On Sunday, Mexicans will go to the polls to vote on more than 20,000 elected officials in the largest election in a generation. This year's vote will also likely result in the country's first female president: former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum or Senator Xóchitl Gálvez. As electoral experts and democracy professionals, we are observing this historic democratic exercise with enthusiasm and concern. Mexico's electoral machinery is struggling in the face of violence and threats. The quality of the Mexican vote is important for the United States because the challenges facing our ally and largest trading partner – migration to the north, economic development and drug trafficking – are also our challenges. Solving them begins with free and fair elections that deliver a strong mandate to Mexico's leaders.
This electoral cycle in Mexico is already the most violent in recent memory. In the seven months between September and May 2, 560 victims suffered lethal and non-lethal electoral violence; There have been at least 195 election-related killings, including at least 34 candidates. In the last election cycle, 2020-21, among 299 victims of election-related violence, there were 88 murders. The turf wars of recent months between battling cartels and organized crime syndicates are putting candidates and politicians in the crosshairs at the local level and in a handful of states in central and southern Mexico.
These trends mean that many of the candidates who survive the campaign and win office in the regions most affected by electoral violence will be at least suspected of responding not to voters, but to the interests of those who allowed them to take office. Gregorio Portillo Mendoza, former mayor of Zirándaro, in the state of Guerrero, was kidnapped and tortured by members of the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel for refusing to take sides in their turf war with the Familia Michoacana. “Here the mayors do not govern,” he told the newspaper El Universal. “It's the cartels that rule.”
Meanwhile, Mexico's widely respected National Electoral Institute, which oversees state and federal elections, is on the defensive. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his majority in Congress led by the Morena party have been working to undermine the independence and power of the institute through attacks on its reputation, failing to make key appointments, and through staff reductions and successive budgets. cuts.
The Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Branch of the Mexican Federation, responsible for certifying results at the federal and state level, is also in disarray. Appointments to fill two of its magistrate vacancies were blocked and the presiding magistrate, Reyes Rodríguez Mondragón, was forced to resign just six months before the elections. State and local courts have also been emptied; more than a third of state magistrate positions remain vacant (36 of 107).
Aware of its own limitations in a highly charged political and social environment, the Electoral Tribunal partnered with more than 40 non-governmental, academic and private sector organizations, as well as councilors from the National Electoral Institute and representatives of local electoral bodies, to create a watchdog group to preserve electoral integrity. The National Agreement for Electoral Integrity and other civil society groups do not replace strong and independent state institutions, but they play the fundamental role of promoting the transparency of institutions such as the institute and the court.
The United States can help Mexico's electoral institutions by first publicly asking the Mexican government to protect candidates and their campaigns. Even at this point, the Biden administration can help mobilize funding for election observers across the country. It can specifically help watchdogs like the Election Integrity Coalition as they monitor, document and report irregularities. After the elections, the United States can make it a diplomatic priority to encourage Mexico to revitalize its key electoral institutions. Even if organized crime manages to influence electoral results (through violence or fraud), these institutions are essential to investigate, punish and rectify electoral crimes and corruption in the future.
Antonio Garrastazu is senior director for Latin America and the Caribbean of the International Republican Institute. Patrick Quirk is vice president of strategy and innovation. and impact on the nonpartisan International Republican Institute. From 2018 to 2019, he served in the US. yesSecretary of the State Policy Planning Staff.
