The other half of the NBA conference semifinal round will begin Tuesday night, when the Cleveland Cavaliers will play in Boston against the Eastern Conference's top-seeded Celtics, while the Dallas Mavericks will take to Red River Rivalry on the court when they travel to Oklahoma City. to face the Thunder, the number one seed in the West.
For Cleveland, it marks a return to the conference semifinals for the first time since 2018, and the first time without LeBron James since 1993. Meanwhile, Boston has reached the second round of the playoffs seven times in the last eight years and is looking to return to the conference finals for the sixth time during that span.
Dallas has advanced to the playoffs for the second time in three years after reaching the Western Conference finals two years ago, while Oklahoma City is in the second round for the first time since 2016, when it lost a seven-game conference classic. finals against the 73-win Golden State Warriors.
Here's a look at three key storylines to watch in each series that should play a big role in determining who will emerge victorious:
FURTHER: Everything you need to know about the playoffs |
Offseason guides for each team.
Jarrett Allen's health
The biggest thing to watch heading into this series is whether Cleveland's starting center will be able to play after missing the final three games of the Cavaliers' first-round win over the Orlando Magic with a bruised rib.
Allen is a strong two-way presence in the middle for Cleveland, and with Evan Mobley, they create one of the best defensive units in the league. When sharing the court during the playoffs, the Cavaliers allowed just 0.78 points per drive, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
With Kristaps Porzingis likely to miss the series for Boston due to a calf strain, Cleveland's size can be a real threat in the paint, assuming Allen sees the floor.
There have been some offensive issues with Cleveland playing together against two big men who don't shoot. But the most pressing issue for the Cavaliers is that if Allen is unavailable, that will mean being without Tristan Thompson or Marcus Morris Sr. at center behind Mobley. Against the Celtics' offensive firepower, the Cavs' lack of interior depth could become a serious problem as the series progresses.
Which defense zone can control the development of the game?
While the focus in Boston begins with All-Star scorers Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, it will be the defense of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, one of the league's elite defensive duos, that will help determine whether this series is competitive .
This postseason, the Celtics have a defensive efficiency of 96.6 when White and Holiday are on the court, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
They're also a tremendous matchup against Cleveland's starting defense of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, with Holiday having the strength to take on Mitchell and White having the size and quickness to give Garland problems.
If Cleveland wants to have a chance in this series, it will need Mitchell to be the best player on the floor and Garland to have much more of an impact than he did against Orlando in Game 7, when he scored 12 points on 3-pointers. -13 shots.
But if White and Holiday tie their counterparts or win this matchup outright, this series could be a sweep. The first round showed the Cavaliers' dependence on Mitchell's scoring; That will be no different when facing the league's most potent offense in Boston.
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Can Cleveland keep up with Boston's three-point shooting?
One way a extreme underdog can make a series more competitive is to outshoot his opponent from the 3-point line.
The problem with taking that approach against the Celtics, however, is that they both made and attempted more three-pointers than any other team (by a significant amount) this season, and they finished second in the league in three-point percentage – one-tenth. one point over the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder.
Last summer, Cleveland signed Georges Niang and Max Strus after not getting enough shots in their first-round loss to the New York Knicks. And while Cleveland climbed into the top 10 in hits (seventh) and attempts (eighth) from 3-point range this season, they were last in hits, second-to-last in attempts and second-to-last in 3-point percentage. (28.9%) during his series with the Magic. Meanwhile, no team made more 3-pointers per game in the first round than Boston.
–Tim Bontemps
Luka Doncic vs. Lu Dort
Dallas advanced past the first round despite their MVP candidate suffering a shooting slump and playing most of the series with a sprained right knee. Now, Doncic has to deal with Dort, a brick wall with quick feet and one of the league's premier on-ball defenders. Dort just intimidated New Orleans' Brandon Ingram in the Thunder's first-round sweep, but Doncic is a much tougher challenge as a rare elite offensive creator who can match Dort's brute strength.
Doncic has fared well in the two games he played against the Thunder this season, averaging 34.0 points and 13.5 assists with a true shooting percentage of 71.0. According to NBA Advanced Stats player tracking, Doncic scored 20 points on 8-of-14 shooting when Dort was his primary defender, including 4-of-8 from 3-point range.
However, Doncic's three-point touch abandoned him in the first round, as he only hit 23.9% of his long-range attempts against the LA Clippers. He especially struggled after spraining his knee during the first quarter of Game 3, going 7-for-41 on 3-pointers over the final four games of the series. The stiffness in his knee makes it difficult for Doncic to create the type of separation and elevation he is accustomed to achieving on his jump shot, which is the favored weapon of the NBA's leading scorer. And Doncic anticipates the knee will bother him for the rest of the Mavs' playoff run.
“I don't think things are going to get better before I get some rest,” Doncic said after playing 43 minutes in the Game 6 win. “It's a lot of minutes, so maybe this summer.”
1:19
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Will Josh Giddey make the Mavs pay?
The Mavs basically didn't defend Giddey during Dallas' blowout victory on Feb. 10, the only one of the four meetings between the teams in which Doncic and Kyrie Irving played. The Mavs' centers were Giddey's biggest defenders, sinking away from him to clog driving lanes and basically begging OKC's guard to shoot from the corners.
Giddey finished 3 of 14 from the field (3 of 9 from 3-point range) and the Thunder were outscored by 23 points in his 23 minutes on the court.
“We've seen it all year, so it's nothing new for us,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said after the game about Dallas' defensive strategy. “We want to have a variety of attacks against him, including cutting, including using him as a blocker. Then he'll shoot with confidence when he has open shots. He was effective today for a number of reasons besides just [Giddey]. We have seen it a lot. We've attacked him well in the past. “We have to continue learning from it and growing.”
That game added fuel to the discussion about whether Giddey was a long-term fit alongside Oklahoma City's star trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. It also raised questions about whether Giddey could play extended minutes in the playoffs.
Will that strategy work in this series? Giddey shot the ball much better after the All-Star break (36.0 on 3-pointers) and was 8 of 13 from behind the arc in the final two games of the Thunder's sweep of the Pelicans.
How much will the Mavs miss Maxi Kleber?
The shoulder injury that will sideline Kleber, a key reserve, for the series is a blow.
Kleber's impact goes far beyond his numbers (5.7 points and 2.7 rebounds per game in the first round). He is the Mavs' “secret weapon for the playoffs,” a team source said. He's an outstanding defender (the Clippers shot just 29.8% when Kelber was the primary defender, according to ESPN Stats & Information), who shot 45.8% on 3-pointers in his last two postseasons and provides coach Jason Kidd with versatility. in the lineup.
The Mavs no longer have an attractive small-ball lineup without Kleber, who played center in a lineup that could switch everything defensively and play a five-out style of offense. That would have been a valuable option to mitigate Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren's presence as a rim protector.
Kleber was also an essential component to the Mavs' mammoth lineups, which could have been helpful against an Oklahoma City team that ranked 28th in the league in rebounding percentage this season. That lineup played a key role in the Mavs' rout of the Clippers in a crucial Game 5, when Dallas outscored Los Angeles by 17 points in 19 minutes when Kleber was paired with either Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II.
–Tim MacMahon
