Sunday's Wimbledon final will be an epic rematch of last year, with Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic battling it out for the title. Can reigning champion Alcaraz win again? Or will Djokovic win a record 25th Grand Slam title? We asked our experts:
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Alcaraz beats Medvedev to advance to Wimbledon final
Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz shows his emotions after defeating Daniil Medvedev in four sets to advance to the 2024 Wimbledon final.
What can Alcaraz do to beat Djokovic?
D'Arcy Maine: Can we first take a second to acknowledge that we're getting this rematch on Sunday? This has the potential to be a classic regardless of who wins, and there's a lot at stake for both. Get your popcorn (or strawberries and cream) ready.
Alcaraz already has a game plan for how he can beat Djokovic in the Wimbledon final and will have to find a way to replicate it as closely as possible. “I know what I have to do,” he said Friday of the possibility of facing Djokovic again. Alcaraz would like to get off to a better start this time around, but that has been something that has plagued him throughout this tournament. He has lost the first set in three matches at Wimbledon. It would certainly help if he could show the level of intensity he has become known for early on, but as he has shown, it is not a necessity.
In the 2023 final, Alcaraz took control of the match once he started using his variety and drop shot, and that will be crucial again on Sunday. He has youth, speed and health on his side, and that could also be the difference in the endgame.
Bill Connelly: Suffer. We know Alcaraz can do it, but we don’t yet know if Djokovic can. He’s played just 17 sets in six rounds thanks to an easy quarter-final win and a draw that has pitted him against only one top-20 opponent. This might be the most favourable draw I’ve ever seen at a Grand Slam. While it’s still incredible that he’s done what he’s done so quickly after fairly serious knee surgery, we’ve somehow reached this point without knowing exactly where Djokovic stands in terms of his typically superhuman fitness levels.
Alcaraz is one of only 11 players, active or retired, who know what it's like to beat Djokovic in a five-set match, and he's likely to have a much bigger physical advantage than usual. The effort and suffering, making this match as physical as possible, could yield better results than he usually does against Djokovic.
Sam Borden: Move it around and keep it on the court. As strong as Djokovic’s knee has looked (and it’s ridiculous what he’s done so soon after surgery), there are still moments in every match when he hesitates or double-clutches on a hairpin slide or spin. Is it possible he’s 100 percent? I guess so. But I’m not convinced there isn’t still a small question mark in Djokovic’s mind about what his knee can handle, and Alcaraz (a player who seems to get stronger as the match progresses) can test him, again and again, with drop shots and sideways groundstrokes better than anyone. If this goes down to the wire, I like Alcaraz to pull it off.
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Djokovic wins in straight sets and reaches his tenth Wimbledon final
Novak Djokovic fends off Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets and will face Carlos Alcaraz in a repeat of last year's Wimbledon final.
What can Djokovic do to beat Alcaraz?
Maine: Rely on your experience and mental strength. I can’t help but remember the 2023 Cincinnati Open final between these two. Sure, it was a best-of-three, on a different surface and not only had Djokovic undergone knee surgery, but because of the heat, he was visibly struggling for much of the match and was down a set and a break. But as soon as Alcaraz allowed the slightest opening, Djokovic started to find his way back. He took control of the rallies, was aggressive and ultimately cruised to the marathon victory.
That was just six weeks after the Wimbledon final, and Djokovic was probably thinking about revenge to some extent. One would imagine he will be motivated by that even more this time when the stakes are higher. He is not the favorite heading into the final, but he seems to thrive on disrespect and being the underdog, no matter how slight.
Connelly: Basically, hard serves. Sometimes the statistics offer something pretty clear. Djokovic and Alcaraz have met five times; when Djokovic wins at least 67% of his first-serve points, he wins. When he doesn't, he loses. In last year's Wimbledon final, he was at 62%, just as Medvedev was at just 62% against Alcaraz in Friday's semifinal.
Alcaraz's serve has been rather inconsistent this tournament, and it's fair to assume he'll need a good dose of success on the return game. If Djokovic controls the situation with the first serve, he'll probably win.
Edge: Jannik Sinner (and others) have had some success against Alcaraz (and the word “some” means “doing a lot of work”) by trying to attack his forehand. It’s a formula that could backfire very badly if Alcaraz is in form, but as Bill pointed out, Alcaraz’s serve can be patchy, so there is a scenario where he gets frustrated that he’s not serving well and can be a bit more vulnerable, mentally, if his forehands are a bit scattered as well.
Djokovic is a master strategist, so he will know of instances where Sinner has had success with this plan, and he certainly has the skills to carry it out himself.
Who will win?
Maine: Thinking about this logically, it seems like Alcaraz should win. He knows exactly what it takes to beat Djokovic at the All England Club, he's been in great form throughout the tournament and is fresh off winning the title at Roland Garros, and Djokovic is only five weeks removed from knee surgery. Yet despite the struggles of his season and his health, this remains a challenge. Novak Djokovic, Arguably the best player in the history of the sport, I can't imagine him passing up this opportunity, especially after last year's bitter disappointment. Don't ask me to explain further, I'm just going to go with Djokovic in five sets.
Connelly: Even with the easy draw, I have a hard time understanding how Djokovic has gotten to this point. He had a painfully mediocre season, tore his meniscus, had part of it removed… and came out better a couple of weeks later. What? So betting against him seems silly, but I'll do it. Alcaraz won the last Grand Slam, beat Djokovic on this very court, with both at 100% health, a year ago, and he'll do it again. Let's just say it'll be in four sets this time.
Edge: The moment has arrived, number 25 awaits and Djokovic is ready to play one last violin symphony for his daughter on Centre Court. Before the tournament, I thought it was more likely that he would skip this tournament to be ready for the Olympics (a gold medal is perhaps the only honour in this sport that he has not won), but, clearly, I was wrong. Djokovic takes revenge in four.
