Liverpool's Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk, and Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne are three of the biggest stars of the Premier League era. Each of them has helped their team win the club's highest honors and will surely be future members of the Premier League Hall of Fame. However, they are all in their thirties and entering the last six months of their contracts.
Salah (32) and Van Dijk (33) are yet to sign new deals at Anfield, and De Bruyne (33) is still waiting to hear if he has a future at the Etihad beyond next summer's FIFA Club World Cup. Son Heung-Min (32) is also entering the final six months of his Tottenham Hotspur contract, and there are plenty of other 30-year-olds heading into 2025 with uncertainty over whether they will be retained or released by their Premier League side. club at the end of the season.
But while Harry Maguire (31) and Christian Eriksen (32) are unlikely to be offered new deals at Manchester United, and with Jorginho (32) and Thomas Partey (31) in a similar situation at Arsenal, Liverpool and City have great advantages. and complex decisions to make about Salah, Van Dijk and De Bruyne.
Salah and Van Dijk have been crucial figures for Arne Slot's Liverpool this season, helping the team to the top of the Premier League and Champions League, while De Bruyne was named in the Men's World XI this week. FIFPRO by 2024. The key factor in deciding the future of all the players mentioned above is not how they are performing now, but what they will contribute in 18 months or two years. Will they remain a high-performing asset or an aging, expensive liability?
“There are so many factors at play when you have to decide whether a 30-year-old player deserves a new contract,” a former Premier League sporting director told ESPN. “How much depth do you have in that area of the team? Can you find a younger, equally reliable replacement on the market? Should you release a high-performing player now and take a hit for a year while allowing a younger player to develop? nod?” Come in and become the long-term replacement? Can the player justify a big salary in 2 or 3 years?
“You also have to take into account the physical condition of the player without a contract. How many games has he missed, what injuries has he suffered, does he train regularly? One thing is certain: at each club, data analysts will know exactly what the player's career is. player is in terms of performance data and that applies to both training and matches. People outside the club will not see this detail, but if a player no longer trains every day or has been dealing with injuries, everything will be there. there. in the data. his “The trajectory is already on a downward curve, the writing is on the wall, no matter who they are.”
For Salah, Van Dijk and De Bruyne, the issues at stake in each contract are different.
Salah will turn 33 next June and is in top form for Liverpool. He is one of the Premier League's top scorers with 13 goals and only Bukayo Saka (10) has recorded more assists this season than Salah's eight. He has missed just 23 games through injury since joining Liverpool in July 2017, although 12 of those came last season due to two separate muscle injuries, which may be an issue that adds caution to Liverpool's approach. Were those injuries the first sign of a downward trajectory? His form this season would suggest not, but only the data will show that for sure.
Meanwhile, Van Dijk is a year older than Salah and has missed 77 games through injury since joining Liverpool from Southampton in January 2018. However, since recovering from the cruciate ligament injury that forced him to miss Virtually the entire 2020-21 season, the Dutch defender has only missed nine games due to injury in three and a half seasons, so his form is impressive.
De Bruyne, who signed for City in 2015, has missed 51 games for club and country (Belgium) since the start of the 2023-24 season, however, with 170 days missed due to hamstring problems according to Transfermarkt. His recent fitness history will be a major concern for those charged with considering his future at City, and with his 34th birthday approaching next June, it seems unlikely at this point that he will be offered anything more than a one-year extension on terms. reduced.
It is also very important to determine the right timing as to when a club releases a player. Manchester United released Raphaël Varane, then 31, at the end of last season as the former Real Madrid defender missed 61 games through injury since joining the club in 2021. Concerns over Varane's fitness They were confirmed by the suffering of the French World Cup winner. a career-ending knee injury in his first appearance for new club Como.
City released Ilkay Gündogan, then 32, after the midfielder captained the team to treble glory in 2022-23. The former Germany international returned to the Etihad this summer after a year at Barcelona, but City's initial decision to release him in 2023 appears much more astute than that of re-signing him. Gündogan, now 34, looks a shadow of his former self with Pep Guardiola's side this season.
0:59
Marcotti: Liverpool are confident that Mohamed Salah will stay
Gab Marcotti believes Liverpool are increasingly confident that Mohamed Salah will sign a new contract with the club.
But not all 30-year-old players experience the beginning of their decline. Cristiano Ronaldo (39) and Lionel Messi (37) are the definitive proof of this, while Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ryan Giggs played at the highest level until they were 40 years old. Barcelona forward Robert Lewandowski, 36, scores at a rate of 0.78 goals per game and has played 93.7% of his team's minutes after turning 33, compared to 0.79 and 93, 6% of all previous years.
By contrast, Wayne Rooney and Fernando Torres saw their careers decline sharply after turning 30, while Liverpool have not lived to regret transferring 30-year-old Sadio Mané to Bayern Munich in 2022 or leaving free Roberto Firmino, 32, at the end. from last season.
The data will tell the clubs their final decision, but there may be compromises that suit both parties.
“These problems can be resolved with pragmatism on both sides,” said the former sports director. “A player and his agent will know that they will not receive Premier League salaries in Spain, Italy or Germany, so the only lucrative options are Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, Turkey.
“Some players might decide to take a big pay cut and a shorter contract to maintain their current lifestyle and keep their family settled rather than looking for a final payday. And if a club decides it can't replace a player 32 or 33 years old, “With a signing already made, they could also look for a middle ground with the player. “The last thing a club wants is to keep an injured 35-year-old player on a huge salary.”
That's the problem every major club with an aging star faces. They must trust that they will continue to deliver or ruthlessly decide that the time has come to move on.
