Donald Trump can hardly be blamed for Believing that divine providence is on your sideHe has had the most impressive run of luck ever remembered in politics.
While his debate performance was exceptional only on a curve, his opponent's performance was a disaster by any objective standard. The Supreme Court then issued a ruling Extremely fortuitous ruling on presidential immunitywhich, at the very least, delayed the federal cases against him until after the election. And a single opinion by Justice Clarence Thomas in that decision apparently inspired Aileen Cannon, a federal judge in Florida, to Discard the classified documents case Against him.
Oh, and an assassin shot him and missed. More accurately: almost omitted. A bullet pierced the top of Trump’s right ear; had he turned his head a millimeter or two in the wrong direction, he would have died, and the graphic images of his assassination would now serve as the backdrop to a dark new chapter in American life.
All of this happened on the eve of the Republican National Convention, which galvanized the party and solidified support for Trump’s candidacy. It’s understandable, if irrational in a very human way. There’s no logic to the idea that the fact that a disturbed young man (a registered Republican) shot Trump makes him more suitable to be president, but it makes emotional sense.
It also deprives President Biden of the central reason for his reelection, at least for the foreseeable future. Aside from abortion rights, “protecting democracy” was going to be the issue Biden was going to use to get himself reelected. In the current climate, however, attacking Trump as a threat to democracy sounds like extreme rhetoric, as it has at times. But if Biden can no longer make that case against Trump, after spending tens of millions of dollars on ads to expose him, what arguments does he have?
I reject the idea that criticizing Trump for his attempt to steal the last election or for his own extreme rhetoric is suddenly illegitimate. But political reality is what it is.
What's even more fortunate for Trump is that the assassination attempt also boosted Biden's candidacy, albeit in a very different way.
The Democratic Party is not enthusiastic about Biden. In a NBC News Poll In a poll conducted shortly before the shooting, only 33% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they were satisfied with their party’s nominee, compared with 71% on the Republican side. There is no reason to think the assassination attempt will cause rank-and-file Democrats to rally around Biden.
But what it has done is provoke high-ranking Democrats who were determined to get Biden off the ballot Lose the hope and resign themselves to losing. “The presidential race ended last night,” said an unnamed “veteran Democratic consultant.” NBC News after the attempted murder.”[Trump] “He was already on track to win,” said one Democratic Senate aide. Traffic light“And the fact that he is now a victim of political violence rather than a perpetrator undermines Biden’s core appeal.”
I think that's the case, and all reports suggest that Democrats have lost the will to do anything about it.
Biden’s Oval Office speech on Sunday wasn’t terrible. He struck a welcome, conciliatory tone, and his shades of unnecessary partisanship were tempered in part because they were necessary. Biden is an avatar of the cultural status quo: He ran to restore normalcy and “unify” the country. Whether or not it’s fair to judge him on that basis, he failed.
And that’s why the speech was a missed opportunity. Biden could have announced that he was no longer his party’s nominee and, in the process, tried to drag Trump down with him. He could have said — and should have said — that this country is better than a race that most Americans don’t want between two grumpy old men who have come to represent two warring tribes. He should have called for turning the page and giving the country a new beginning.
Biden is an unpopular president who is not going to get any more vigorous or cognitively sharp, and he certainly isn't going to have a moment like Trump had on Saturday night.
Simply put, Biden's luck has run out, but he could yet end his opponent's unlikely streak of luck.
