The women's soccer tournament at the 2024 Olympics will conclude Saturday in Paris with the final between the United States and Brazil. While the U.S. women's team has dominated the tournament under new coach Emma Hayes (winning all of its matches), Brazil had a shaky group stage before beating defending world champion Spain and host France in the round of 16.
Will the new U.S. women's team win its fifth Olympic gold medal, its first since 2012? Or will Brazilian legend Marta finally win an international trophy for her country? While the U.S. has had success against Brazil of late, anything is possible in competitive soccer.
Ahead of Saturday's finale, ESPN's Sam Borden and Jeff Kassouf break down the matchup, answer the biggest questions and give their predictions.
Why was the USWNT able to win?
Call them what you will (and the nickname that's been bandied about the most lately seems to be “Triple Trouble”), but Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson and Sophia Smith have been the accelerator of this group throughout the tournament. The trio has scored nine of the 11 American goals in five games in France, and they've done so in every way possible: shots from distance, short passes, through balls and breakaways.
There's no doubt that the United States will need a total collective effort to beat a quality team like Brazil, but there's also no denying that any success for the Americans will almost certainly involve one of their top attackers doing something magical. Rodman had his moment in the quarterfinals and Smith had hers in the semifinals. Will it be Swanson's turn in the final? Edge
1:03
Are USWNT's three forwards their advantage over Brazil?
Ali Krieger previews the women's soccer final at the Paris Olympics between the United States and Brazil.
Why could Brazil win?
Brazil is loaded with offensive talent deep enough to bring in 2023 NWSL MVP Kerolin (who miraculously made this team without playing for her club this year after tearing her ACL last fall) off the bench in the semifinal (she scored in second-half stoppage time). They also got here without Marta for the past two-and-a-half games. Marta has literally shed a lot of tears over the past few years while fighting her final battles on the court for this Brazil team, and her return from suspension for what will be her final Olympic game is epic storytelling. Finally sending off the six-time world player of the year with a major title, after so many failures (including gold medal losses to the U.S. women’s national team in 2004 and 2008) is an opportunity that won’t be wasted on this team. Kassouf
Which duel do you think will be decisive in the final?
The U.S. women’s front three will get plenty of well-deserved attention, and there should be plenty of one-on-one matchups as this game unfolds if Brazil sticks with all three backs, but I’ll go with the less obvious answer to start: The midfield will define this game. Brazil will try to overload those central areas with a rotating cast, just as Germany did in the semifinal against the U.S. women’s team, and the American midfield trio of Sam Coffey, Lindsey Horan and Rose Lavelle must find ways to get on the ball more often and distribute it more accurately. Marta has looked much younger than her 38th birthday in a stellar year for club and country, and she’ll be determined to make her mark in a final big game against one of her original nemeses from 20 years ago. Kassouf
–I completely agree with you, Jeff, and I think the only area where the U.S. has had some issues in France is in the midfield. Simply put, Horan and Lavelle have been inconsistent. In terms of matchups, though, I'm looking back a bit further: Naomi Girma has been outstanding throughout the tournament and will have to lead a strong defensive effort again. As you said before, Brazil has real threats on offense (even coming off the bench) and their coach, Arthur Elias, asks his attackers to press high and often. Spain didn't handle that pressure from players like Gabi Portilho and Priscila, and the U.S. will have to do better if they want to win. Edge
USWNT Player to Watch
Trinidad Rodman. It's hard not to point to Girma, who is billed as the best center back in the world, but I think the general public who discovers this match will focus on Rodman. Picking one player out of that attacking trio of Rodman, Smith and Swanson is difficult, but Rodman has a different energy. She continues to prove that she is fitter than almost any other player on any field while roaming that right wing, and she has often been the catalyst for the U.S. women's team's attacks, even beyond her three goals. A collective effort brought the U.S. women's team to this match, but Rodman is the player in form to take charge in this final. Kassouf
Brazilian player to watch
Marten. Look, how do you pick anyone other than Marta? Even the most die-hard U.S. women's national team fan (if they truly love women's soccer) has a small part of themselves that wants Marta to finally get her moment. The Queen of Soccer has an unrivaled resume, and at 38, she's playing in her sixth Summer Games for Brazil, but she's never won a World Cup or an Olympic title. Unsurprisingly, the Brazilian team isn't playing Marta the same way they once did, but after missing the last two-and-a-half games following her straight red card, Marta will be back on stage for one last can't-miss show. Edge
1:51
What legacy will Brazilian Marta leave to football?
Alexis Nunes and Ali Krieger discuss Marta's impact on football at both club and international level.
Score prediction
United States 2-1 Brazil. Neither team was expected to make it to this game, and either winner would be an incredible story. For the U.S., redemption after last year's epic World Cup failure; for Brazil, a poetic send-off for the sport's all-time greatest. Tired legs will bring mistakes for both teams, and I think the American front three are best equipped to punish Brazil in those moments. Kassouf
United States 3-2 Brazil. I agree with you on the possibilities, Jeff: either a spectacular finish for Marta or an incredible start for Hayes. As for the match, I may be hoping blindly, as international finals are rarely played with a very open game, but I think we could see more goals. I've said before that I think Hayes has something special, so I'll stick with that: the U.S. women's team will win in a thrilling match. Edge
