The College Football Playoff National Championship game features two of the best teams in the country as JJ McCarthy and the Michigan Wolverines take on Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies at NRG Stadium in Houston. Who will win their first CFP title on Monday? What are the best prop bets to consider?
Dalen Cuff, Kevin Pulsifer and Tyler Fulghum offer opinions and betting tips for the championship game.
No. 1 Michigan opened as a 5-point favorite over No. 2 Washington at Houston on ESPN BET. What do you think about the current line of this game and who do you like in this matchup?
Bracelet: I loved Washington in the semifinal with the points, and now I’m still with the Huskies but not with as much confidence. The public is all over them now, and that always worries me. I think UW’s offensive line (who won the Joe Moore Award as the nation’s top OL) can protect Michael Penix Jr., who is the superior quarterback with far superior playmakers. The big question for me is: can the Huskies hold up the defensive line? I think the Wolverines will be able to run the ball, but this game will still be close and I will take the points with the Huskies.
Bracelet: I finally turned the corner on the Huskies last week, just in time for them to pull off another upset. When it happens once, it’s notable. When it happens twice, it’s a trend. Washington is now 5-0 as an underdog the last two seasons, and I expect the Huskies to cover as long as their offensive line can give Penix enough time to find Rome Odunze & Co. downfield.
Fulgo: I think this figure underestimates Washington a bit. Michigan deserves to be the favorite, but perhaps something closer to a field goal is more appropriate. All Washington does is win games and score points. They have an elite quarterback, perhaps the best offensive line in the country and three NFL-caliber wide receivers to throw to. Not only do I like Washington for the points, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he won this game thanks to his superior offensive ability.
Michigan-Washington’s over/under total is currently set at 55.5. With both teams scoring over 35 points per game during the regular season, should bettors expect another high-scoring game in the national championship, or is the under a more intriguing option?
Bracelet: As I mentioned above, I think the Wolverines can run and the Huskies can shoot. The over in the CFP National Championship game is historically 7-2. I think the winner of this game is in the 30s and the loser is very close, within a field goal, so the play is the over.
Bracelet: I’m going to follow Dalen’s lead here with the over, although I think this total depends on the first few drives. If Penix can capitalize with one or two big plays early, it will speed up Michigan and the entire game will speed up. Washington needs to tee off or the final score will end up in the low 20s.
Fulgo: I prefer the bottom here. Michigan’s dominant defense and ability to run the ball will likely create a much less fertile playing environment than what Washington is accustomed to playing in. Again, I firmly believe the Huskies can score at Michigan, but not as prolifically as other opponents. . I feel like this game could have a final score along the lines of 27-24.
What’s your favorite bet for Monday night’s game?
Bracelet: Ja’Lynn Polk 51.5+ receiving yards. Clearly, I’m in favor of the Huskies being able to throw the ball, but Michigan is extremely well-coached and will focus on getting away from Rome Odunze, so I think the other receivers, particularly Polk, can have a day. He’s had 52 yards or more in all but one game this year, and I think that trend will continue with defensive attention focused elsewhere.
Bracelet: JJ McCarthy 196.5+ passing yards (-118). I know he was below this line in four straight games before the Alabama matchup, but he was dealing with an injury and facing elite Big Ten defenses in wrestling matters. I think Jim Harbaugh knows he can’t stay away for 60 minutes, and 12 of 14 Washington opponents threw for more than 196 passing yards.
Fulgo: Michael Penix Jr. under 39.5 pass attempts (-122). Penix has only eclipsed this number four times this season in 13 games. His highest mark is 42 attempts. Add to that the fact that Michigan runs a type of ball control offense that can limit the Huskies’ time of possession, and this becomes an even stronger bet.
