BERLIN — After a long month of continental competition that stretched from one end of Germany to the other, Euro 2024 will conclude on Sunday in Berlin, where Spain will face England at the Olympiastadion.
The paths these two teams have taken to the German capital are very different. Spain have been the tournament favourites, the only heavyweights to consistently deliver eye-catching performances that exude coherence and a clearly defined identity. England, meanwhile, have largely seemed less than the sum of their parts, but their collection of stars have managed to pull out all the stops and get the results needed to reach a second successive Euro final.
Who will emerge victorious on Sunday? How will the match unfold? ESPN asked the two writers who have followed these teams most closely during Euro 2024: James Olley and Sam Marsden.
Why could England win?
England produced by far their best performance of the tournament in the semi-finals. There is a huge sense of momentum and growing self-belief at the moment that comes from having produced some good results in the final minutes. Jude Bellingham's 95th-minute equaliser against Slovakia, the penalty shoot-out victory against Switzerland and Ollie Watkins' 90th-minute winner against the Netherlands have created the feeling that England might somehow be destined to lift their first major trophy in 58 years.
In the game against the Dutch, there were signs that England’s individual attacking talents were starting to come together and some of the combinations between Kobbie Mainoo, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka in particular were exciting. Jordan Pickford is having another tournament in which he takes his game to another level, while Marc Guéhi has been a great find in the centre of defence. The likely return of Luke Shaw in time for his first start of the tournament will give the team better balance, given that he is a natural left-footer compared to Kieran Trippier, who has been filling in at left-back or left-wing-back. After all the chaos of the early rounds, manager Gareth Southgate has seemingly found a degree of stability in his likely line-up. –James Olley
Why was Spain able to win?
No one is arguing that Spain have been the best team at Euro 2024. They have won all six games and have already beaten hosts Germany and favourites France in the knockout rounds. They have done so by scoring the most goals (13), creating the most chances (96) and playing attacking, attacking football. Much of the attention has been focused on the verticality that wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have added to a team that was previously very possession-driven. Thanks to them, they can now play direct and cause problems in transition, although they also continue to handle the ball very well. They press diligently, have good balance at full-back, a clear idea of how they want to play and in Rodri they could have the Player of the Tournament.
The Manchester City midfielder is edging closer to winning the Ballon d'Or and, if he is fit, Spain are very likely to win. City's defeat in the FA Cup final ended a 74-match unbeaten run for club, but Rodri is back to winning ways with his country.
Before the tournament, Spain were considered unknowns, but the optimism they radiated since their debut with a 3-0 victory against Croatia has been justified. They go into the final as favourites. –Sam Marsden
Who deserves the trophy more: Southgate or De la Fuente?
Southgate for several reasons. Firstly, Sunday could be the culmination of eight years in charge during which he has redefined the culture around the England team and broken down a number of historic barriers. He has now won more tournament knockout games than all other England managers since 1966 combined. He has made it to two successive European Championship finals, and this weekend's is England's first major final outside London.
It is possible to find fault with those achievements, particularly this summer, when England have had a much easier route to the final than Spain and the football was truly awful at the start of the tournament. A more proactive manager might have secured victory in the last Euro final against Italy, as Roberto Mancini gradually took the game away from England before winning on penalties.
Southgate has his faults, but he has presided over an unprecedented period of major tournament appearances, and has done so most recently amid a fierce backlash from many people with short memories. Some of the criticism has been valid, but throwing glasses of beer at him and booing his name when it is read out before kick-off is not in keeping with his track record and his sincere desire to make his nation proud. And let us not forget his record as a player: missing a penalty in the Euro 1996 semi-final shoot-out against Germany is a moment that has long threatened to define him. What a transformation it would be if he could mark eight years and 102 games as a manager with a historic trophy. –Oley
The word “deserves” is a bit of an odd one. Neither appointment was particularly exciting at the time, but both have done a good job. It’s easy to argue that Southgate would be a fitting winner given his track record with England as a player and manager and what he has done over the past eight years, including withstanding extreme criticism at times during this tournament. However, if we’re only talking about what we’ve seen in Germany, then Luis de la Fuente takes the cake.
