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When Lionel Messi made the fateful decision to join Inter Miami CF last season, he not only instantly elevated his new club's play, but also immensely raised the profile of the 30-year-old Major League Soccer.
Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the American sports betting industry, another emerging entity, has seen a lot of action surrounding the all-time football great and his team in South Florida. Chris Schlosser, MLS senior vice president of startups, told ESPN that the league saw record betting handle last year with “really nice growth in the top books” from 2022 to 2023.
Last summer, Messi, along with his former Barcelona teammates Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets, arrived in Miami to a team that was at the bottom of the league standings and would need a small miracle to reach the MLS Cup playoffs. which ultimately did not succeed.
Looking ahead to 2024, Messi & Co. signed another former Barça superstar, Luis Suárez, to bolster what is now the undisputed most talented team in the league. He has Inter Miami as the clear favorite to win the MLS Cup this season, showing odds of +300 on ESPN BET, with some stores offering odds as short as +250.
BetMGM leads the league with 15.1% of its MLS futures tickets on the Herons, while DraftKings reports a whopping 83% of bets and 81% of wins. Anticipating the hype around Messi's team, DraftKings director of racing and sports betting operations Johnny Avello and his team say they launched MLS Cup futures before anyone else in the sports betting market.
“Last year, when Messi came to Miami, they really had no chance of winning it all, very little chance,” Avello said. “We took a lot of action against them even at that time. So yeah, I'm not surprised.”
Inter Miami, of course, is getting a lot of attention at the only legal online sportsbook in Florida, Hard Rock Bet, which reports that the Herons have about three times as much money to win the championship as the next closest club. City of Orlando.
However, not everyone believes that Inter Miami is the team to beat this season. FanDuel reports that the club is second in its betting division with 18% of bets and 19% of wins, behind FC Cincinnati (24% of bets and 32% of wins).
In fact, other MLS teams with far less hype than Miami are drawing strong action on the books: BetMGM reports that Colorado, Columbus, Orlando, Portland and Cincinnati are their biggest liabilities.
“Messi and Miami are going to take a lot of bets,” BetMGM commercial manager Seamus Magee said by email. “We don't try to book based on what we need, we are guided by what our best bettors tell us. But Messi showed last year, almost simply by going out on the field, that he can transform the way a team plays around him in this league.”
Being the big favorite is nothing new for the Argentine legend: from 2009 to 2021, every time Messi's Barcelona were favorites to win LaLiga, they had negative money, with -167 in 2011-12 representing the highest preseason favorite status of the club at the time. , according to ESPN Stats & Information.
That said, top-flight European soccer is known for its disparity (Manchester City opened this season as -175 favorites to win the Premier League, for example), while MLS is part of an American sports ecosystem that features systems in place (i.e. playoffs, drafts, salary caps) to promote parity. For comparison, the Los Angeles Dodgers are +400 to win the 2024 World Series, while the Boston Celtics entered this season at +380 to win the NBA Finals.
“Miami is not a sure thing at 3-1 to win it all. If they were a sure thing, they would be less or even money, but they are not,” Avello said. “This is where they belong.”
The biggest factor working against Inter Miami's odds of winning it all is age. Messi is 36 years old, Alba, Busquets and Suárez are all in the same neighborhood; Soccer players that age are not usually injury-free for an entire season.
The second most important factor is the schedule. In addition to the MLS regular season, Inter Miami will also play matches in the Concacaf Champions Cup and the relatively new Leagues Cup, which features teams from MLS and Liga MX. Messi also continues to play for Argentina, who will fight to win the prestigious Copa América this summer.
It all adds up to Messi and his former Barcelona compatriots not playing as much as Miami would like this year, meaning the rest of the team will have to pick up the slack.
“If Messi gets hurt, their odds will plummet. If they're pumping teams three or four goals with their full lineup, they'll probably see their odds go down,” Magee said. “Messi is not the question mark on this team… It will be interesting to see how those navigate [cup] “The matches and the absence of Messi during international matches.”
Regardless of Inter Miami's performance this season, there is a clear winner here: MLS.
“The best part about all of this is it gives another angle for people to talk about the game, the league, the upcoming season and this debate about whether Miami's odds are too high, too low or right,” Schlosser said. “Overall, we believe that sports betting can help improve the fan experience and get fans more involved in our games.”
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