A group of death in regionals? The best seeds in danger? The men's college baseball tournament begins Friday and there is sure to be plenty of impressive play and, of course, drama.
Although regional hosts advance to super 67% of the time, our experts predict that because there is so much parity across the sport, we will look like some real surprises – surprises that might not qualify as such if you look closely. only in sowing. Of the top eight national seeds (Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, North Carolina, Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia, Florida State), only UGA has won a national title (1990).
Plus, there are plenty of top prospects playing across the board and breaking records, with new NCAA home run leader Charlie Condon in the mix.
So which regionals offer the toughest path to Omaha? And what potential super-regional matchups are we crossing our fingers to get? Our experts analyze the 2024 field.
Jump to: The hardest path | Players and teams to follow
The underdogs | Possible supers clashes | Bold predictions
Which region has the toughest road to Omaha?
Chris Burke: Tucson. The depth of this regional will surely provide us with memorable moments. Arizona is the host and has clinched a regular-season and postseason Pac 12 title, but welcomes three struggling teams. Dallas Baptist is the second seed, coming off a 44-win season and playing in its 10th consecutive regional. Third-ranked West Virginia has one of the best players in the country in JJ Wetherholt. To top it all off, Grand Canyon is the fourth seed and has beaten Arizona two of three times this year, including a 24-8 blowout. This regional is going to be juicy.
Ryan McGee: There are a LOT of regionals stacked up, which I think is a testament to the parity we see in college baseball that we don't see in most sports. But my eyes are on Stillwater. Oklahoma State got that first place and the host spot, but Nebraska in second place, the red-hot Purple Eagles of Niagara in fourth place…and Jac Caglianone and Florida in third place! This is a stampede in a barracks.
Mike Rooney: The Tucson Regional offers difficulties that would make a “group of death” in the World Cup blush. Arizona has the best strike-throwing pitching staff in the country. And while that's noteworthy, Gregg Wallis' Grand Canyon might be the fourth most dangerous spot in the entire tournament. Dallas Baptist has ace Ryan Johnson and a lineup that ranks in the top 15 in slugging percentage. And don't mind this West Virginia team on a mission to extend head coach Randy Mazey's final season. The good news is that this region probably overlaps with North Carolina or LSU…oh wait. #Deep breathing
Kyle Peterson: Arizona did not receive any gifts in the drawing. Dallas Baptist has a resume worthy of a host and a true ace, and is currently in the top 20 in the country in home runs per game. West Virginia went 19-11 in the Big 12 (33-22 overall), has a first-round talent in Wetherholt (who has found his groove again after missing most of the first half of the season) and As Burke said, Grand Canyon won the season series against Arizona (every midweek game), so this is a tough 4-seed draw.
Kiley McDaniel: The runner-up of the Tucson Regional has to be the Tallahassee Regional that includes Florida State, Stetson UCF and Alabama, and the winner of that group will likely face either Oklahoma or Duke of the Norman Regional.
What are you most excited to see this weekend?
Burke: I'll stick with Caglianone from Florida. The best two-way player in the country carries a big load to the Stillwater Regional. Not only does the legendary slugger do the heavy lifting on offense, but I'm guessing he'll also be asked to pitch early in the regional. Florida was the last SEC team to enter, and if they want to make some noise, the Cags will have to be playing at their best.
McGee: This is the time of year when those of us who watch college baseball all spring can sit back and watch the faces of people who watch the games only during the tournament and see how they react when they see certain players for the first time. I can't wait for America to see Georgia's Charlie Condon play.
Rooney: The aforementioned Johnson has 147 strikeouts heading into the regionals, which places him in third place in the country. The junior runs his fastball into the mid-90s, but his slider is the real dream buster for hitters. Johnson's eccentric quick delivery adds to the entertainment value. Oregon State junior Travis Bazzana broke the Beavers' home run record with 26 round-trip home runs in 2024. The Australian second baseman posted a 1.520 OPS with only Condon posting a higher number. Bazzana's great play matches his great energy.
Peterson: Eighteen of Kiley McDaniel's top 30 2024 MLB draft prospects are playing in the postseason…so take your pick. But if you're looking for players who haven't had much of a national career, Johnson is actually elite and has a sub-2.00 ERA this season, and East Carolina's Trey Yesavage has recorded 10 or more strikeouts in eight of his 12 starts. this season. But pick any game and you'll see some future major leaguers.
McDaniel: I would love to see Yesavage return from a partially collapsed lung and negotiate in front of a rowdy home crowd, probably against Wake Forest.
