The 2028 presidential campaign can't come soon enough.
Think about it: new faces, crossed by fewer lines. Fresh ideas, not the authoritarian and deliberately divisive kind (we can hope so). Fresh blood, and without triggering Hitlerite conversations about “poisoning” our nation.
A new feud, not a revenge of two unpopular geriatric retreads. First, though, we have to make it to 2024. Spoiler alert: we will, successfully.
opinion columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes brings a critical look to the national political scene. He has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
January, the more cruel month (apologies, TS Eliot), has made it clear that this year will be as bad politically as the pessimists projected, both in the presidential race and in Congress. Tuesday's results in New Hampshire, in addition to last week's results in the Iowa caucuses, confirmed that the Republican presidential primaries are all but over: a small portion of voters in the states they represent about 1.4% of the American population has decided that Trump will be the Republican candidate against a weakened President Biden.
So much for the conventional wisdom three years ago this month, after then-President Trump's deadly machinations to stay in power, that Republicans were finally breaking free of him. After four criminal indictments and 91 felony charges, Trump's incessant comments about victimhood have united his supporters. Of the dozen Republicans who ran against him for the nomination (unfortunately, most without really running against him), the last man standing is a woman.
And despite Nikki Haley vote tuesday To continue running “a marathon,” it is difficult to see her running for much longer. It's all uphill until next month's primary in South Carolina, where she was once a popular governor, and Trump has an overwhelming lead among Republicans in polls there.
Republican officials are lining up to back the man they privately loathe. Paul D. Ryan, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, vice presidential candidate, and standard-bearer for the future of the Republicans. he lamented the “predicament” in which his party finds itself: “Fear [of Trump] It’s so palpable.”
Meanwhile, the chaos that follows Trump (in Haley's oft-repeated comment) words – infects the House, (mis)managed as it is by Republicans who follow their direction, now more than ever. The House is in recess again, having left town last week in disagreement with Republicans and Democrats in the Senate over the annual budget, immigration and aid to Ukraine and Israel. And once again, extremists in the House of Representatives are threatening to repeat the president's first-ever overthrow last year, which paralyzed the entire Congress for weeks. The current holder of the position, “MAGA Mike” Johnson, is not proving to be tough enough. With one word from an emboldened Trump, his head could spin.
And yet, despite all the bleak news ahead about our politics and governance, I remain optimistic that, come November, American voters No restore to the nation's highest office an indecent, ignorant, undemocratic narcissist, whether or not he is a convicted felon.
At this point, polls can be used to defend Trump's position. either Biden's election. Both men will see ups and downs heading into November, and the outcome will undoubtedly be close in the decisive battleground states. But early polls suggest Biden has an advantage among undecided voters; Last month, a New York Times poll gave him a 50% to 38% lead among independents. Even Trump's former press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, warned Tuesday night on Fox News that he is alienating too many Republicans and independents.
In spite of the Republican bias In the electoral college, which disproportionately favors many rural, less populated, red states over diverse, big, blue states like California and New York, I believe enough Americans will reject a would-be dictator with an agenda to match. “It's good to have a strong man running your country,” Trump permitted at a Saturday rally in New Hampshire, after raving once again about a dictator he wants to emulate.
We will be hearing a lot of undemocratic nonsense, and worse, over the next nine months. If that kind of speech doesn't scare off most voters once they're tuned in, I'm sure it will at least discourage enough of them to give Mr. Thumbs up the nod. The same goes for Trump's disdain for the rule of law, which he will surely voice throughout the year in various courts. Last week he released puerile outbursts before the judge in the New York case to decide how much she should pay E. Jean Carroll for defaming her as a liar by saying he had sexually assaulted her.
“You just can't control yourself,” federal Judge Lewis A. Kaplan correctly noted amid Trump's antics. “And you can’t do it either,” Trump snapped. That's not the worst thing about him: Trump's bad words toward judges and prosecutors in his cases have forced them to live with maximum security in the face of death threats. This is not the behavior of a man most voters want to call “President” again.
depressingly, two-thirds of Iowans those who voted in the Republican caucuses believed Trump's big lie that Biden did not win the election legitimately; about half of New Hampshire's Republican primary voters agreed. However, most of us live in the real world, the one in which Trump's own attorney general and Homeland Security officials proclaimed the election was fair. We watched for hours as his supporters desecrated the Capitol in his name, while he watched and did nothing. Stay tuned for replays throughout the year.
He entry and exit surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire were early evidence that a sizable minority of Republicans and independents are committed to defeating Trump, along with Democrats. It is these facts that leave me with cautious confidence: if Trump continues all year complaining, lying, and thus solidifying his place as president of the United States, the most sore loser in history, most voters will help him finish the job in November. Again.
And then both parties can begin to form a new generation of leaders. Better late than never.
