A recent college football ruling against the NCAA could end up having a considerable impact on the future of college baseball.
On Wednesday, a federal judge in Tennessee granted an injunction to Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, allowing him to seek another year of NCAA eligibility. That means a college athlete's time in college does not count toward their overall years of NCAA eligibility.
If confirmed, this would mean that a player who spends two years at a college could begin his NCAA career as a freshman with four years of eligibility remaining instead of the current two.
While Pavia's case is tied to an SEC football player, pending a final ruling, the change could profoundly affect college baseball, the MLB draft and even the minor leagues. I spoke with a dozen MLB scouts and college coaches about the potential consequences.
An ACC assistant baseball coach summed up his thinking: “I wonder what's coming next from administrators. College baseball will be a lot different if juco doesn't count.”
Here's how everyone involved at all levels could feel the impact.
the players
This decision is clearly positive for amateur players. If seasons at a college stop counting toward the NCAA standard of four seasons of play in five years, players could use the path to better align their best college seasons at the best schools to get the most playing time. and the best monetary result (NIL, salary). or draft signing bonus), with the flexibility to change schools each season and probably earn a free graduate degree or two along the way.
Here is a scenario:
High School (age 18): Player turns down a six-figure draft signing bonus out of high school.
College Year 1 (age 19): The player does not have a starting position at the Power 4 school he committed to in high school, and instead of playing part-time, he redshirts to preserve his eligibility. (This player is also draft eligible every year of this scenario except this one.)
College Year 2 (age 20): Player moves on to a college, where he starts and progresses as a prospect with regular reps.
College Year 3 (age 21): The player's progression continues and he commits to a mid-major college during his sophomore year of college.
Fourth Year in College (age 22): Player is a redshirt freshman having a great year at a high school.
College Year 5 (age 23): Player transfers to an SEC school as a sophomore and receives an NIL package of over $100,000.
College Year 6 (age 24): Returns/transfers to SEC school as a junior.
College Year 7 (age 25): Returns/transfers to SEC school as a senior.
There are other scenarios, such as a graduate year after high school, a college redshirt, a doctor redshirt, etc., that mean that could someday I will see a player celebrate his 30th birthday while still playing college baseball.
One of the key points here that would encourage players to consider this path is that they would be draft eligible in almost every season of their college career. This opens up the opportunity to go to the pros when their stock is highest, as MLB rules allow players to be drafted after each junior college season or college season where they turn 21 before January 1. August. In the system, players often have to decide between accepting what is offered to them as high school seniors or waiting three years to become draft eligible again. Until recently, with NIL and soon revenue sharing, these players would not make any money between those two decisions.
However, there are some downsides for players: It would be increasingly rare for freshmen to contribute at top schools, so top schools will likely offer fewer scholarships to high school players and it will become very competitive for spots. on the list of these best universities, exacerbating something that was already starting to happen with the recent set of workforce reforms.
University programs
College baseball would see the biggest immediate impact with this change, as it is not a primary path to professional baseball at this time. In fact, in the last five MLB drafts, there has only been one first-round pick, one second-round pick, and three third-round picks selected directly out of junior colleges. It's more common to see players transfer from junior colleges to four-year colleges and then go early in the draft, but that's still seen as a back road at best. Both paths from college to the pros would become more common by eliminating the two years of eligibility burn and infusing the juco level with talent looking to maximize future options.
The feedback I received from MLB scouts and college coaches about what this means for four-year schools showed that the ramifications would also be felt up to the highest levels of Division I baseball.
Top schools would have rosters with a mix of top draft prospects of a typical college age and “pro” college players in their 20s and 30s, with the latter coming and going almost every season.
In fact, a scout texted me the Pavia starter and added, “The NCAA just got a minor league.” I texted him to clarify: “Will the SEC only be made up of big draft guys and 26-year-olds?” “More or less.”
There have already been some stories this summer of top high school recruits (mid-to-high six-figure bonus offers from MLB teams) being passed over by top college programs late in the process in favor of a third-year college student. year he transferred to receive a six-figure NIL package, he will likely sign a professional contract after one season.
That transfer is almost certainly a better player for that year than the incoming freshman, but it demands NIL resources for just one season of performance. We could see more short-term decisions like this made by coaches as their salaries continue to rise: winning an extra series could be worth millions. There remains less incentive to develop players in college over multiple seasons from a small role to a larger one, and at the same time, it would be more difficult to convince a promising prospect to use a year of eligibility for a part-time role.
major league teams
Currently, there is a fairly high bar that teams must clear when offering a bonus to entice a player to drop out of high school, often between $500,000 and $1 million. We've started to see some examples of players choosing college baseball over professional baseball and NIL offers play a big role. I could see a world where junior colleges are strictly for development and playing time, top four-year college programs become comparable to Low-A in level of competition and professional environment, and mid-major colleges are a station of step between the two.
Seeing a 21-year-old top draft prospect regularly facing a 26-year-old college expert before the draft would allow MLB teams to feel better about what that top prospect will look like in the minor leagues, thus increasing the return of the perceived investment to make in the player. The scouts I spoke to were also worried about their jobs because of the certainty those types of matchups would create. At top college programs, where there are comprehensive videos and graphics of every field along with rich data that often rivals MLB stadiums, the opinion of in-stadium scouts might matter less when analytical models could quantify even more information. key used for draft day decisions.
If the major college conferences begin to replicate much of what the minors will offer, then the talent in the minors would also decline to some extent. I don't think this will affect Double A or Triple A at all; there will simply be two similar paths that lead to the upper minor leagues and the big leagues.
MLB teams would still regularly draft and sign top players from high school and top four-year colleges in the early rounds as they do now, but the potent combination of newly signed minor leaguers, the transfer portal/ NIL and junior colleges as a training ground that does not utilize NCAA eligibility could lead to fewer players signing for sub-six-figure bonuses to develop in the minor leagues, as the benefits would potentially be greater in college.
Think about it from a young player's perspective: getting a free education, a big chunk of his potential revenue-sharing/NIL signing bonus next season, and a chance to increase that eventual bonus dramatically, when it's possibly his only big day. payment in baseball. — could be the smart move. The other option is to receive a six-figure bonus for what could be only a few years of playing in the minors before being released. Teams that take a mass approach to the draft with a number of college players with low to mid-six-figure bonuses might have to adjust their strategy.
Changing how teams can get talent from the amateur levels through their systems to the major leagues could make a big enough difference to alter both team strategies and, eventually, how the draft works. So you can imagine a world where this series of changes leads to a draft with more high-end players who largely go straight to High-A or Double-A and may be just a year away from the major leagues when they are drafted. . Does it lead to a shorter draft? A modified drafting and tracking system? A loan system like football? Is MLB becoming more involved in the college game, perhaps subsidizing scholarships or holding the MLB draft in Omaha around the College World Series?
