Can Giannis Antetokounmpo win his third MVP award this season? According to ESPN BET, he has the fourth-lowest odds in the NBA at 14-1, behind Nikola Jokic (-155), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+230) and Luka Doncic (+750), and just ahead of Jayson Tatum . (22-1).
Here's why he can: Antetokounmpo is quietly putting together the best offensive season of his career. He is one decimal point away from his highest scoring average at 30.8 points per game, while he has a career-high 6.3 APG and shoots a career-best 61.9% from the field. of his career.
In fact, Antetokounmpo is on pace to become the first player in NBA history to average at least 30 points per game on 60% shooting from the field over a full season. Not even the most dominant interior scorers in NBA history (not Shaq, not Kareem, not even Wilt) have been able to score with such high volume and such high efficiency at the same time.
Until recently, the reason Antetokounmpo couldn't win the MVP was that, for all his offensive brilliance, the Bucks' struggles on defense and therefore in the win-loss column would have been enough to keep him out of this.
But have you noticed what's been going on in Milwaukee since the All-Star break?
The Bucks have won six games in a row. But the story is not that they are winning, but how they are winning.
The Bucks are playing good old-fashioned defense!
They have held their six opponents since the break to an average of just 98.7 points per game. Antetokounmpo missed his last game, but in the previous four, none of his four opponents scored 100 points. In today's NBA, that is unheard of.
The Timberwolves have the stingiest defense in the NBA, allowing their opponents to score 106.5 points per game on average. No other team allows less than the Cavaliers' 109.4 points per game. The Bucks still have 20 games left to prove that this defensive renaissance is no fluke.
But if they do?
Then suddenly, Antetokounmpo is not only having one of the most notable offensive seasons in the NBA, but he has also reestablished himself as one of the league's best defensive anchors. And he would do it on a team with one of the best records in the league, because if the Bucks continue to keep teams under a hundred years old, they won't lose very often from here on out.
And how would this outcome, if it happens, compare Antetokounmpo to his peers?
Jokic is the favorite and the favorite to win the MVP, which would be his third in the last four seasons. For the second straight season, Jokic is a fraction of an assist per game away from averaging a triple-double. He also has his Nuggets within a game with the best record in the Western Conference, and his status as defending Finals MVP and de facto baddest man in the league also carries some weight in voters' minds. potentials.
Gilgeous-Alexander has kept his Thunder atop the Western Conference, currently 0.5 games behind the Timberwolves for the sole spot. He is an elite scorer and offensive creator, and he leads a Thunder team that was not expected to be on the brink of the promised land. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging over 31 points per game for the second straight season and also leads the NBA with 2.2 points per game.
Doncic is in the midst of his remarkable campaign, vying to become the first player in NBA history to average 30 points per game (league-leading 34.5 points per game), 9 points per game (9, 7 points per game) and 8 points per game (8.9 points per game). The Mavericks have the worst records among teams with a leading MVP candidate, and Doncic's +/- impact stats are also the weakest of the group, which really hurts his case.
Finally, Tatum's MVP case is the exact opposite of Doncic's. He is the best player on the best team, leading the Celtics in scoring (27.1 points per game) and rebounding (8.4 points per game), and he is a fraction away from also leading them in assists (4.8 points per game , behind Derrick White's 4.9 points per game). But Tatum simply doesn't have to do as much, on a team with four starting All-Stars, as the other leading MVP candidates. His stats are excellent and being the best player on the best team is quite an achievement, but ultimately it is unlikely to allow him to catch up to the frontrunners in the voting.
Ultimately, this award is Jokic's to lose. Barring a tragic ending in which the Nuggets completely lose their rhythm and/or Jokic is unavailable for many games, he will likely take his third award. But Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo are the only two competitors with the statistical footprint and team success to be able to take Jokic all the way.
Antetokounmpo is dealing with Achilles tendinitis that kept him out of Monday's game; If that causes him to miss much more time down the stretch, it could prevent him from closing the gap on his MVP rivals. But as the only one of the three most likely candidates with odds greater than 10-1, Antetokounmpo is the riskiest MVP candidate with the highest value at this point in the season.
How are things in the NBA awards race?
