Maybe we should have seen it coming when Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles tendon that ended his season four agonizing plays into the season. The highly touted future Hall of Fame quarterback, projected to be the savior of the New York Jets and a fringe QB1 in fantasy football, ended up not scoring a single fantasy point for the season, and his injury became in a painful foreshadowing of a theme that will last the entire season. for fantasy football coaches, especially in the AFC.
Rodgers’ plight was the first of a myriad of serious injuries to notable and previously durable quarterbacks (more than a few who were expected to contribute for fantasy managers in standard leagues) and wreaked modest havoc for those that they were not prepared. On the other hand, who could adequately prepare for such an avalanche of lost games? Many of us subscribed to the popular theory that even including a backup quarterback in a 10- or 12-team league was unnecessary until the bye weeks.
Then came the 2023 season, and one excellent, reliable quarterback after another prematurely left the fantasy world.
Looking back on what we learned from another remarkably unpredictable fantasy football season, one in which journeyman Joshua Dobbs surpassed 200 fantasy points between two teamsand the seemingly retired Joe Flacco surpassed 100 points in just five games, surpassing players like Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones and (of course) Rodgers, we must look ahead and wonder if draft day and/or the Team building strategy changes for future seasons based on the historical results of this just completed season.
Sure, football players get hurt. It’s part of the violent game. Still, how could fantasy managers best prepare for this future? Or should they just consider last season as aberrant?
Rodgers missed one start in his final five seasons with the Green Bay Packers. Regardless of age, a certain level of durability was expected, and it was no different for Justin Herbert (finger), Joe Burrow (wrist) and Kirk Cousins (Achilles tendon). This trio had missed three games combined in the last two seasons. Cousins had missed two outings in eight years! Then came 2023, and this quartet combined to play 32 games.
To be clear, the strategy for avoiding quarterbacks in the early rounds of standard fantasy drafts (a QB) has more to do with excess supply versus demand, and this remains true. There are more than 10 viable, fantasy-starter-worthy quarterbacks, so load up early with the typical flexibility-eligible options at running back and wide receiver, and then enjoy the quarterback depth later. The depth remains. Even after 2023, trying to guess which quarterbacks will get injured and miss significant time is foolish. These things happen. Wait for the quarterbacks.
However, it seems time to abandon the notion of avoiding quarterback depth for otherwise unremarkable running backs/wide receivers who may never play a key role for fantasy teams. Even then, there are no guarantees. Dak Prescott was a 12th-round pick in the latest ESPN Fantasy preseason mock, as was Tua Tagovailoa. Jared Goff and Jordan Love were 16th round picks. Rodgers’ investor had previously chosen Burrow. Shrugging emoji. Bad luck.
Still, fantasy managers should expect the unexpected, not just on draft day but throughout the hectic season. Leave your drafts with more than one quarterback, because this season showed us the value of having what you once believed was unnecessary depth. It was very necessary last season. Plus, play the waiver wire in September and beyond to get even more quarterback depth whether you need it or not. Many fantasy managers who overlooked Flacco may have lost playoff matchups precisely because of his surprising resurgence.
While many of us are likely to ignore top quarterbacks in the early rounds, like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes, it seems paramount to leave drafts with multiple quarterbacks, just in case. Get several safe, reliable starters, even if they are borderline QB1 options. Take a chance on a newbie, but it has to make sense. He covets the opportunity (see Baker Mayfield with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) along with the perks.
Quarterback is arguably the most important position in sports, and this was a pretty eventful season for the position. Week 18 “rest shenanigans” aside, a few AFC quarterbacks survived four months without serious injuries. Allen and likely league MVP Lamar Jackson thrived, Mahomes and Tagovailoa were a bit disappointing, and rookie CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Denver Broncos whipping boy Russell Wilson played most of the games and were They performed competently.
In the NFC, Prescott, Love and surprising MVP candidate Brock Purdy surprised, and Mayfield exceeded any reasonable expectation, finishing 10th in quarterback scoring. Dobbs played as a fantasy hero for the Arizona Cardinals for a while, then in the first few weeks with the Vikings and then was benched. The Vikings couldn’t figure out what they were doing without Cousins. The Giants were just as clueless without Jones. The Atlanta Falcons acted clueless with two healthy options.
Maybe quarterbacks will have better luck staying healthy in 2024, and fantasy managers will too, but we all need to prepare a little differently going forward.
Here are some other lessons learned from the 2023 season:
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Don’t worry so much about NFL draft position: Stroud worked out very well for Fantasy managers, but fellow rookie Bryce Young did not. Ignore the actual hierarchy of NFL draft results! Yes, Young came in first overall, not Stroud. However, this is irrelevant for our purposes. Young can still become a star. Fantasy managers in draft formats should never rely solely on a rookie, but sometimes they outperform your top-10 option, so be open to the possibilities. Fantasy managers who invest in one wide receiver over another because they came early in the NFL draft likely missed out on Puka Nacua (Pick 177) in favor of Quentin Johnston (21st overall). Nacua outscored him by more than 200 PPR points.
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Ignore ADP after selecting your teams: Even before sitting out Week 18, Mahomes was barely a QB1 option this season, averaging a modest 17.5 points per game. In fact, after a solid first two months, he’s topped 17.5 points in just one of his last nine games. Mayfield, a fantasy draft afterthought (and many others, by the way), outperformed Mahomes over the past two months. Did you continually draft Mahomes, Austin Ekeler, Stefon Diggs and others based on name value or because they were your top draft day picks? You probably had better options.
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Beware of regression: The touchdown regression hit Ekeler hard, as he fell from 38 touchdowns in the previous two seasons to six touchdowns in 2023. Jamaal Williams scored 17 touchdowns for the 2022 Lions. His only touchdown with his new team, the New Orleans Saints, It came about controversially in the last minute of the season. Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders went from 11 touchdowns with the Eagles to one for his new franchise. Okay, so Raheem Mostert scored 21 touchdowns this season. Will he receive a third of that total in 2024 for the overreaching managers who make him his first RB?
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Be aggressive with wire transfer or FAAB spending: Those who preferred to save the waiver position or free agent dollars for later in the season may have missed out on Nacua, who broke the rookie record for receptions and receiving yards, as well as his teammate, RB Kyren Williams , who established himself as a top-three option at the position, even though he was an afterthought in the preseason. Dolphins rookie back De’Von Achane did little over the first two weeks. He did a lot in Week 3 (51.3 PPR points) and beyond.
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Don’t avoid rookie and second-year TEs on principle: Lions rookie Sam LaPorta finished with the most PPR points among all tight ends, and he wasn’t alone among the younger, more productive options at the position. Fantasy managers tend to overlook rookie and second-year tight ends, but this practice must end if players get opportunities. Kyle Pitts surpassed 1,000 yards in 2021, but has struggled since then, seemingly driving home the point. However, LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson shined this season.
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Wide receivers should dominate the first round of 2024 fantasy drafts: Ultimately, while Christian McCaffrey averaged the most PPR points per game of any player, and may be the right pick for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 PPR drafts, the first round should be heavy on wide receivers. . Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown deserve top-five love overall, perhaps above any other running back (like Breece Hall and the aforementioned Williams) and certainly for on top of the quarterbacks. and tight ends (including Travis Kelce). McCaffrey and a host of wide receivers will be a first-round item this fall.
