PARIS — The most competitive international men's basketball tournament in history is finally here.
Simply being one of 12 teams to qualify for the 2024 Olympics is a major achievement. There are teams with plenty of talent and world-class players who would like to be in France now, including the Slovenian team led by Luka Doncic that reached the semi-finals in Tokyo three years ago but lost in a pre-Olympic qualifying tournament earlier this month.
Here's what you need to know to prepare for the tournament, which kicks off Saturday with Australia vs. Spain (11 a.m. local time/5 a.m. ET).
The 12 nations competing for gold will be divided into three groups of four teams for the first round. Each team will play the other three in its group. The teams with the two best records in each group will advance to the quarterfinals. Ties will be resolved by head-to-head and then by points difference.
The two best third-place teams from the three groups also advance, and that's where point spread often makes the biggest difference, so winning matters, but winning big matters, too (something NBA fans became familiar with during last season's inaugural tournament).
The eight teams that ultimately advance to the quarterfinals beginning Aug. 6 will likely make for an unpredictable and talent-rich knockout round.
MORE: Everything you need to know about Team USA
The favorite
Team USA is the betting favorite (-400 at ESPN BET). The Americans have won the last four gold medals and seven of the eight since NBA players were allowed to compete in 1992. Team architect Grant Hill has brought to Paris arguably the most complete 12-man roster in the program’s history. Team USA’s gold in Tokyo in 2021, however, was a close race and illustrated how the margin for error has shrunk. Three years ago, the Kevin Durant-led team lost to France in the group stage and managed just a five-point victory in the gold medal game.
In the lead-up to this summer’s Olympics, three of the team’s five exhibition games weren’t decided until the final minute or two, including a one-point win over a South Sudanese team it will face again next week. Head coach Steve Kerr, who was an assistant three years ago in Tokyo, asked the team to raise its intensity level coming into Paris.
“That's what today is all about,” he said Thursday after the team's film session. “It's a reminder. It's time. We're here. So it's got to be 40 minutes of strength, focus and concentration, and we can't let teams outwork and out-energize us.”
Even by Team USA standards, this team has minimal time to gel. Only two players — Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton — played in the World Cup last summer. Only five (Durant, Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo, Devin Booker and Jayson Tatum) played in 2021 in Tokyo, with Durant missing the entire exhibition schedule because of a sore calf. LeBron James hasn’t played for Team USA since the 2012 Olympics in London, and Stephen Curry is playing in his first Olympics (he played in the 2010 and 2014 FIBA World Cups).
The main contenders:
• Canada has 10 current NBA players on its roster and a stacked defensive line, including NBA MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and NBA champion Jamal Murray, plus a host of forwards who, not coincidentally, are ideally suited to beat the Americans. Perhaps just as important, the Canadians have emphasized continuity and have spent more time together than their American counterparts as they try to overcome the talent/chemistry gap that always faces Team USA. Yet they top the “Group of Death” and face a brutal road to the gold medal game.
• Serbia has Nikola Jokic, a three-time NBA MVP who has troubled Team USA at night. It also has NBA-caliber point guards, something many European powerhouses can’t say. Jokic and Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic both have plenty of experience with the national team dating back to Rio 2016, when the Serbians took silver. Plus, and perhaps most importantly, they can get three chances to play Team USA. One in the exhibition season, one in the group stage and possibly one for a medal. The coach is old school master Svetislav Pešić, who surprised many last year by leading the team to a World Cup silver without Jokic.
• Australia won its first medal in Tokyo (a bronze), but this year’s team had slightly lower expectations. However, it was very impressive during the Pre-Olympic Games, which has raised Australia’s chances in France. Josh Giddey has established himself as the centerpiece of the team and is racking up stats by attacking the rim and distributing. Veteran coach Brian Goorjian has expertly prepared the team and veteran guard Patty Mills, playing in her fifth Olympics, remains dangerous as an explosive scorer, scoring 28 points in an exhibition win over Jokic and Serbia earlier this month.
I could steal a medal
• France took silver in Tokyo but has had a disappointing year. Last year, it didn’t make it past the group stage at the World Cup. Then, even when Victor Wembanyama was added to the team for the first time at a major competition, it looked less impressive, losing four times in pre-Olympic games, though all of them were played in France. The front line of Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert, the top two finalists in last season’s NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting, is terrifying for opponents, but the French lack defense and it really shows on this stage. Only three of the team’s guards — Frank Ntilikina, Nando De Colo and Evan Fournier — have NBA experience. They’re playing at home and should be respected, but they’re not as feared as they were four years ago — or if they had secured the services of Joel Embiid, who is playing for Team USA instead.
• Germany is such a well-rounded and experienced team that it's not very pleasant to put them in this category, but it's an indication of the depth of this tournament. The Germans impressed in winning the World Cup last summer. They have that super-valuable combination of a dominant point guard, international star Dennis Schröder, and a gigantic and talented front line featuring NBA players Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner and Daniel Theis. Their veteran coach, Gordy Herbert, has proven brilliant at building and preparing his team.
The biggest pool matches
-
U.S. vs. Serbia, Sunday, 11:15 a.m. ET. A possible preview of the gold medal game, though the Americans dominated an exhibition game earlier this month, winning 105-79.
-
Spain vs. Greece, Tuesday, 5 a.m. ET. Giannis Antetokounmpo cried when Greece qualified this month by beating Croatia. Winning this game would be a big step toward advancing to the medal round, where the Greek team is seeking its first Olympic medal.
-
Canada vs. Australia, Tuesday, 7:30 a.m. ET. An important “Group of Death” matchup that could determine who advances to the medal round. Canada hasn't won a medal since taking silver in the first Olympic basketball tournament in 1936.
-
Canada vs. Spain, Aug. 2, 11:15 a.m. ET. Canada coach Jordi Fernandez, the new coach of the Brooklyn Nets, might need to get a win over his home country to advance.
-
France vs. Germany, Aug. 2, 3 p.m. ET. A classic European battle between teams packed with big men and plenty at stake. It should be noted that no host country has advanced past the group stage since China in 2008.
