Republicans are the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats.
The Republican Party has a democracy problemthanks to Donald Trump, already competition problemthanks to a little one, contraction Repeatedly electing House majority Trump and failure about reality and government. Now, thanks to their ascendant theological wing, Republicans have a rapidly expanding abortion problem that could tilt close races toward Democrats across the country, even in Democratic states where abortion is legal and available.
The latest test came in New York's 3rd Congressional District, where Democrat Tom Suozzi won a House seat with a decisive victory Feb. 13 in a special election to replace ousted Republican George Santos. About 72% of the district supports abortion rights, Suozzi pollster Mike Bocian recently told the New Republic's Daily Blast podcast: but that did not guarantee that voters would turn out.
“The challenge in New York and California has been that while voters are very pro-choice,” he said, “they don't really feel that abortion is at risk in their states.” And so the campaign heavily publicized the threat of a national abortion ban, which helped fuel Suozzi's victory.
Three days after that election, the prospect of a national ban seemed even greater. The New York Times reported that Trump, the almost certain Republican nominee in 2024, privately favors a ban on abortions after 16 weeks of gestation. He apparently chose that limit with the same scientific rigor that he applied when evaluating ivermectin and bleach as treatments for COVID: “It's even. “It's four months.”
This is far from the only development that intensifies the debate over abortion and what is at stake in this year's elections. The U.S. Supreme Court must decide this year whether limit the use of mifepristone, part of an FDA-approved two-pill combination that can be used at home and represents more than a half of abortions in the country.
And now the Alabama Supreme Court has ruled that frozen embryos created for in vitro fertilization are “extrauterine children”covered by state wrongful death laws. The Legislature could act to protect IVF, but what about other states? Could anti-abortion legislatures and courts take similar action regarding frozen embryos?
Voters in Democratic states may think they have no role to play, but they are wrong. As a Democratic data guru Tom Bonier said in a tweet about Bocian's comments: “This point about abortion rights is massive. The issue did not mobilize Democrats in NY3 in 2022. By emphasizing the threat of a national ban in this race, they changed that.”
To see why it's huge, watch California. As NYhas four House seats held by Republicans that the Cook Political Report rates like pure throws. That's eight strong opportunities for Democrats to flip seats.
How close were some of those California races in 2022? Republican Rep. John Duarte defeated Democrat Adam Gray by less than 600 votes in the Central Valley's 13th Congressional District. Now they are headed for a rematch, with Duarte defending abortion. Democrats are attacking him for his own votes to limit access and the broad attack on general reproductive rights by the “Duarte majority.”
In another Central Valley district, Republican Rep. David Valadao defeated Democrat Rudy Salas by just over 3,000 votes in 2022; Now Democrats are attacking his support for “dangerous new national abortion restrictions,” and Salas is criticizing a fellow Democrat's views on abortion as he seeks a rematch against Valadao.
A few hundred or thousands of voters more concerned about reproductive freedoms would be enough to swing close races like this at every level. And even a handful of House victories could transfer control of the chamber to Democrats and ensure there is no national ban on abortion.
Of course, re-electing President Biden would be the final stop to a national ban and his promise to restore federal protections for abortion.”for all women in all states” could win him crucial votes in swing states.
The surprising thing broad support to protect abortion rights suggests it will play a role everywhere, including throw out the Senate races in Arizona, Montana and Ohio, where Democrats face difficult paths to re-election. Young people are another group of voters with untapped potential. Since the repeal of Roe, “no topic is more important to young women than abortion,” pollster Daniel Coxdirector and founder of the American Enterprise Institute's Survey Center on American Life, told Politico this month.
Democrats have plenty of other strong arguments to make this year, from Biden's thriving economy to preserving democracy (the voters' top issue in a recent poll) to the House GOP's rejection, at Trump's behest, of a tough bipartisan border deal that Biden accepted and the Senate was ready to approve. Suozzi used an “all of the above” approach in New York and it worked.
All of them are crucial. Still, it's hard to find anything comparable to abortion when it comes to personal pain, self-determination, and aftereffects that are uncomfortably reminiscent of Gilead, where “The Handmaid's Tale” takes place. Some conservatives talk about ending the “meaningless use“of birth control pills and how”recreational sex“It leads to poverty, crime and dysfunction. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas wants reconsider rulings on contraception and gay marriage. Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Parker was filled fire and brimstone in our supposedly secular government, guided in its IVF concurrence by “the wrath of a holy God.”
These are value judgments and unpleasant religious beliefs, not persuasive political arguments. The Democrats have the winning hand here, and I'm grateful (for countless reasons) that they're already playing hardball.
Jill Lorenzo is a writer and author of “The Art of the Political Deal: How Congress Beat the Odds and Broke the Deadline.” @JillDLawrence
