As you know, today is a very important day since we will receive the . These employment numbers could give us more clues about what the Fed might do next, whether it will continue with a cycle or a pause. We must also realize that for most of 2025, especially in the second half of the year, fewer jobs were created each month.
The market now expects around 66,000 jobs, while the previous reading was 64,000. A figure near or below 50,000 would likely indicate that the labor market is weakening, which could initially cause some pressure on stocks, but later stocks could stabilize, due to expectations of rate cuts.
On the other hand, stronger data, above 70,000 or closer to 100,000, would likely be bullish for the dollar as fewer cuts would be needed from the Federal Reserve. So this data is clearly very important.
But it's also important to remember that any moves we see immediately after the data is released are often reversed later in the session. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I continue to see the current dollar recovery as a C wave, suggesting that we could be moving towards strong resistance around 99.30. This means that we may be in the late stages of this corrective move, and a reversal could begin to appear in the coming days.
