With pitchers and catchers reporting next month, we reach the home stretch of the 2023-24 MLB offseason, and there are still plenty of moves left to make.
Where will the remaining top free agents land? Will we see more successful exchanges? Will the Boston Red Sox do something big before Opening Day?
We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this winter will end.
free agency
Alden González: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Josh Hader will not sign in January
They are the best position player, the best starting pitcher and, by a wide margin, the best reliever left in free agency, all worthy of nine-figure contracts, but all with real obstacles in the way. Bellinger is a 28-year-old former MVP who possesses elite power, speed and defense. But he only slashed .193/.256/.355 from 2021 to 2022, and some of the underlying numbers behind his 2023 season resurgence (exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard hit rate specifically) have alarmed fans. executives. Snell won his second Cy Young Award last year, but he did so by pitching beyond the sixth inning only three times. Hader is arguably the best closer in the game, but his dominance comes at a time when teams are less willing to spend exorbitant sums on a reliever. (The record $102 million contract Edwin Diaz landed with the New York Mets last offseason is seen by many as a potential outlier, given his importance to a team owned by the sport's richest owner.) Things can change in an instant this time of year; all it takes is for one team to step up their efforts for this prediction to be completely wrong. But the money that Bellinger, Snell and Hader are seeking (and, in many ways, deserve) doesn't appear to be there right now.
Jesse Rogers: Scott Boras will fill several spots for a team
Bold will come in the form of Agent Scott Boras. He still has plenty of players left on the board, including Bellinger, Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Rhys Hoskins. His clients tend to congregate in teams (see Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for evidence) and the end of this offseason will be no different. He will manage multiple players for a single team, whether it be the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants or even the Chicago Cubs. The latter team rarely does big business with Boras' clients, so it would be a departure from the norm to sign several of their players. Still, the Cubs' offseason has been so… can we say slow? – since he hired manager Craig Counsell, that something out of the norm would be a welcome relief for fans.
David Schoenfield: Mariners will sign Blake Snell
Okay, we're looking for something bold and outrageous, right? I still believe the Mariners have been putting up a smokescreen all offseason and will still do something big that could, you know, make the team better. Because all president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has done so far is essentially change players and salaries without improving the team (except maybe Mitch Garver as designated hitter). At least he's created a little more flexibility for future rosters with the Robbie Ray for Mitch Haniger/Anthony DeSclafani trade.
And while the Mariners mourn, their payroll is still about $8 million below last year's, and Snell wants to pitch for his hometown team. He raised the 12th man flag at a Seahawks game. He was in the college football national championship game with the University of Washington team. He grew up idolizing Ken Griffey Jr. How can they do that? They will have to increase last year's payroll (God forbid) but they can delay Snell's contract and give him a lower salary for 2024. The rotation would be Snell, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller. with DeSclafani and Bryan Woo in reserve. Here's how you can beat the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros.
Kiley McDaniel: Blake Snell will sign a three-year contract
I could be very bold and try to guess the exact terms, but I'm sure Boras is aiming for a specific target that I'm not aware of; say a record average annual value, through some combination of intricate opt-outs, options, and front/back loading. The suspicion at the start of the offseason is that Snell would get something similar to Carlos Rodón's contract from last winter (six years, $162 million) and after the Philadelphia Phillies (a rumored landing spot for Snell) signed Aaron Nola , a rumor has been building that Snell will be the expensive pitcher who left when the music stopped.
I imagine Snell's team's idea would be to get something like three years, $105 million with an opt-out or two, but guaranteed money if things go south. That would give Snell a top-10 AAV all-time and a chance to hit the market whenever he wants, which is quite a face-saver for a two-time Cy Young winner relative to expectations.
The Giants and Red Sox are the only two teams with any kind of hype around Snell, and both appear to be trying to fill their pitching needs without Snell the same way the New York Yankees filled their outfield needs. so Boras could not take advantage of his need to overpay Bellinger. The Yankees could use another starter, but Snell smells a lot like Rodon in the worst possible ways. You could make up some landing spots, but there isn't a natural one, especially with Dylan Cease and Marcus Stroman available for prices that might be more reasonable. I think Montgomery returns to Texas for nine figures and that makes the Snell puzzle difficult to solve, and that's why I landed here.
Trade winds
Paul Hembekides: Mets will trade Pete Alonso entering his contract year
I know I know. Alonso is as beloved as any Met since David Wright and possesses almost unprecedented power (his 192 home runs in five seasons have him tied for third all-time). But there's a new sheriff in town and his name is David Stearns. In his eight seasons as GM of the Brewers, Milwaukee used seven different first basemen on Opening Day, including Ryan Braun (2018) and Keston Hiura (2021), who converted to the position. In other words, Stearns has never prioritized first base. Unless owner Steve Cohen intervenes, Stearns will be more inclined to trade Alonso than extend him, capitalizing on a market lacking bats like his.
Bradford Doolittle: Dodgers will trade for Dylan Cease
I'm actually not sure how bold this prediction is, since the Dodgers acquire whoever they want. To me, this trade makes the most sense from the White Sox perspective among the teams most rumored to be in contention for Cease. My conception of the deal would center around infielder Michael Busch. He's too good a prospect to call redundant, even on the Dodgers' org chart, but he's also 26 years old and doesn't have a clear path to everyday playing time in Los Angeles. With the White Sox, right now he is your everyday second baseman for a long time. long-term double play partner with Colson Montgomery, or perhaps an eventual replacement for Yoan Moncada at third. It really depends on how (or if) Busch develops defensively, but his bat is good enough to play anywhere. The Dodgers can balance the valuation of Cease's two seasons of team control by adding a quality young starter and a catching or outfield prospect. I simply don't see another club capable of comfortably meeting Chicago's needs.
Red Sox Bonus Prediction
Buster Olney: Red Sox will do something aggressive and expensive
Red Sox president Tom Werner told reporters that his team was ready to go “full speed ahead” the moment they hired Craig Breslow, and although Boston's risky attempt to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto didn't work out , there are plenty of other investment opportunities available, from Snell to Montgomery on a potential trade away. If the Red Sox don't do something big, Werner's words will become the backbone of their 2024 season. If they struggle to compete in a tough American League East Division (as expected), then Breslow's pitching in his new position will be sabotaged; As manager Alex Cora's contract nears expiration, the team will once again give away tickets to college students in September. The Red Sox will make a big move for the same reason they spent huge amounts of money on Rafael Devers: they have no other option.
