When will Manchester City regret allowing Cole Palmer to join Chelsea: now, in the future or never?
It is 192 days since City appeared to have unearthed a gem from their academy, when Palmer came off the bench to score the equalizer against Arsenal in August's Community Shield at Wembley. City lost that match (on penalties) and Palmer himself when Chelsea took advantage of a disagreement between the teenager and manager Pep Guardiola over his immediate professional career to complete a deal that could be worth up to £42.5m.
The story is simple: Palmer wanted to go on loan and play. Guardiola told Palmer that he had to stay or find a new club; Fearing a season on the bench, Palmer opted to leave. Suddenly, a player born in Wythenshawe, south of Manchester, who once had no particular desire to stray too far from home, found himself in London, far from his family and friends, having swapped the treble for a Chelsea team in state of flux with a new manager and more than £1 billion spent on players in the previous three windows.
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Palmer returns to the Etihad for the first time this weekend, having exceeded all expectations in the intervening six months. Guardiola's team has pressed on without him to maneuver into a position where successfully defending the treble is becoming a tangible possibility. But Palmer has the opportunity on Saturday to derail that bet and make it clear to Guardiola that he always misjudged his talent.
Palmer's move to Chelsea was a real sliding doors moment for everyone involved.
As part of the Blues' aggressive push to acquire most of Europe's best young talent, they pursued a deal for Crystal Palace winger Michael Olise. It seemed simple: Olise had a £35m release clause, which Chelsea activated around August 15, and with personal terms not expected to be an issue, there was widespread confidence that the transfer would be completed. However, Palace moved quickly to insist that a new contract with Olise was already in place which removed the £35m release clause. The new terms have never been confirmed, but sources suggest they were replaced by a new clause worth between £50m and £60m, which would be activated in a future transfer window.
Palace president Steve Parish posted a photo on social media of Olise signing his new four-year contract and suddenly Chelsea were left looking for alternatives.
Palmer had been on the Blues' radar after playing a key role in England's European Under-21 Championship triumph earlier that summer, and looked set for a bright future at the Etihad Stadium. But on August 17, Guardiola publicly admitted that the youngster could leave.
Palmer made just seven starts in City's 2022-23 campaign and after his eye-catching cameo against Arsenal at Wembley, he capped another fine performance with the equalizing goal against Sevilla in the UEFA Super Cup final they would win in the penalties.
“The opinion I had was that he wanted to leave, but now I don't know what's going to happen,” the City manager said after that game. “I don't think a loan is going to be given. It will stay or go, but I don't think a loan is going to be given.”
It has since emerged that a loan was Palmer's preference. Reflecting on the move to Chelsea during a January interview with Sky Sports, Palmer said: “It was never my thing to leave City. That was not my intention.” [to leave]. He wanted to go on loan for a year, come back and be ready for the first team but he [Guardiola] I said I can't go on loan. “Either you stay or they sell you.”
Guardiola's version of that conversation added the caveat that, with Riyad Mahrez's departure to Saudi Arabia, Palmer was explicitly told he would get more playing time. Palmer has a genuine affection for City (he once played two games in the same day for them, first for the under-23s and then for the senior team), but he was not convinced there were enough opportunities ahead.
City did not plan his exit last summer, but Chelsea's offer was notable: £40m up front for a player with huge potential, but very little evidence, with just 41 senior appearances, that he would succeed at the highest level. The structure of the deal and Palmer's status as a homegrown talent meant the fee could be deposited as pure profit and help City's Financial Fair Play compliance. In anticipation of the move, City agreed a £55.5m deal to sign Belgian winger Jérémy Doku to ensure they did not fall short in wide areas.
And so Palmer joined Chelsea on deadline day, September 1, becoming the club's 13th signing of the summer, agreeing a seven-year deal with an option for an eighth season. Suddenly, he found himself living away from his parents in a new city, in a new club with a new coach trying to establish himself in a team built at an unprecedented cost.
“I just wanted to get on the team, play and show what I could do,” Palmer said last month. “But to enter the [Chelsea] team immediately and started working, I was surprised.
He's not the only one. A natural left-footer with the ability to play out wide or through the middle, Palmer has been a shining light during a difficult season at Stamford Bridge, operating with a freedom and poise unmatched by his team-mates. The 21-year-old has recorded 12 goals and nine assists in all competitions and became the 1,276th player to represent the senior England men's team in November, when he played as a substitute against Malta at Wembley and in North Macedonia .
A closer look at his Premier League numbers further underlines Palmer's influence. He is sixth in the division in combined goals and assists (16), behind Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (22), Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins (21), City's Erling Haaland (21), Tottenham's Son Heung-Min (18) and Bukayo Saka of Arsenal (17).
Palmer's 10 goals have come from just 48 shots, the lowest among the top six by far; Son has scored his 12 goals in 52 shots, but Haaland (16 of 67), Salah (14 of 65), Watkins 11 of 71) and Saka (10 of 68) are far ahead. This is mainly because half of Palmer's league goals come from penalties (only Salah (six) has scored more), but that in itself is a demonstration of the level of responsibility he craved when deciding whether to leave City. . One of those five successful conversions came against City in November, scoring under maximum pressure in injury time at the climax of a gripping Premier League classic to secure a 4-4 draw against his former team.
Only Arsenal's Martin Ødegaard and Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes have attempted more direct passes than Palmer this season (tied on 19 with Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold and West Ham's Lucas Paquetá). And what about that precious playing time he coveted? Palmer has accumulated 1,506 minutes in the League this season. Compared to his former City teammates in wide positions – Jack Grealish (703), Phil Foden (1,863), Bernardo Silva (1,511) and Doku (975) – Mauricio Pochettino clearly trusts Palmer as Guardiola trusts his key wingers.
The big difference, of course, is league position. City have absorbed Palmer's departure to stay on course for back-to-back trebles, while Chelsea languish in 10th place, 20 points behind the leaders, albeit with a chance to win the first major domestic trophy of the season against Liverpool in the EFL Cup final. at the end of this month. City may regret that Palmer has prospered elsewhere, but of course, they have become such a giant under Guardiola that the departures of other seemingly important figures (think João Cancelo, Leroy Sané and Gabriel Jesus, for example) name three) have failed to derail them.
Meanwhile, Palmer and Chelsea would be insulted by any suggestion that he has taken a step down collectively to take a step forward individually. Chelsea still believe that their policy of accumulating young, top-level talent on long-term contracts will leave them in a good position to compete with the best in English football in the years to come. Palmer is emerging as the best example of that process, proof of Pochettino's consistent ability to nurture precocious talent and mitigate criticism that Chelsea's transfer strategy was too scattershot to succeed.
What they need, according to Pochettino, are positive experiences to grow together as a team. Finding a way to stop City's title charge this weekend would be the solution.
