If, on April 6, the Big Ten has ended its quarter-century national championship drought, that won't change an uncomfortable fact: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, no conference has done less with more in the NCAA tournament.
The Big Ten has averaged exactly eight NCAA tournament bids in each of the last five seasons. There are 40 teams in total, and all 40 went home with a loss. This 18-team conference's record in the Big Dance is just six games over .500 (46-40), which should be impossible with an average seeding rate below six (5.97 to be exact).
So either five selection committees have underperformed when necessary, or the league itself has. And, well, we all know where the bodies are buried: No. 8 seed Loyola Chicago over top seed Illinois in 2021 (round of 32), No. 15 Saint Peter's over third seed Purdue in 2022 (Sweet 16), No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson over top seed Purdue in 2023 (round of 64). You get the idea.
But it started to change last March. Four of the eight Big Ten teams made it to the second weekend, and Michigan State reached the Elite Eight. For a change, the conference took advantage of its seed across the board.
We'll see in March (and April?) if that was a trend or something exceptional. This bracketologist opts for the former.
The Big Ten begins conference play on December 2.
Final Four contenders
Michigan Wolverines
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Illinois fighting Illini
0:49
Highlights: Kentucky falls to Michigan State in Champions Classic
The Wildcats shoot 35 percent from the field to the Spartans' 50 percent as they struggle to keep up in an 83-66 loss at Madison Square Garden.
Michigan is ranked first in December's first rankings and Purdue is ranked first in both news service polls. Both are legitimate national championship contenders. At least two others look good enough to win four games and play until April.
Probable tournament teams
Indiana Hoosiers
USC Trojans
Nebraska Corn Shellers
Wisconsin Badgers
UCLA Bruins
1:15
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights
Indiana and Nebraska are the most interesting names in this group. The Hoosiers haven't done well in a long time, winning just one tournament game in the last decade. In retrospect, three Sweet 16 teams under Tom Crean between 2012 and 2016 look pretty good. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers remain the only powerhouse team in the conference to never win an NCAA tournament. That has a real chance to change in 2026.
Possible tournament teams
Ohio State Buckeyes
Northwestern Wildcats
Washington Huskies
Oregon Ducks
Maryland Turtles
0:48
Arrinten Page wins for Northwestern as time runs out
Arrinten Page wins for Northwestern as time runs out
If form holds up, at least one couple in this group will be smiling on selection Sunday. Ohio State was left out of the previous group and should make it. Even if the Buckeyes are the only ones in this group, the conference will have double-digit teams dancing for the first time.
sleeping team
Iowa Hawkeye
1:17
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: Game Highlights
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: Game Highlights
It's hard not to be fascinated by the Hawkeyes, who are transitioning from the scoring machines of the Fran McCaffery era to the sub-350 tempo of the Ben McCollum era. Iowa fans will accept any outcome in deep races, and so far, so good. The Hawkeyes open Big Ten play in the top 30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Long shots
Penn State Nittany Lions
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Minnesota Golden Moles
Rutgers may never recruit players like Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey again and, as such, will always have an uphill road to the NCAA tournament. Penn State and Minnesota may be good on a regular basis, but the sheer number of teams they need to overcome in such a deep league is daunting.
Key games to watch
Illinois vs. Tennessee in Nashville (Saturday)
Michigan at Michigan State (January 30)
Michigan at Purdue (February 17)
Michigan vs. Duke in Washington, DC (February 21)
Michigan State at Purdue (Feb. 26)
