The 2024 WNBA playoffs begin on Sept. 22. If the regular season ended today, what would it take for each of the eight teams currently in playoff position to win the league title?
The first-place New York Liberty, who have won seven straight and are the only team so far to clinch a playoff spot, simply have to continue being who they have been: the best team in the league this season.
“I think what I want to see from our team is that we continue to get better,” New York's Breanna Stewart said after the Liberty's 94-74 win over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday. “Everyone keeps saying, 'Oh, you guys clinched the playoffs. Why are you still playing hard?' We want to keep that No. 1 seed, we want home-field advantage. And you saw that today, with two quarters we held Dallas under 20.
“I feel like we haven't done anything yet. Our record is excellent, of course, but there are many things we need to improve and we don't want to reach peak performance too soon.”
The Las Vegas Aces are in fourth place in the standings, but as two-time defending champions, they are perceived as next in line for favorites to win the 2024 title.
Since the WNBA was founded in 1997, the league hasn’t been known for many major playoff upsets or unexpected teams winning the title. But it has happened. In 2021, the No. 6-seeded Chicago Sky, who had a .500 regular-season record that year, won the championship against the No. 5-seeded Phoenix Mercury.
But since the league moved in 2016 to a playoff format that ranks the top eight teams at-large (rather than splitting the field between the Eastern and Western conferences with the top four teams from each), every title except the 2021 one has been won by a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Still, making the playoffs at least means a team has a chance to win it all. Below, we look at how the current top eight teams stack up as title contenders, ranked by our expectations of winning the championship.
1. New York Liberty (24-4)
Current position in the standings: 1
Previous titles: None
New York has played for the title five times, including a 3-1 loss in last season’s WNBA Finals to Vegas. The Liberty reached the Commissioner’s Cup final in June, falling to Minnesota after having won the title last year. Overall, New York has been very impressive in 2024, getting high-level performances from point guard Sabrina Ionescu and forwards Stewart and Jonquel Jones. The Liberty and coach Sandy Brondello also have a good sense of what they need and can consistently get from their bench. That was on display again Tuesday, as Ionescu was out with a sore neck and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton has yet to return from knee surgery. But the experience of playing together for another season has also bolstered the Liberty’s confidence.
The Liberty have had their disappointments as a franchise, but the key is to stay focused on the present and the opportunity at hand. This group is very capable of doing that. New York fans have waited a long time, but this could be their reward.
2. Las Vegas Aces (17-9)
Current position in the standings: 4
Previous titles: 2022, 2023
As things stand now, the Aces and Liberty (who finished 1st and 2nd last season in the standings) could meet in the semifinals, which would be a huge coup. Las Vegas lost just six regular-season games last season, so this year's team has struggled more. Point guard Chelsea Gray's absence from the lineup until July 2 due to injury had a big impact on why Las Vegas didn't play as well as expected early in the season.
But with Gray back, A'ja Wilson in the midst of an almost certain MVP season and Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum also among the league's elite, the Aces remain a formidable force. The return of veteran Tiffany Hayes from retirement to join the Aces also helps, as does Vegas' championship experience under coach Becky Hammon. And perhaps it will benefit the Aces that they are not considered the clear favorites this year.
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Current position in the standings: 3
Previous titles: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017
The Lynx lead the WNBA in defensive rating and won the Commissioner's Cup final against New York in June. Napheesa Collier is one of the league's best players, averaging a double-double. Fellow forward Alanna Smith has improved on her season from last year in Chicago, and guard Courtney Williams, who was also previously with the Sky, has also been a nice addition to Minnesota. Guard Kayla McBride is having one of her best seasons in her 11th year in the league.
The Lynx just signed forward Myisha Hines-Allen, who won a title with Washington in 2019. She's a reliable post presence who should fit in well with what the Lynx do. Minnesota won all four of its titles under current coach Cheryl Reeve, so she knows the steps to get there.
Current position in the standings: 2
Previous titles: none
The Sun's center trio of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones has been bolstered by career-best seasons from guards DiJonai Carrington and Tyasha Harris. The Sun, who started the season with a 9-0 record, signed guard Marina Mabrey on July 17 to add more scoring spark, and she has played well so far for Connecticut.
The Sun remain one of the league's most solid defensive teams. Can they maintain that level and improve a little more on offense? And is there anything this team can do a little better than past Sun teams that came close to winning championships but could never break through? The Sun have never gotten that extra “break” that might have tipped the scales in their favor in past WNBA Finals appearances. But led by seasoned veterans Thomas and Bonner, they'll fight to the finish with anyone.
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5. Mercury Phoenix (15-13)
Current position in the standings: 6
Previous titles: 2007, 2009, 2014
The Mercury haven't really done much to deserve the benefit of the doubt so far this season, and we're putting them ahead of Indiana here, even though the Fever swept Phoenix 3-0. What's going on? This could be Diana Taurasi's final season, which could be a motivating factor for her and the team.
There's also previous WNBA championship experience with players like Taurasi, center Brittney Griner, guard/forward Kahleah Copper (with Chicago) and guard Natasha Cloud (with Washington). The team recently added forward Monique Billings on a seven-day contract; if she remains on the roster, she'll fill a need on the interior. Finally, there's a sense that the Mercury haven't played their best, so perhaps that's yet to come.
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Current position in the standings: 5
Previous titles: 2004, 2010, 2018, 2020
The Storm brought in veterans like forward Nneka Ogwumike and guard Skylar Diggins-Smith in the offseason. They also brought in forward Gabby Williams, who played for the Storm the past two seasons and is now rejoining the WNBA after spending time preparing with the French national team that won Olympic silver. Center Ezi Magbegor, who won bronze with Australia at the Olympics, has developed into an elite rim protector. And, of course, the Storm have star guard Jewell Loyd, part of the U.S. gold-medal team.
Can Seattle put the pieces together well enough to make a run at a title in the post-Sue Bird era? The Storm are in the middle of the pack in offensive rating, so they'd need to improve in that area. Williams can make a pretty good defense even better.
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Current position in the standings: 7
Previous titles: 2012
By now, everyone knows one of the most repeated facts of this season: The Fever haven’t made the playoffs since 2016. That’s their stated goal for 2024. It seemed ambitious during a rough first month. But look what’s happened since then: Since June 13, the Fever are 10-5. The streak includes three wins over Phoenix, plus victories over New York, Minnesota and Seattle. Indiana’s record in that stretch is better than that of the Mercury (9-7) and the Storm (9-6).
But we're keeping the Fever at No. 7 on this list for now because it's a huge leap to go from a seven-season playoff drought to a title, led by stars who are in just their first (Caitlin Clark) and second (Aliyah Boston) WNBA seasons. But there's some real playoff fever starting to build for the Fever, and that's the first step.
8. Chicago Sky (11-16)
Current position in the standings: 8
Previous titles: 2021
After the first week back from the Olympics, the Sky will likely be more focused on the team just below them in the standings, the Atlanta Dream, than on the idea of winning a title. The Dream could make a comeback in the playoffs, trying to get past Chicago or Indiana. The idea of the Sky having a run like they did in 2021 is unlikely, as that was a much more experienced team.
Still, rookie post players Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso each have an NCAA title on their resumes, and the Sky look their best when they're both having good games at the same time. Reese is already one of the WNBA's best rebounders. Guard Chennedy Carter has led the Sky in scoring in her return to the WNBA. But Chicago as a team is in the bottom three in the league in scoring, making it hard to see the Sky winning three straight playoff series to take the championship.
