Considering they have won six of the last seven Premier League titles and have a seemingly endless talent pipeline, it should come as no surprise that Manchester City are top of the bookies and have a significant chance of winning the league once again. But what might come as a surprise is that the Sky Blues are also one of the leaders in the relegation market.
Manchester City leads the field of “League Winners” with odds of +120, closely followed by Arsenal at +180 and less closely by Liverpool at +700.
The odds drop significantly from there, with Chelsea and Manchester United tied at +2200, according to ESPN BET.
Much of the public is counting on City to win a fifth consecutive title this season, having already secured 26% of tickets on ESPN BET, 18.2% on BetMGM and 50% on DraftKings, with the latter two leading the field.
However, it is Arsenal who are taking the lion's share of the money, with 54% on ESPN, 37% on DraftKings and 31% on FanDuel, while Liverpool are also making noise on ESPN BET with 18% of the money.
In contrast, Manchester City has just 8% of the shares in ESPN BET.
The club is projected to be as dominant as it has been in recent seasons, but its odds to win it all have fallen from -120 in the mid-May opener to their current position.
The line moves and betting action against City are a result of the pending financial regulation charges against them, with a verdict, including an appeal, expected to be reached before the end of the season.
If the Premier League finds Manchester City guilty of some or all of the infringements, the club could face a massive points deduction for the season or even expulsion from the league. What that means for futures punters will depend on the bookmakers' internal rules.
At ESPN BET and most major bookmakers, if a team is relegated as a result of a points deduction that puts them in the relegation zone at the end of the season, relevant bets on the relegation market will be graded as winners.
However, if a team is expelled from the league by its governing body before the end of the season, regardless of points, those bets will be considered void and refunded.
As a result, many punters are flocking to Manchester City's 'To Be Relegated' market in anticipation of the points-reduction route – at +1500, the club has a 27% betting lead and a 45% share on ESPN BET.
The same is true at BetMGM, which has 24.2% of its relegation tickets on Man City as its biggest liability for that market; the bookmaker has consequently moved the team's relegation odds from +1600 at the opening to +1000.
The money at stake is not insignificant for bookmakers either, as the Premier League has proven to be a solid betting market in the United States.
“When it comes to domestic football, the Premier League is by far the most popular league, with historic clubs and the biggest stars in the game. We expect the new season to build on the strong momentum of the Champions League, Copa America and Euro Cup, where the biggest games attracted more attention than most MLB games on a given day,” ESPN BET sportsbook director Patrick Jay told ESPN.
“The time difference between Europe and the US also creates favorable viewing windows and opportunities to engage with our customers without directly competing with American sports.”
The Premier League season kicks off on Friday with Manchester United (-200) taking on Fulham (+450). Manchester City (-125) begins its title defense on Sunday against Chelsea (+280).
