the offseason or even training camp.
“I just don't see him, after the season he had, welcoming the tag with open arms,” one veteran AFC coach said.
If tagged, both parties would have until July 15 to reach an agreement. Pickens may choose not to sign the label as a method of leverage.
Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray are available for the Jets
This idea isn't exactly bold: All three quarterbacks appear not to be in their current franchises' long-term plans. But each of them are former Pro Bowlers and several teams have a glaring need at the position each year.
“Will the Jets get one of those three? That's really the question I have,” one AFC executive said. “They might be young and preparing for the 2027 quarterback draft, but head coach [Aaron Glenn] “He probably needs to win, so he might need a more reliable option.”
Miami and Arizona have big guarantees in deals with Tagovailoa and Murray, respectively. Murray would make the most sense for New York, given Tagovailoa's ties to the AFC East, but not everyone is convinced that Arizona owner Michael Bidwill would pay a significant portion of Murray's $37 million in guarantees to keep him from playing in Arizona. Smith's contract is more manageable, with $18.5 million already guaranteed for 2026 (another $8 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the new league year). The 35-year-old spent his first four seasons with the Jets, throwing 28 touchdowns and 36 interceptions before moving on.
Still, the Jets will need to make major plans for a veteran quarterback.