Spain’s performance has been recognisable and consistent throughout. They have taken the game to their opponents and not backed down once while winning. It is an extension of the work De la Fuente has done over the past decade at the Spanish Football Federation. He has previously won the Under-19 European Championship, the Under-21 European Championship, a silver medal at the Olympics and the UEFA Nations League last summer. Many of the players in the now senior squad played under him at youth level – including Rodri, Dani Olmo, Marc Cucurella and Pedri, among others – and those long-standing relationships, coupled with their tournament experience, have helped Spain thrive in Germany. –Marsden
1:06
Leboeuf praises England's “well-deserved” victory
Frank Leboeuf says England did their job in what he calls the Three Lions' best game so far.
What weaknesses could each team exploit in their opponent?
Spain could be the first team England face who are willing to allow them space on their counterattacks. If England can play through the press when they win the ball, they could create opportunities, although they will have to be more willing to run in behind goal than they have been so far – Spain play with the highest defensive line in the tournament. Goalkeeper Unai Simon has also had a couple of uncertain moments. His error led to a Croatia penalty on the opening goal (which was not seen) and he almost gifted Germany a goal last week, although Kai Havertz could only lift the ball into the roof of the net.
Spain will focus more on their strengths than England's weaknesses. They will look to Rodri and Fabian Ruiz to lead the way and for Williams and Yamal to win their battles against the English full-backs. –Marsden
England's inability to maintain possession has been a regular flaw in the tournament. Although Spain are more direct under De la Fuente, they are still excellent in that department (with Rodri the absolute master of dictating play), so the midfield battle will be vital.
If England do manage to get a foothold in the game, their wealth of attacking talent could exploit a vulnerable-looking Spanish defence, especially at centre-back. It would be a huge surprise if Harry Kane did not start the game (unless the knock to his right foot he sustained against Holland is more serious than initially feared), but England's firepower off the bench could also be telling. Both Watkins and Ivan Toney have contributed at key moments in this tournament so far, the former spectacularly scoring the 90th-minute winner against Holland, capitalising on a tiring defence. Their confidence will be sky-high. –Oley
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McManaman: Spain deserve to be favourites for Euro 2024 final
Craig Burley and Steve McManaman react to Spain's 2-1 win over France in the Euro 2024 semi-finals.
England player to watch
The bukayo saka. The Arsenal winger’s consistency and application are so unwavering that it’s easy to take him for granted. Saka was a menace against Switzerland – he scored a brilliant equaliser in that quarter-final – and in particular in the first half against the Netherlands. But his tactical intelligence is also particularly important for England when adopting a hybrid system. England used a five-man defence when not in possession, with Saka tucked away at right-back, but then switched to a four-man defence on the ball as the 22-year-old moved forward to operate as a more conventional winger. His one-on-one ability is unmatched by many in the game, and he will fancy the match-up against Cucurella. –Oley
Spanish player to watch
Dani Olmo. Obviously, Rodri, Yamal and, to a lesser extent, Williams are the key men for Spain, but England will also need to keep an eye on Olmo. The RB Leipzig striker started the tournament on the bench, but Pedri's injury gave him his chance against Germany, when he scored a goal and provided an assist on the winner. He then came into the team against France, where he scored the winner. Before that, he was already making an impact as a substitute. He has five goal contributions (three goals and two assists), the most in the tournament, and is free to move between the lines ahead of Rodri and Ruiz. –Marsden
Score prediction
Spain 2-1 England. Spain's form suggests they deserve to go into this game as favourites. England are still finding ways to win (and could do so again), but this will be by far the toughest challenge they have faced at this Euros, and Spain have been consistently superior throughout the tournament. –Oley
Spain 3-1 England. Both teams have reacted to being behind in the knockout stages (Spain against Georgia and France, and England in all three games) so the first goal does not look like a knockout blow on this occasion. The game will be tight, but Spain have been the better team throughout and there is no reason to think that will change dramatically on Sunday. The third goal will come on the counterattack as England look for a late equaliser. –Marsden
