So you completed your parenthesis. Now what?
Since First Four games don't count toward group scores and the round of 64 is still one life away (it sure feels that way to me), you have thoughts and predictions you want to post. Between hot takes, Cinderella wannabes, and agonizing 5-on-12 matchups, you can get a better idea of how to predict the NCAA Tournament with betting.
Deep down, you know that your group won't be perfect after Day 1 and probably won't even make it through opening afternoon. Mine neither! It will likely be completely destroyed by the end of the first weekend. But betting on the tournament allows you to take multiple shots on the same team (maybe you think their first-round matchup is tough, but they have an easy path to the Final Four if they make it through, or maybe you can project something you think will be popular in group selections, but the odds seem better at bookmakers).
Consider this your one-stop quick shopping experience, comparing brackets with bets and providing tips to help you prepare for the crash course that is March Madness.
How to use your braces to place your bets
With the variety of options available, you can customize your futures portfolio to match your group. If you have the top four finishers in the Final Four, you can also bet them all together on ESPN BET at +3929 (so a $10 bet would win just under $400). It would be an extremely chalky pool that a lot of people would score points for, but here you get a payout of almost 40-1.
ESPN BET also has open markets for teams to reach the Sweet 16, Elite 8, win their region and reach the Final Four, reach the title game or win the national championship. Of course, that's in addition to each individual game having sides, totals, and moneylines.
This also opens up a great opportunity for hedging. Hypothetically, if your group is doing well enough to be one or two right games away from winning a group for a big payout, you could bet against your group at the end of the tournament to guarantee some wins. Many bracket pools are extremely heavy, so the payout is like that of a big parlay – fading just one game at normal odds helps even the scales a bit.
How the bets are similar to your group
You still need to plan future matchups and project the rest of the tournament regardless of your method. If a team has many quality opponents in its region, it may not be worth including it in the Final Four for its group. either betting on reaching the Final Four. (Example: UConn is the prohibitive favorite in ESPN's Tournament Challenge game, but is also considered to have the toughest region of the four 1 seeds)
As she completes her painting, the temptation for Cinderella to advance well into March is palpable. But when cooler heads prevail, it's worth remembering that most Cinderella clocks still read midnight. The same goes for betting.
Since 2015, the underdogs have held their own in the first round, covering the spread at a rate of 54%, and in typical “surprised seed” matchups, the trend becomes even more noticeable. Underdogs ranked 9-13 in that span are 72-55-1 ATS, or against the spread, in their round-of-64 games, a coverage rate of 57%.
But as the tournament progresses, regression appears and we see things stabilize. In the second round, the losers are 61-62-3 against the spread. They are also 29-30-1 in the Sweet 16.
How group bets are different
Inter-group selections go against your friends, family, colleagues, and co-workers, and you can use their prejudices to your advantage. For example, if you live in Connecticut, your pool probably has a much higher proportion of UConn title picks, so it's worth looking elsewhere for your champion. But if you're a Purdue alum and you're at a pool with college friends, maybe UConn is a little underrated. When you bet, you are only faced with the bookmakers' odds, so things are much more balanced.
There is only one way to complete a bracket: choose a winner for each game. Even the games you have the least confidence in and the regions where you just can't decide who should make it to the Final Four. With betting, you can choose your spots and trust the teams you trust the most.
If you believe in a long shot, it may be more beneficial to bet on it to make a big run than to pick it in your pool. One of my sleeper picks this year is New Mexico, which finished in the top 25 in the NET and KenPom rankings, but came in at No. 11. The Lobos are currently favorites over Clemson on ESPN BET, and are in the region with supposedly the ” worst” first and second place in Arizona that has had the occasional failure. I think putting New Mexico in the Final Four of my group is an unnecessary reach, but +2000 seems like a good price to get to the Final Four.
Betting on the women's tournament
If you're looking to bet on the women's tournament, the first thing that stands out more than Zach Edey from the crowd is how chalky some of the future odds are. Undefeated South Carolina is -140 to cut the nets on ESPN BET (that's a 58% implied chance of the Gamecocks winning six in a row). Last year, the Gamecocks also entered the tournament undefeated and were -210 favorites to win it all.
In fact, only eight teams are 25-1 or less to win the 2024 women's title, compared to 13 on the men's side.
The only two other teams even remotely close to South Carolina are last season's runners-up, Iowa and LSU. After reaching the title game last season, Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes regained another Big Ten tournament title and earned a first-place finish in this year's tournament. Despite being in the same region and the Tigers being ranked third, LSU is +750 to win it all, while Clark and Iowa are +500.
Here's Clark's potential path to the Final Four:
Winner of Holy Cross with 16 seeds and UT Martin with 16 seeds
Winner of West Virginia (eight seed) and Princeton (nine seed)
Probably fourth-ranked Kansas State or fifth-ranked Colorado.
A possible title game rematch with third-seeded LSU or second-seeded UCLA in the Elite Eight
If you want to bet on Clark this postseason, here are a few things to keep in mind: He's scored more than 20 points in every game and is averaging 31.9 for a Hawkeyes team that leads all of Division I in offensive efficiency . Iowa also plays at a breakneck pace, averaging 77 possessions per game, 17th in DI, according to ESPN Analytics, and a mark that would be the highest among all men's teams. It's certainly an environment that sets up well for game totals to be reviewed, but be sure to keep an eye on Clark's points for a given matchup – it can be fun to root for the over, but if it's anywhere near 35, it's probably It's not worth supporting.
