The U.S. Under-23 team gave itself a chance to reach the quarterfinals of the 2024 Olympic men's soccer tournament with a 4-1 victory over New Zealand on Saturday.
Djordje Mihailovic, Walker Zimmerman, Gianluca Busio and Paxten Aaronson scored to record the biggest Olympic win in U.S. men's history, but the team still has work to do to qualify after losing its opening game 3-0 to host France.
Here's what Group A looks like and what the United States needs from its match against Guinea on Tuesday.
The top two teams from each group advance to the quarter-finals.
USMNT WINS against GUINEA
The task is clear: if USMNT wins by two goals or more, they are guaranteed qualification.
A one-goal win is almost certainly enough, but it won't automatically guarantee qualification: There are a couple of scenarios in which the United States could still be eliminated.
If France wins or draws against New Zealand, France will win the group and the United States will qualify in second place with any victory.
However, if New Zealand win against France, that would leave France, the United States and New Zealand on six points; places will then be decided by goal difference.
If the United States wins by one goal and New Zealand wins by one, two, or four goals or more, the United States moves into second place.
But if the United States wins by one goal and New Zealand by three, all teams have a goal difference of +1. Then, the goals scored in the group are calculated.
If the United States wins 1-0 and New Zealand wins 3-0, the United States finishes second. If the United States wins 1-0 and New Zealand wins 4-1, the records between the United States and France are identical: New Zealand wins the group and France finishes second because it won its group match against the United States. If another result is a three-goal margin (for example, 5-2 over New Zealand), the United States finishes third in goals scored.
If the United States wins 2-1 (or by a one-goal margin, if the score is greater), the New Zealand vs. France scenario increases by one goal. For example, the United States would finish second with a 4-1 New Zealand win, and a 5-2 win would eliminate the United States with the result against France.
The United States can still win the group if France loses and the four-team goal difference is reversed. For example, if the United States wins 3-0 and France loses 1-0, the United States is first and France is second.
USMNT vs GUINEA DRAW
USMNT will finish second if New Zealand draws or loses against France.
If New Zealand beats France, the United States is out.
USMNT LOSES against GUINEA
The USMNT can only qualify if New Zealand loses to France, and then it will be decided by goal difference between the U.S., New Zealand and Guinea.
If the United States loses to Guinea by one goal and New Zealand loses by any score, the United States will finish second.
If the United States loses to Guinea by two or more goals and New Zealand loses by any score, Guinea finishes second and the United States is out.
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