- The Australian dollar confidently leads the G10 currency race.
- Thanks to geopolitics, gold can rise to $6,000.
The US dollar effectively ignored the month of January. Jerome Powell spoke more than usual about inflation and said that it has not yet been defeated. Investors might consider his rhetoric to be moderately hawkish. However, they were more taken aback by the fact that Christopher Waller voted for a rate cut. His chances of becoming the new chairman of the Federal Reserve have increased. The probability of monetary expansion in June fell from 65% to 61%. However, the bulls managed to regain the initiative.
Markets continue to speculate on the White House's interest in weakening the dollar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to reassure investors that the United States always pursues a strong dollar policy. However, the Treasury Secretary had previously said that there was no relationship between policy and the price of the US currency.
According to Donald Trump, the fall of the USD index increases the competitiveness of American companies. But today's high-tech exports are less susceptible to this form of competition. For consumers, price is one factor among many. They pay attention to security, reliability and other features. Even if foreigners buy more American products thanks to the weak dollar, problems with values will arise.
In 2025, the euro strengthened by 14% against the dollar, leading to a decline in non-resident earnings. They will now think twice before buying fundamentally overvalued US stocks. One option will be to increase hedging volumes, which will continue to drag down the USD index.
Scott Bessent's statement that the United States did not intervene in Forex to sell the dollar against the Japanese yen allowed the bottom to hit. , by contrast, hit three-year highs amid accelerating inflation and a decline in unemployment to 4.1%. The chances of the Reserve Bank raising its key interest rate in February have risen to 60%. This makes the Australian dollar one of the leaders in Forex.
Taking advantage of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, it approached $5,600 for the first time in history. Donald Trump threatens Iran with military attacks, South Korea with 25% tariffs, and Canada with 100% tariffs. According to Deutsche Bank, the precious metal could rise to $6,000 an ounce in 2026.
He FxPro Analyst team
