It stabilized near $4,400 per ounce on Friday after a sharp drop the previous day. The market found support in Donald Trump's decision to postpone the deadline to reach an agreement with Iran to end the conflict.
The United States has promised to postpone the attack on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6, offering some relief to market tensions. Trump also claimed that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a gesture toward the United States.
Meanwhile, Tehran confirmed that it had rejected the 15-point plan proposed by the United States and proposed its own conditions, including recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold lost almost 3% the previous day amid doubts about the prospects of an imminent truce. Overall, the metal remains under pressure as rising energy prices continue to raise inflationary risks and reinforce expectations for tighter policy from major central banks.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around $4,353. A bullish breakout would pave the way for a correction to $4,820, while a bearish breakout could extend the bearish wave to $4,272. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line currently below the center line but pointing firmly upwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke above $4,414 and completed a wave to $4,474. Looking ahead, a corrective move back to $4,414 is likely, followed by a further advance towards $4,690. The stochastic oscillator supports this scenario as its signal line remains above 80 and shows continued bullish pressure.
Conclusion
Gold has found temporary respite following the US decision to delay attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, easing immediate geopolitical tensions. However, Tehran's rejection of the US proposal and its insistence on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz underscores how fragile the situation is. While the postponement offers short-term respite, the underlying factors – elevated energy prices, persistent inflationary risks and expectations of tighter central bank policies – persist. With technical indicators pointing to a potential corrective bounce, gold's broader path will likely depend on whether diplomatic efforts gain traction or tensions reignite after the April 6 deadline.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer:
Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
