Uh oh. Just when it looked like Man and Machine were finally going to merge into a unified force determined to destroy not each other but the bookmakers, we have a tough week in the divisional round. Man was 0-2, caught on Christian McCaffrey's rushing attempts, while Machine at least saved a 1-1 record, earning his only win by correctly predicting that Gus Edwards would receive fewer than 13.5 rushing opportunities.
However, man is resilient and a machine does not even have the ability to understand the emotion of disappointment, so we will advance to the championship round and fight each other once again in the gamer accessories market. Hopefully, you, the bettor, will benefit the most from this matchup.
Since you prevailed on Edwards' play last week, Machine, the board is yours. Shoot.
Miguel: I appreciate you mentioning my success (Edwards) and not my mistake (Patrick Mahomes with 36.5+ pass attempts) from last week, but here's the thing: I'm going to double down and run with Mahomes again. Same line. Similar reasoning. Last week's loss was a bit of a blow, as the Chiefs ran 47 offensive plays, which was a season low by six plays (they averaged 60.1 plays in their previous 18 games).
Kansas City still sanctioned a pass-first offense after operating the league's most scripted passing scheme during the regular season. Including last season's low 23, Mahomes is averaging 36.7 pass attempts per game this season. That number jumps to 40.0 per game in Kansas City's six losses (over 38 in five of those six), which is notable considering the Chiefs are 3.5-point road underdogs. Mahomes is averaging 40.1 attempts per game in four career games against Baltimore (over 37 in three of the four, all three of which were wins). The Ravens faced 37.1 pass attempts per game during the regular season (second most), and 10 of 18 opponents reached 37 attempts. Mahomes OVER 36.5 pass attempts (-110) is the play.
tyler: My first work really demonstrates the difference between man and machine. You see, a machine doesn't have eyes, so it can't see how poorly Mecole Hardman Jr. has played and how often he actively hurts his offense when given opportunities. The fumble against the Bills SHOULD be the last straw with Andy Reid. Ask 100 Kansas City Chiefs fans if they would agree with Mecole Hardman never touching the ball again this season and 100 of them would say “Absolutely!”
In fact, I bet if we gave Patrick Mahomes truth serum, he'd be singing the same tune. I know the Chiefs don't have many options, but at this point in the season, against this caliber of opponent, Kansas City can't risk the potential disaster of putting the ball in Hardman's hands. I'm projecting that he will only see a few snaps in this game, and when he is on the field they use him as a decoy or run to clear routes with his vertical speed so Mahomes can target someone else. I know that's what Chiefs fans want. Mecole Hardman Jr. LESS than 11.5 rushing yards + receiving yards (-115).
Miguel: I wouldn't underestimate the awareness of the machine, as my Hardman projection for this weekend is almost identical to that line. Of course, if Kadarius Toney is sidelined again this week, I might lean more towards the end. After all, the Chiefs have made it clear that they are committed to a shaky wide receiver game (aside from you, Rashee Rice). Anyway, I'm going to keep it simple for my second play with a very direct defensive pillar who was a winner for us several times during the regular season: Roquan Smith OVER 2.5 assists (-135). Smith has played 97% of Baltimore's defensive snaps through 17 active games this season. Baltimore's standout off-ball linebacker averaged 4.5 assists during those games, having made three in 15 of 17. That's an 88% hit rate and makes the intensity we're getting in this pretty amazing. Expect Smith to rack up plenty of helpers against Kansas City. That's all from me. Bring us home, Tyler!
tyler: Take a look at the last five games the Detroit Lions have played and you'll notice that one column in the box score is particularly strong: opposing QB passing yards. As of Week 16 of the regular season, here are the numbers for the QBs this Lions defense faces:
Week 16 – Nick Mullens: 22/36, 411 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT
Week 17 – Dak Prescott: 26/38, 345 yards, 2 TD, INT
Week 18 – Nick Mullens: 30/44, 396 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
Wild Card Round: Matthew Stafford: 25/36, 367 yards, 2 TDs
Divisional Round – Baker Mayfield: 26/41, 349 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
Since 345 yards is the LOWEST amount allowed by Aaron Glenn's defense over the last month, Man will happily bet on Brock Purdy OVER 276.5 passing yards. Purdy was far from his best against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round, but the wet weather was a legitimate factor. It clearly affected his accuracy on more than a few throws.
Fortunately for the 49ers, the weather forecast for Sunday is impeccable. It will be warm and rain-free, providing optimal conditions for Kyle Shanahan's offense. The potential absence of Deebo Samuel is a concern, but even if he is unavailable, the Niners can still pick apart this pass defense. His availability would only be the cherry on top of the confidence in this play.