We have discussed the MVP candidates. Now, let's take a look at the state of the union for the futures market for the rest of the NBA's individual awards.
Rookie of the Year
Leader: Victor Wembanyama (-3000)
Co-leader: Chet Holmgren (18-1)
Risky positions of interest: Brandon Miller (400-1), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (1500-1)
After battling with Holmgren for much of the season, Wembanyama's historic last month all but sealed the deal. Wembanyama just became the only player in NBA history (not the only rookie, the only player) to block at least 50 shots and make at least 20 three-pointers in a nine-game span. In his last 30 games, dating back to December 28, Wembanyama has put together this stat line: 22.8 PPG (50.0 FG, 84.5 Ft.), 10.0 RPG, 3.9 APG, 3.8 BPG, 2.0 3PG (38.1 3P%) and 1.2 AAP.
While Holmgren is still having a great rookie season and helped lead the Thunder to the top of the standings, and Miller has greatly increased his scoring for the Hornets, this run is almost over.
Sixth man of the year
Leader: Monk Malik (-285)
On the hunt: Norman Powell (+550)
Longer shots of interest: Tim Hardaway Jr. (20-1), Bogdan Bogdanovic (50-1)
This race is the most competitive outside of the MVP race and has changed drastically since the last update last month. At the time, Hardaway was the favorite, but a disastrous shooting streak left him a longshot. After averaging 18.3 points per game through early February, his scoring has plummeted to 9.6 points per game on 34.0% shooting from the field since then.
Monk has taken charge with a solid month from February 2 to March 1, in which he averaged 19.8 points per game (50.0 shots per game) and 4.8 points per game while helping to maintain to the Kings in the playoff race.
Powell is a player to watch in the future. With Russell Westbrook sidelined (hand surgery), Powell could carry a bigger offensive load down the stretch for a Clippers team still fighting for first place.
For the same reasons, I would also keep an eye on Bogdanovic. With Trae Young (finger surgery) out, Bogdanovic has moved into the starting lineup with nominally more scoring opportunities. In practice, Bogdanovic has struggled with his shot in his last four starts, but if he can improve he could put up big numbers on the board. And he has come off the bench for most of the season, so he would still be eligible for this award even if he was a starter for the rest of the season.
Most Improved Player
Leader: Tyrese Maxey (-600)
On the hunt: Coby Blanco (+700)
Longest plane of interest: Alperen Sengun (18-1)
This is another race that appears to be largely decided. Maxey has been the favorite all season, but his consistent high-level play and his first All-Star Game appearance have now made him a prohibitive favorite.
White has also stepped up in a big way this season, taking over the injured Zach LaVine's role as the Bulls' primary offensive creator and proving he can be a consistent 20-plus points per game scorer.
Scottie Barnes' injury leaves him out of competition. Sengun had the second-lowest odds in last month's update, but a run of fresher play lowered his odds. Of note, however, Sengun exploded in his matchup against Wembanyama on Tuesday night, dropping a career-high 45 points in an iconic performance.
Defensive Player of the Year
Leader: Rudy Gobert (-700)
On the hunt: Wembanyama (+650)
Risky positions of interest: Holmgren (75-1), Antetokounmpo (200-1)
Another race in which the leader has such a big advantage that it seems almost over. Gobert continues to lead the league's best defense in Minnesota and it seems very likely that he will capture his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award by the end of the season.
Wembanyama is the only other player who has less than 20 to 1 odds of winning. That in itself is a huge change from last month's update, when Wembanyama had +5000 (50 to 1) odds of winning. His average of 5.6 BPG and 2.1 SPG over his last nine games, including a 10-block effort as part of a triple-double, has moved Wembanyama up the list despite his team's defensive woes.
The latter is important due to the option of advance payment in cash. Often, when there is a major change in the odds, the early payout option allows bettors to cash out less than the full prize. Wembanyama is unlikely to win, but if he is allowed to cash out a +5000 bet at odds of +650, it could be a significant prize. Keep this in mind with a player like Antetokounmpo, who is at 200-to-1 right now, but if he stays healthy and the Bucks continue their Bad Boy Pistons imitation on defense, his odds could get shorter before the season is over. season.
