Despite all the speculation and wishful thinking about who or what could knock President Biden or Donald Trump out of the 2024 presidential race, their rematch was never much in doubt. Instead, in a measure of how grim the race is, the only real question has been relatively inconsequential: Who will be Trump's running mate?
That question should be: Who want be your running mate? After all, Trump rewarded former Vice President Mike Pence for his four years of emasculating adulation to the abandoning him at the mercy of the mob who wanted to hang Pence on January 6, 2021, telling an adviser: “Maybe our supporters have the right idea.” Pence, in his own rebuke, says that will not vote for “anyone who puts themselves above the Constitution.”
opinion columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes brings a critical look to the national political scene. He has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
However, Pence's disgraceful treatment at the hands of Trump apparently does not deter ambitious Republicans who covet proximity to power and possession of Air Force Two, should Trump be elected again. There is no shortage of vice presidential hopefuls for the disgraced former president to choose from.
And there is no shortage of press speculation either. The quadrennium Speculation about the risks has been accelerating. and will go into full gear during the next month, given Trump's talk who will wait to name his candidate at the Republican National Convention in mid-July. “I have a pretty good idea,” he joked Thursday with Fox News, and media speculators lately they are betting about Senators JD Vance of Ohio, Marco Rubio of Florida or North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum: all MAGA men, who easily meet the job requirement of being appropriately subservient.
The entire speculative exercise is nonsense and always has been. As proof, consider how often journalists and pundits have been blindsided over the past half century.
In August 1988, I was meeting with other reporters around a newsroom television to watch George HW Bush reveal his pick for vice president. To our surprise, and also to almost all the experts, he named the junior senator Dan Quayle. “Not only did Bush not name the best senator,” exclaimed a co-worker, “he didn't name the best senator from Indiana!” (That was Richard Lugar).
Bush himself was a surprise choice for vice president when Ronald Reagan chose him at the 1980 Republican convention, given the poisonous rivalry between the two for the nomination. Reagan landed on Bush only after Reagan failed to produce something amazing for the ages: a supposed “dream ticket” with former President Gerald R. Ford serving as vice president, promising a co-presidency of sorts if they won.
In 1984, virtually no media outlet trying to preview Walter Mondale's Democratic running mate had relatively unknown Rep. Geraldine Ferraro of New York among their top bets, but Mondale made her the first woman on a party presidential ticket. important. Because presidential candidates often look for a partner who complements them (say, by age, region, or experience), Bill Clinton made a quick decision in 1992 by selecting Senator Al Gore of Tennessee, a fellow southerner, boomer, and moderate Democrat.
Eight years later, when Gore was the Democrats' standard-bearer in 2000, few journalists had Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman as a leading contender, but he became the first Jewish candidate on a major party ticket. The big obstacle that year, however, was on the Republican side: George W. Bush overlooked the perspectives that adviser Dick Cheney was examining and turned to Cheney himself.
John McCain, needing to revive his 2008 campaign, pushed aside prominent Republican governors and senators that journalists (and McCain advisers) were touting as vice presidential contenders and settled for the shock value of Alaska's rookie governor, Sarah Palin. “Sara who?” was the almost universal reaction. America surely found out.
The thing is, the only person who really knows the option for #2 is #1. And #1 can, and often does, reconsider.
This is especially true when we talk about the always erratic Trump, who considers himself his best strategist. He seems to approach the vice president selection like an episode of a reality show, weighing whether the would-be trainees are beyond their means. “central melt” (but not so much as to overshadow the star of the show) and how to build up the suspense for the finale.
Trump would probably like nothing more than to thwart the media's guessing game, and even his advisers' script, and make a last-minute U-turn. Hell, not be a dog lover, might even give a thumbs up to Kristi Noem. The South Dakota governor was considered an excellent prospect until last month, when she was discharged after she agreed to execute Cricket, the family dog.
In 2016Pence, Trump's opposite in almost every way, did not dominate the speculation. but he complemented the presidential candidate well. For the former casino magnate, thrice married and then obsessed with winning over evangelical voters, the pious Pence was just the partner Trump needed. In a sign of how he would hire and fire as president, he announced Pence's selection in a cheep.
Trump no longer needs help getting support from evangelicals. This time it is said that he is interested in The support of black menand perhaps wrest more from Biden by choosing, say, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, or Ben Carson, his former Housing Secretary.
Who knows? Only Trump.
But that won't stop us from speculating. He never has.
@jackiekcalmes
