Celebrating his victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, Donald Trump declared: “I have never seen the Republican Party as unified as it is now.”
It was an indisputable victory for Trump, especially considering it was in the home state of his last remaining rival for the nomination, Nikki Haley, a popular twice-elected former South Carolina governor. Trump beat Haley by about 20 points, and it doesn't seem likely that she will do much better than that in the future. Barring some shocking development, it is a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the nominee.
But the Republican Party is not unified, much less unified than ever before. In reality, it is as divided as it was in 1992, which was not a great year for Republican unity.
That was the year Pat Buchanan challenged President George HW Bush for the nomination. Buchanan won just under 38% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, and was widely regarded at the time (and since) as a devastating rebuke and a sign that the Republican Party was in deep disarray.
Buchanan stayed in the race until the end despite failing to win a single primary, just as Haley is now threatening to do. The challenger contributed to Bush's subsequent defeat in the general election, and his candidacy established a lasting Buchananist faction within the party.
Now, Trump is not an incumbent, but countless observers (including me) have noted that he is running as a quasi-incumbent. In fact, last week, Haley referred to him as a “de facto incumbent.” Trump has 100% name identification with him and the party infrastructure has largely acted as if he were still its leader.
More importantly, Trump falsely claims that the 2020 election was stolen and many Republican voters believe him. This lie is often denounced for noble reasons having to do with democracy and fitness for office, and rightly so. I believe Trump disqualified himself from political office with the conduct that culminated in the riots of January 6, 2021. But his practical effects on the Republican Party are often overlooked.
Much of the right-wing media and many Republican elected officials, including most of Trump's primary opponents, refused to acknowledge that he had lost. This prevented the party from turning the page on Trump or having a healthy debate about whether to leave Trumpism behind.
Normally, when a party loses, its opposing faction has a chance. That couldn't happen in this case. As a result, Trump operates as an incumbent, a very weak incumbent.
But while the internal party reckoning that comes with a loss may be delayed, it cannot be denied. Over time, the opposition prepares for its turn in power. Indeed, when Trump was elected in 2016, many – including Buchanan himself – hailed his victory as a long-delayed vindication of Buchananism.
However, there is a key difference between 2024 and 1992. Buchanan's campaign was on issues such as immigration, trade and foreign policy, among them. Today, with the partial exception of support for Ukraine (opposition to which is largely an indicator of support for Trump and his Russophilia), Republicans are not very divided on any issue other than their own. Donald Trump.
In the old days, Republicans who were moderates on abortion, defense, or taxes were often nicknamed “RINOs,” Republicans in name only. Today, the term is reserved almost exclusively for Republicans who are not sufficiently loyal to Trump.
Texas Rep. Chip Roy, for example, is easily one of the most conservative Republicans in Congress. But his support for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' campaign was enough for Trump to call Roy RINO and ask for a primary challenge.
Trump has wavered on abortion, fidelity to the Constitution and other former conservative litmus tests without paying a price among self-described conservatives. Furthermore, the need to disguise his innumerable character defects invites a kind of pathological defense of the man as a whole that has completely erased the “character question.” In fact, it's fair to say that many voters who describe themselves as “very conservative” mean they are very supportive of Trump.
Similarly, Haley enjoys strong support among self-described moderate Republicans. But on the issues that once defined the party, she is conservative.
Haley's determination to stay in the race probably won't lead to her becoming president one day. But if the Republican Party once again has a traditional conservative as its standard-bearer, it will be because she helped preserve a safe space for them within the party.
