- Verbal interventions from the Japanese government helped the USD/JPY bears.
- The weakness of the US dollar and falling Treasury yields allowed gold to set its 50th record high in 2025.
Japan has free rein to counter Forex speculators. These words from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama were enough to reverse the rally. The government is concerned about the excessively rapid movements of the pair, considers them far from fundamentals and intends to take action. The hint of monetary intervention turned out to be such a serious threat that the yen, which had been significantly oversold after the Bank of Japan meeting, rose from the ashes.
The increase in the overnight interest rate gave the Ministry of Finance an argument to intervene in Forex. Tightening monetary policy usually causes currency appreciation. However, in this case, the yen did the opposite: it weakened. This allows the government to talk about USD/JPY being decoupled from fundamentals and hint at monetary intervention. Furthermore, strengthening the yen is part of the plans not only of Japan but also of the United States.
The fall of the USD/JPY would not have been so rapid if it were not for the decline of the dollar against the world's main currencies. CME data showed there are big bets in the debt market on bond yields returning to 4%. As a result, yields fell, weakening the dollar. Steven Miran's speech added fuel to the fire of the . The FOMC official warned that the Federal Reserve risks triggering a US recession if it continues to keep rates high.
Falling Treasury yields and weakening US dollar created a tailwind for . The precious metal reached its 50th record in 2025 and approached the psychologically important mark of $4,500 per ounce. Since the beginning of the year, its price has increased by around 70%. This is the second best result in history. The first occurred in 1979, when the energy crisis triggered massive inflation.
According to the World Gold Council, at the end of November the reserves of specialized exchange-traded funds amounted to 3,932 tons. In 11 months, they increased by 700 tonnes and are likely to see record growth in value terms for the year. The largest inflows into ETFs in late autumn were recorded in China.
He FxPro Analyst team
