The group stage of the 2024 Olympic women's soccer tournament comes to a close on Wednesday, with Canada's women looking to overcome the odds and qualify despite having six points deducted because of a drone spying scandal.
Here's what Canada needs to do to advance to the quarterfinals and why they're in this position.
Why was Canada deducted six points?
Canadian women's soccer coach Bev Priestman has been suspended from coaching duties for a year and the Canadian team has been given a six-point penalty during the Olympics after FIFA investigated allegations that staff members used a drone to spy on an opponent's closed-door practice session.
For the Canadian team, hoping to defend the gold medal it won at the Tokyo Olympics, a six-point penalty appeared to make progress to the knockout rounds much more difficult, while Priestman, who coached as an assistant to Phil Neville with the England women's national team before taking charge of Canada in 2020, is banned from “participating in any football-related activity” for 12 months.
The sanctions, which also included a fine to the Canadian federation of approximately $226,000, were for violating “applicable FIFA regulations in relation to its failure to ensure compliance… with the ban on flying drones over any training site,” FIFA said in its announcement.
Canada appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport but was denied on Wednesday.
What is the situation in the Canada group?
Canada had already beaten New Zealand 2-1 in their first match when the news of the points deduction broke. This dropped Canada from second place in Group A (host country France was first in terms of goals scored) with three points to last place with -3.
One advantage for Canada was that since there are only 12 teams in the women's Olympic competition, only four are eliminated in the group stage and eight advance to the quarterfinals.
It still seemed like a hopeless situation, but two wins would put Canada in some sort of contention; nothing more was enough. Finishing with three points would give them at least a chance to qualify as one of the two best third-place teams. Since Canada would have won all three games, their goal difference was going to be better than any other third-place team with three points.
But then there was a twist.
In the first match on Sunday, Colombia won 2-0 against New Zealand, and that changed the whole dynamic for Canada. They now knew that two wins would be enough. definitely would be enough. But could Canada do it?
Later that day, Canada faced France in Saint-Étienne, but all seemed lost. The match was heading for a 1-1 draw until Vanessa Gilles, who plays for Lyon in France, scored a dramatic goal in the 12th minute of added time at the end of the match. Canada won 2-1 and was back in contention.
What must Canada do to qualify?
Canada must win against Colombia (both games start at 3 p.m. ET), and any kind of victory guarantees a spot in the quarterfinals, regardless of the outcome of the other game between New Zealand and France.
Colombia's win over New Zealand put them top of the group with three points and a +1 goal difference. Canada are third in the group with zero points, but with a +2 goal difference. Canada is guaranteed to finish above Colombia on goal difference if they win.
With New Zealand (zero points) playing France (three points, goal difference 0) in the other match, only one of those two teams can finish above Canada. Even if New Zealand wins, for all four teams to have three points, France and Colombia's goal difference will definitely be worse than Canada's. Therefore, any win will put Canada in the top two.
Had New Zealand beaten Colombia on Sunday, Canada could have fallen out of the top two spots after tying New Zealand against France. It would then have had to look to other groups to qualify as one of the best third-place teams.
So Canada can win the whole group?
Yes, if Canada wins all three games, the loss of six points will give a misleading impression of the group. Those six points are lost in the table when, normally, they would have gone to other teams due to losses.
If Canada and New Zealand win, all four teams will have three points, but Canada would almost certainly win the group as its goal difference is five times better than New Zealand's.
If Canada wins while France wins or ties, France will top the group and Canada will be in second place.
Who will Canada play in the quarterfinals?
If Canada wins the group, it will play for third place in Group B or C.
If they finish runners-up, they will face the second-place team in Group B. That could be the United States, but it is more likely to be Germany or Australia.
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