A week before I give up From the State Department last October, I reminded my colleagues that it had been clear for decades that the only route to the just and lasting peace that all civilians in Israel and Palestine deserve is not through military victory, but through through a diplomatic commitment. It is not about creating fear, but about generating trust; not killing enemies, but making friends; not imposing suffering, but inspiring hope.
Unfortunately, more than three months later, the United States and its Israeli partner continue to take the first option in each of those options. Palestinian officials say the death toll in Gaza is now more than 24,000, although U.S. officials grant It's probably higher.
For those seeking an end to the conflict in Gaza and a just and lasting resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the future looks bleak. The status quo we find ourselves in is characterized by irresolvable contradictions between the actions of the various stakeholders involved, and even their own political priorities. The result? A maze where every turn leads to a dead end.
Take, for example, Israel's explicit objectives in its operations in Gaza: to free the hostages and destroy Hamas. As has become increasingly cleareven to the Israeli publicthe country can choose one or the other, but it is unlikely to achieve both.
Or take the future government of Gaza: this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cleared up that has no interest in a Palestinian state emerging from the current conflict. For those who have followed his statements for some time, this was nothing new: Netanyahu has celebrated repeatedly his success in hindering the creation of the State promised by the Oslo Accords process.
At the same time, it has also promised to his followers that there will be no unified government by the Palestinian Authority of Gaza and the West Bank. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has been flying around the Middle East and Europe. promising American support on a path towards the Palestinian State. But suppose some kind of identifiable Palestinian entity emerged to govern both the West Bank and Gaza: for Israel and the United States, a Hamas role in that entity is unacceptable. So the options proposed by the United States and Israel seem to range from “you can't have self-government, much less a state” to “we could have a state eventually, but we will tell you who you can choose.” “
What about the reconstruction of Gaza, where three quarters of the housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, not to mention the devastation of infrastructure such as water, electricity, hospitals and even schools and universities? Reconstruction would cost tens of billions of dollars and take a decade under the best of circumstances. But Israel is likely to continue to oppose the import of many construction materials that it considers “dual-use,” meaning bad actors could exploit the products for other purposes. Meanwhile, Arab countries have told the United States that they will not invest in building facilities that will be torn down again within five years; However, who can imagine Israel promising not to take such measures?
And what happens to the Palestinians who survive the current bombing? There is insufficient infrastructure feed, clothe and employ them in Gaza, but the idea of a resettlement of hundreds of thousands of desperate civilians out of Gaza, however temporary, smacks of a second Nakba, when Palestinians were displaced from their homes in 1948, and comes No guarantees , Israel will allow them to re-enter the strip.
Everywhere you look, there are only dead ends. If we continue on the current path, the most likely future is a future without a Palestinian state but also without a clear alternative. One without a ceasefire, in which Israel periodically attacks those it considers a threat, both in Gaza and the West Bank. One in which Palestinian citizens of Israel and residents of East Jerusalem face greater repression in a more polarized society. One in which there is an ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and an emerging refugee crisis in the Sinai.
In this most likely future, everyone loses. Palestinians continue to suffer in increasingly grotesque conditions. Israel misses the opportunity for lasting peace, becomes increasingly isolated from the world community and never gains the real security its citizens deserve. Another generation prone to radicalization is emerging in the Middle East. And the United States loses any remaining thread of moral credibility and finds itself tied to another disaster in the region at a time when it so urgently seeks to shift its focus eastward.
It does not have to be this way; It hasn't had to be that way for months. The United States and its allies and partners have the influence necessary to force the warring parties to make the necessary concessions, starting with a ceasefire, recognition of the Palestinian state and support for all the diplomatic, economic and security measures that will be necessary to embark on the right path.
Instead, President Biden remains trapped in his embrace of Netanyahu and continues to give him, Without conditionthe weapons used to devastate Gaza, the diplomatic cover used to prevent real political solutions or any accountability under international law, and as committed as ever to whatever course Israel sets, no matter how contradictory or detrimental to both Israeli and Israeli interests. Americans.
The current path leads nowhere. It is time for America to change direction.
Josh Paul was, until recently, director of the State Department's Office of Political-Military Affairs.
