TO batch of new surveys from the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer have very bad news for President Biden: He's losing. Among registered voters, he trails far behind in five of the six battleground states most likely to decide the election. He does slightly better among likely voters, but falls behind in five key states.
It's a snapshot, but it's consistent with the overall trend of this campaign: that, once again, it's losing.
Biden and many of his supporters seem to think that the solution is to solve the problems: the economy, the war between Israel and Hamas, student loans, the legalization of marijuana, the threat to democracy, etc. They believe that if they can find the sweet spot in their politics, voters will come home.
That might be true to some extent. But I think focusing on the issues overlooks Biden's real weakness: vibes.
“Vibes” is simply a buzzword for “mood” or “feelings.” Whatever you call them, the relationship between attitudes and problems is not always as rational as some think.
People who care passionately about problems think that problems are really important. In a sense, this is a rather ridiculous tautology. But what I mean is that people who are truly engaged in politics (activists, journalists, donors) believe that the issues drive everyone else's engagement in politics.
Politicians take popular positions on issues based on the understandable assumption that they will be popular as a result. Obviously, it often works this way. But sometimes causality goes in the other direction. Some people start out as rabid supporters or super-fans of a politician, and that shapes their views on issues.
In 2012, for example, when Barack Obama supported gay marriage, millions of Democrats suddenly changed From opposition to support. In 2017, when Donald Trump made protectionism a centerpiece of his agenda, many Republicans change their positions. (They also changed their position on “character,” but that's another story.) I suspect that at least some of Biden's low approval ratings on many issues have less to do with people's political preferences than with their initial assumption that he is wrong.
The Biden campaign wants to take advantage of the abortion issue. That's smart. After the reversal of Roe v. Wade, abortion is really a topic that can take over the vibes. But consider that a constitutional referendum to legalize abortion has 61% support in Florida, while Biden conducts polls 37% in the state. When abortion rights lead a Democratic candidate in polls almost 2 to 1, vibes are a problem.
The best analogy is with 1992. While some partisans and ideologues convinced themselves that they hated George HW Bush, the truth is that most people were simply tired of him, the Republicans, or the status quo.
Bush's economy was not very good, but the relatively mild The recession of 1990-91 was far from the depression portrayed by many in the world. media, the Democratic Party and the electorate. But Bush, who hated campaigning, often helped his critics present him as “out of touch.” It is difficult to describe the reaction to the moment when the president I look in his look during a debate about the recession, which supposedly signifies his distancing, or seemed impressed by a new supermarket checkout scanner, supposedly revealing that he didn't understand how normal people live. In any case, many voters agreed with the worst interpretations.
The mainstream media is not nearly as hostile toward Biden, but that's not the advantage it seems to be. In a populist era, elite media support feels like an establishment circular motion, not only to young, progressive Trump supporters but also to disillusioned young, progressive voters. Even when the press thinks it is helping Biden, it perpetuates the feeling of being out of touch.
Voters resent the idea, pushed for long experts, who should realize that the economy is actually doing much better than they think. Biden is exacerbating the problem by constantly boasting about the economy instead of emulating it. Bush's successful opponent and highlighting your empathy because of what people are experiencing.
The economy is actually doing better than the vibes suggest, although inflation and high interest rates tend to overwhelm all other indicators. The other problem is that, as political scientist Seth Masket points out grades, “Today, presidential approval is largely not tied to economic growth.” Those are vibrations.
Obviously, it would be helpful if Biden could fix inflation and interest rates. But he can't. Plus, his vibe problem extends beyond economics.
His desperation to fix his problems with poll-driven policies and rhetoric underscores the sense that he is floundering and can't keep up with the demands of the job. This feeds and is fed by his age problem. Biden seems exhausted and people are exhausted with him.
