The college basketball gods looked kindly on fans across the country this Saturday, giving us three matchups between ranked teams. Just like college football Saturdays, you don't have to get off the couch. Just sit back and enjoy!
The marquee matchup features the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and No. 3 Duke Blue Devils facing off in a rare late-season non-conference game. It's a neutral issue in Washington, DC. These teams rank first and second, respectively, in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin. Meanwhile, the Big 12 will be on full display as a pair of former No. 1 teams meet for the first time this season when the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats hit the road to face the No. 2 Houston Cougars. And don't go to sleep early! In western Utah, the No. 23 BYU Cougars will host the No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones as both teams seek prime position for the Big 12 tournament.
Note: Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
No. 4 Arizona at No. 2 Houston (-5.5)
Out/of: 139.5
Saturday, 3 pm ET, ABC
This is as “big on big” as it gets. Both teams are physical and tough defensively. One of the biggest things to note here is that Arizona will lose an important piece in freshman Koa Peat. He missed Wednesday's game against BYU and will also not play in this contest due to a leg injury suffered against Texas Tech.
At home, Houston will control the pace, which is slow (354th in adjusted pace) and gives up the fewest points per game at home at 54.5. Without Peat, the Wildcats' second-leading scorer at 13.8 per game, Arizona's offense will suffer. Offensively, Houston will face the best three-pointers. and 2-point shot defense in the Big 12. The Cougars also rank second-to-last in the nation in average 2-point shot attempted distance. That will likely make them fall short of their normal shooting numbers against an elite defense.
Add to the mix the fact that Houston doesn't shoot threes particularly well and also ranks 358th in free throw rate. This feels like a failure every time.
The bet: UNDER 139.5
No. 1 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 3 Duke
Out/outside: 148.5
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
The Wolverines have no observable flaws and overwhelm their opponents for 40 minutes. On paper, these teams look similar statistically, but I think there is a bit of a gap between them, particularly on the defensive end.
Michigan is the best team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Duke ranks second in that category, but its numbers are inflated against a weaker ACC. Eleven of the ACC's 18 teams rank outside the top 70 in adjusted offensive efficiency, with three of them outside the top 100. Additionally, Duke's scoring numbers take a hit off Cameron Indoor (86.7 points per game compared to just 79.2 in road/neutral games). The Wolverines' defense will give the Blue Devils all they can handle.
Michigan may be better off on the road this season. They are a perfect 13-0 in games outside of Ann Arbor and only three of those games have been decided by fewer than 10 points, with an average margin of victory of 16.3 points. Both of Duke's losses this season came on the road.
Michigan is the deeper and more experienced team, and they are the better free throw team. The Wolverines are also a better three-point shooting team on the road. If this game were at Duke, I would have a slightly different feeling about the Blue Devils. But it's not, so I'll leave it here with Michigan.
The bet: Michigan -2.5
No. 6 Iowa State (-3.5) at No. 23 BYU
Out of/U: 155.5
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
The Cyclones come into this game on a high after a huge comeback victory over Houston in their last game on Monday night. Now they must go on the road to face a Cougars team that averages 80 points per game at home.
This is a bad place for cyclones. They have struggled on the road in conference play, as they are only 3-3 and against the number. Their three wins are against three bottom-ranked teams in the conference (Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Baylor, all ranked outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency). The home-road splits for Iowa State don't bode well either. His scoring drops from 87.0 points per game at home to 79.1 points per game on the road. Additionally, his field goal and 3-point shooting are far from Ames.
Meanwhile, the splits heavily favor the Cougars, as they shoot 38.2% from beyond the arc at home but just 33% elsewhere. BYU needs this game or it can all but forget about a top-4 seed and a berth to the quarterfinals in the Big 12 tournament next month. This is a place where freshman AJ Dybantsa can continue to make his case for National Player of the Year, especially with even more on his plate following Richie Saunders' season-ending ACL injury.
I love the home dog here in a disappointing spot for Iowa State. There's a good chance BYU will win this game outright, so I'll put a little on the money line as well.
The bet: BYU +3.5
