MOSCOW — Unlike his first term in the White House, President-elect Donald Trump now appears determined to fulfill many of his campaign promises. His cabinet nominations (from Kremlin supporter Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence conspiracy-loving vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of health and human services — confirm their commitment to a scorched earth campaign against American institutions and perceived enemies “from within”.” His victory speech suggests that he is serious about “stopping the wars.”
Trump has been around for a long time stated that would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours to take office. There has been much speculation about a negotiated agreementand all scenarios have one thing in common: the dismemberment of Ukraine. If this is to be the cost of peace, the grim history of territorial partition is worth considering.
Few events create such lasting enmity; fewer still have caused more devastating violence. The three partitions of Poland that took place in the late 18th century are perhaps Europe's closest parallel to what could happen to Ukraine. Beginning in 1772, the Habsburg Monarchy of Austria, the Kingdom of Prussia, and the Russian Empire seized and annexed territory, effectively dividing Polish lands between them and erasing what had been Europe's largest state by landmass.
In the face of such subjugation, violent resistance is almost inevitable. The Poles carried out periodic guerrilla-style campaigns throughout the occupation, with major uprisings in 1831 and 1863. The resistance continued well into the 20th century, led by leader Jozef Piłsudski. campaigns for independence – mixed with acts of terror – before the First World War. Enmity toward Russia in particular endures, and the Kremlin has a Stalin-era style. violence respond to the Polish people.
As for France, it harbored hatred towards Germany for decades because of Kaiser Wilhelm I's decision. absorption of Alsace and Lorraine in the new German Empire after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71. Reconciliation between the two countries only began in the 1950s, with the emergence of the European Coal and Steel Community (precursor to today's European Union) and NATO.
Similarly, Britain's decision to split Ireland, by keeping the northern province of Ulster as part of the United Kingdom, incited a civil war between those willing to cede Northern Ireland and those who rejected any treaty that did not grant Ireland complete independence. That “peace warlasted two years and left a legacy of terror (both Catholic and Protestant) that only ended with the Good Friday Agreementmediated by the United States, in 1998.
Perhaps the most brutal partitions occurred in Asia in the 20th century. In 1932, the Empire of Japan separated Manchuria from the Republic of China and created the puppet state of Manchukuo. The 13 years of Japanese Kwantung Army rule there, which including The enslavement of millions of people, evil medical experimentation, and the slaughter of minorities became a kind of model for the Nazis in Eastern Europe.
However, in terms of lives lost directly due to partition, nothing can compare with that of 1947. division from the Indian subcontinent, after the departure of the British, towards India, with a Hindu majority, and Pakistan, with a Muslim majority. The partition triggered one of the largest migrations in history, involving some 18 million people: Muslims heading to Pakistan (including present-day Bangladesh) and Hindus and Sikhs traveling to India. Sectarian violence, including rape, arson and mass murder, led to the deaths of as many as 3.4 million people.
In the 77 years since the partition of the British Raj, India and Pakistan have fought four wars; the most recent, in 1999, occurred when both countries already had nuclear weapons.
The partition of Vietnam in 1954 (into a northern area, governed by the communist Viet Minh, and a southern area, governed by the Republic of Vietnam) was equally bloody, unleashing two decades of war that left until 3 million Dead Vietnamese.
And then there is 1947-48. split of Palestine into an independent Jewish state and an independent Arab state. This decision by the United Nations unleashed decades of hostility, oppression, terrorism and wars that continue to this day. You only have to look at the ruins of Gaza to see the horrendous legacy of partition.
So what could a partition of Ukraine bring? By fighting for their territorial integrity since February 2022, Ukrainians have shown courage and dynamism, qualities that will undoubtedly contribute to the reconstruction of their country. But given the scale of the human and economic losses they have suffered, they will find it difficult to submit calmly to the idea of partition. It will be especially difficult given that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his your belief that Ukraine is not just a “neighboring country,” but “that modern Ukraine was created entirely by Russia” and should therefore exist only under the Russian umbrella.
In any potential future peace negotiations, Ukrainians know that their best chance of avoiding further Russian interference is through strong international security guarantees, if not immediate membership in NATO.
Trump appears to loathe current U.S. security commitments, but the U.S.'s failure to provide such guarantees could also be detrimental to Russia.
Putin came to power after a devastating war and a prolonged insurrection in the Russian republic of Chechnya, which included terrorist attacks by Chechen separatists in Moscow and other Russian cities. Already in 2022, Ukrainians fiance a guerrilla war against Russia. Without other options, that risk will only increase. Trump should try to persuade the Kremlin of the need for fair negotiations; Otherwise, post-partition terrorism could reach Russia, possibly on a larger scale than Chechens ever imagined.
Nina L. Khrushcheva, professor of international affairs at the New School, is co-author (with Jeffrey Tayler) of “In Putin's footsteps: searching for the soul of an empire in Russia's eleven time zones.”
