2024 Olympic basketball: What to expect from the women's final between the United States and France

The U.S. women's basketball team continues to do what it does best: win. The Americans are now 40 minutes away from making history.

Team USA scored an 85-64 victory over Australia in the opening semifinals of the Paris Games on Friday, marking the program's 60th consecutive Olympic victory.

The Americans will now play France on Sunday for their eighth consecutive Olympic gold medal and 10th overall. The French team qualified after a close overtime battle against Belgium in the second semifinal. (With the U.S. men’s team also facing the hosts in the final on Saturday, this will be the first Olympics in which the same countries will play in the gold medal game in both men’s and women’s basketball.)

The Opals, who have six active WNBA players on their roster and are led by New York Liberty coach Sandy Brondello, will play Belgium, led by Emma Meesseman and Julie Vanloo, on Sunday in the bronze medal game.

As we head into the final event of the Paris Games, ESPN's Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel break down what went right for Team USA in their semifinal win and what to expect in the upcoming gold medal showdown.

The United States team easily had its best performance so far in the semifinal against Australia.

Despite defeating their opponents by double figures and largely looking like the better team on the field, slow starts and inconsistency in play had been problems for Team USA until this semifinal.

From the start, the U.S. women were aggressive on defense, which fueled their transition game and helped build an early lead. By the end of the first quarter, they had already scored 14 fast-break points and forced six turnovers from the Opals. After a 25-11 second quarter, the U.S. was limiting Australia to just 33% from the field (compared to their own 53%) and the Opals were down 45-27.

The dominance continued through the third and early fourth quarters, where Team USA built a 30-point lead before Australia’s reserves made things a bit tighter at halftime. At the final buzzer, Team USA’s shooting percentage was 50 percent and the Opals’ 36 percent. Australia’s 64 points were the fewest allowed by the U.S. women at these Olympics, and the 21-point win was the Americans’ second-largest — they beat Japan by 26 in Game 1. Also of note: It was Team USA’s second straight win and third overall without falling behind at these Olympics.

If Team USA carries this defensive intensity into the finals and can use it to play in open courts, it should have no problem taking home the gold. — Alexa Philippou

The Americans shared the ball exceptionally well.

What better way to utilize so much talent on a team than by having everyone participate? From a passing standpoint, that's exactly what happened: 11 of the 12 players on Team USA had at least one assist. (Senior guard Diana Taurasi is the only one who didn't.)

“It's like I have SIX ARMS right now.” – Noah Eagle

A'ja Wilson with her FOURTH block of the first half! 🇺🇸😤

📺 NBC and Peacock | #ParisOlympics image.twitter.com/ZTRWfvGvcf

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 9, 2024

Three of the five starters each had five assists: point guard Chelsea Gray, shooting guard Jackie Young and forward Breanna Stewart. In total, the Americans had 31 assists and all but Taurasi scored. There is no defense in the world that can challenge this team when it moves the ball this well. The U.S. team is capable of wearing down and frustrating even the best defenders. –Michael Voepel

Sunday's gold medal match will be a battle of defenses.

France and the United States are two teams that pride themselves on their defense. The former leads all countries with 66.6 points allowed and 12.0 steals per game at these Olympics, while the latter is fourth with 71.2 points allowed per game and eighth with 8.2 steals per game. Which team makes its opponent more uncomfortable? Team USA has plenty of scoring depth and has improved its chemistry in recent weeks, so it seems likely that it can do enough damage offensively to win, especially with Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young looking unstoppable through five games. But maintaining composure, especially when forced to run the offense from half court, will continue to be paramount. — Philippou

France's determination will make it a tough rival in the final

In an Olympic semifinal, 29.9 percent field goal shooting would seem like a recipe for disaster. Even with leading scorers Gabby Williams (9 points in regulation) and Marine Johannes (6 points) struggling, France overcame its offensive woes, as well as a 15-point deficit and a 22-0 run by the Cats on Friday. Les Bleues relied on their defense, forcing 22 turnovers (14 steals) and scoring 30 points off of them. It also helped that they performed well on offensive rebounds (19 offensive rebounds) and recorded 25 more shot attempts than Belgium.

France was down by FIFTEEN points to Belgium at one point in this women's basketball semi-final, and they've come back to take the lead in front of their home crowd! #ParisOlympics

📺. United States and Peacock image.twitter.com/jdIPBBjGAn

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 9, 2024

France should have wrapped up the game in regulation time, but Williams stepped up in extra time and scored nine of her team's 15 points as the hosts cruised to victory in front of a raucous home crowd to cap an all-time semi-final thriller. Valeriane Ayayi and Iliana Rupert's combined 32 points also proved decisive. — Philippou

The Americans just need to stay in the moment to get the gold.

We've seen this spectacle many times, both at the Olympics and at the FIBA ​​World Cup. The American players have never prepared much together as a team, and yet they always have chemistry. Does it help to have four players from a WNBA team on this Olympic team? Of course: Wilson, Young, Gray and Kelsey Plum of the two-time defending champion Aces have all brought that feeling.

The players' commitment to USA Basketball makes the WNBA rivals tight-knit teammates for a couple of weeks right in the middle of the league season. Against France on Sunday, the U.S. will be the “away” team, but you never have to worry about the mental state the Americans are in. There's always positivity and confidence. They're the best team in the Olympic tournament, by far. They just have to play like this for another 40 minutes.

Taurasi, who is seeking her sixth Olympic gold, spoke earlier in the tournament about the possibility of having to face her home country and how the Americans had to be prepared for it. That's not likely to bother them, but the crowd will try to be a factor in the French's favor.

France got to the free throw line many times and took advantage of that, making 28 of 32 free throws against Belgium. The French fans in attendance for the final could have some impact on the officiating, so the Americans should be prepared for that as well. — Voepel