What helpless people should we be careful of?
Burke: Vanderbilt had a 13-17 regular season in the SEC, but you would never know that watching the team in Hoover. The pitching has stabilized behind Bryce Cunningham and JD Thompson, and the offense played its best game all year behind the leadership of RJ Austin and Alan Espinal. This group is headed to Clemson, where they won back-to-back regionals in 2017 and 2018. Talk about a dangerous second place finish!
McGee: There are those who have criticized Coastal Carolina for the way it stumbled over the final third of the season, and rightly so. He seemed tired, finally consumed by the emotions of Gary Gilmore's final days on the bench and his continuing experience with cancer. But if you know your college baseball history, that kind of challenge has often fueled incredible postseason runs. See: Arizona State came to Omaha in 1994 while head coach Jim Brock was so sick he could barely make the trip, or this year with Birmingham Southern moving up to the Division III MCWS because their school is going bankrupt.
Rooney: The #QuakeShow is back for an encore. Let's not forget that Penn started 2-0 in the 2023 Auburn Regional before Southern Miss beat the Quakers in the end. This club returns slugger Wyatt Henseler (.372-22-55) and aces Cole Zaffiro and Ryan Dromboski. If you're unsure of Quake Show's talent level, keep in mind that 2023 alumni Ben Miller and Jackson Appel currently star at Duke and Texas A&M respectively. These guys can play.
Peterson: Bryant or James Madison are two to follow closely in Raleigh; I wouldn't be surprised if one of them played in a regional final.
McDaniel: UCF is a dangerous third seed, as is Georgia Tech.
What super regional potential do you hope to see?
Burke: This is easy for me. The potential for Chase Burns to pitch at Lindsey Nelson Stadium against his former team at No. 1 overall Tennessee in supers has the potential to be must-see television. First, Wake Forest will have to get past host East Carolina, but if they do and Tennessee is waiting, it will be one of the most anticipated matchups in recent memory!
McGee: I'm watching a super regional between Texas A&M and UC-Santa Barbara and everything I'm seeing is a living, breathing metaphor for everything that's happening in college sports right now. The Aggies, an SEC machine with all the money in the world and coffers full of NIL versus a non-football West Coast school with a proud baseball tradition. Aggies against gauchos? Come on.
Rooney: Arkansas is ranked No. 1 nationally with a team ERA of 3.65. Ace left-hander Hagen Smith owns a 50% strikeout rate. In other words, if he comes up heads, he's lucky. Virginia's group of position players is a scary mix of athleticism and skill. Shortstop Griff O'Ferrall establishes the Cavs' competitive edge, and Virginia ranks second nationally with a ridiculous .341 batting average. Something has to give here.
Peterson: Whether it's East Carolina or Wake at Tennessee there will be appointments to watch. East Carolina is still trying to get to Omaha for the first time, and Wake is trying to make a comeback with Burns, Nick Kurtz and Seaver King leading the way.
McDaniel: The potential Tennessee-Wake Forest superregional would have tons of star power and pro potential, but Burns' revenge game makes it juicier.
What's your bold prediction for these first game series?
Burke: My bold prediction for the regional round is that less than half of the hosts will advance. There is so much parity in the game and so many regionals where the runners-up are playing very well that I think the hosts are going to have their hands full. Don't be surprised if many 1-seeds get their hearts broken in their own buildings this week.
McGee: Since the NCAA began awarding national seeds in 1999, there has only been one year in which less than half of Omaha's field was made up of 1 seeds. That was back in 2007, when only three seeds 1 made it to the big show. I say we'll get closer to that this year and it starts this weekend. When you look at the non-1s, like LSU, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Dallas Baptist, South Carolina, Florida… there are a lot of superpowers with crooked numbers next to their names.
Rooney: Only half (or less) of the number 1 seeds will advance to the super regionals. By the way, that's not pessimism. This group of 2 seeds is scary. In fact, seven of these teams played in a super regional last year. One of them won the national title (LSU), while another (Wake Forest) has two players projected to be in the top 10 picks of the MLB draft. In 2023, nine seeds advanced beyond the regional round, with only five of them reaching the Men's College World Series. It only takes five wins to get to Omaha, but it's not easy.
McDaniel: There are a lot of 2 and 3 qualifiers that I think can win regionals. Wake Forest, Duke (hot after winning the ACC tournament), Mississippi State, Dallas Baptist, LSU, San Diego and Vanderbilt are the two seeds I feel good about picking to move up to the supers.
