rose to 154.91 on Tuesday. The yen gave up the previous session's gains, while the dollar found support despite uncertainty over US trade policy.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced his intention to increase global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision that nullified his “reciprocal” duties. He also warned of tougher measures against countries that “play” with existing trade agreements.
Tokyo urged Washington to ensure that the court's decision does not harm Japanese companies and reaffirmed its commitment to the existing trade agreement with the US.
At the same time, Japanese media reported that US authorities held consultations last month on currency policy to support the yen and are prepared to coordinate a possible intervention at Japan's request. The initiative was overseen by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent amid concerns that political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election could increase market volatility.
Technical analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 154.00. It has now broken to the upside, opening the way for a move towards 155.75. After reaching this level, a drop towards 151.80 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above the zero level while turning clearly downwards.
According to the USD/JPY H1 chart, the pair has broken above 154.80 and is forming an ascending wave structure with a target at 155.75. Thereafter, a pullback to 154.70 cannot be ruled out. This scenario is confirmed by the stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is situated above the 80 level and continues to point firmly upwards.
Conclusion
In summary, USD/JPY has resumed its bullish momentum, breaking out of recent consolidation as the dollar finds support despite growing trade policy uncertainty. The market is weighing Trump's aggressive tariff stance against signs that U.S. officials are willing to support the yen if necessary.
Technically, the pair has broken short-term resistance and is targeting 155.75, with indicators suggesting further near-term upside potential. However, the overall picture remains clouded by geopolitical risks and the possibility of coordinated intervention should the yen weaken excessively. A sustained move above 155.75 would open the way towards 157.00, while a reversal below 154.70 could signal a return to range-bound trading.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer
Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
