The US Open starts on Monday and defending champions Coco Gauff and Novak Djokovic are in the draw. But are either of them the favourites, with Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and so many others in contention? We asked our experts:
Who will win the women's singles title and why?
Bill Connelly: This is an odd draw. Many of the top players are going through tough times or recovering from injuries. Admittedly, “not winning three tournaments in a row (and still winning 10 matches in them)” is what constitutes a tough time for Swiatek, but her crushing loss to Sabalenka in the Cincinnati semifinals made me think that perhaps Sabalenka is the player to beat.
Sabalenka swept through four top-30 opponents without dropping a set and not only beat Swiatek 6-3, 6-3, she dominated. She created 15 break points to Swiatek's six, broke serve in five of Swiatek's nine service games and, while her serve wasn't 100%, it was more than enough.
The Sabalenka draw is not exactly an easy task, but if Madison Keys (her potential fourth-round opponent) is not 100%, she may not have a strong test until the quarterfinals. A favorable draw for a three-time semifinalist (and one-time finalist) who is also the most in-form player in the elite? That seems like a good combination.
Tom Hamilton: Sabalenka, who is in great form after her recent run of physical setbacks. She lost in the Roland Garros quarter-finals to Mirra Andreeva through illness, was then forced to withdraw from Wimbledon with a shoulder injury sustained in Berlin and then pulled out of the Paris Olympics because she did not want to return to clay. So Sabalenka is firing on all cylinders on the hard court and, having won the Australian Open earlier this year on the same surface, will be looking to conquer New York.
D'Arcy Maine: Okay, sure, I agree that Sabalenka is absolutely the favourite right now – and for good reason – but I’m going to stick with Swiatek. Clearly disappointed by her bronze medal in Paris and likely motivated by that and her semi-final loss to Sabalenka in Cincinnati, it’s hard to think she’s not on a mission to avenge the past few months and could win a sixth major title in the process. Her path to the final certainly has its challenges, with Andreeva potentially waiting in the fourth round, Pegula or Danielle Collins as likely quarter-final opponents and Elena Rybakina or her well-known nemesis Jelena Ostapenko (who has won all four of their previous matches) in the semis, but it certainly seems doable for Swiatek. Not to mention, when Swiatek is focused and fully concentrated, well, watch out for the others. She’s almost impossible to beat and, having won the title in 2022, she knows exactly what it takes to hoist the trophy.
Who will win the men's singles title and why?
Connelly: I think Djokovic will do it again. He is on the opposite side of the draw to Sinner, Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev: It's almost as good a draw as the one he had at Wimbledon, when he reached the final with a knee. He's had more recovery time, and after winning the Olympic gold medal (over Alcaraz, no less, just weeks after Alcaraz beat him in the Wimbledon final), Djokovic is likely to play freely and with confidence.
This is the easiest path Djokovic could have asked for, and with Sinner looking less than 100% and Alcaraz short-circuiting his only hard-court tune-up, Djokovic might as well be the most in-form player of the bunch. And now comes 25th Grand Slam title?
Hamilton: Djokovic is in a brilliant position to win his 25th Grand Slam. The draw has started wonderfully for him and, having become only the fifth singles player to claim the Golden Slam by winning the men's singles tournament in Paris, this is expected to come at the perfect time for a revitalised Djokovic. He has achieved one of the most important goals of his career and now faces the mission of extending his tally of Slams in the men's singles tournament. Alcaraz has looked a little subdued of late (and uncharacteristically nervous in Cincinnati), while Sinner has had his share of off-court distractions.
Djokovic has won here four times before, and is expected to lift the US Open trophy again on September 8.
Maine: This question is much harder for me to answer today than it was a few days ago. Watching Sinner’s run in Cincinnati — in which he defeated Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe in three consecutive days to take the title — I felt confident that the U.S. Open was his. But now that he finds himself facing scrutiny and questions (and maybe even some boos and jeers from the New York crowd) because of the revelation that he had tested positive twice in March for a banned substance, I’m just not sure where he’s going mentally.
If he can stay focused and play at the same level as he did in Cincinnati, he can certainly win it all, but there are too many things that don't convince me at the moment. Instead, I'm going with Alcaraz, who might be playing with a bit of resentment after the Olympics and his (short) start to the hard-court season. He thrives on the energy of New York and has shown how good he is in best-of-five environments and when major titles are at stake.
