Prices stabilized around $4,830 per ounce on Thursday after a sixth straight decline, marking the longest losing streak since late 2024. The market remains under pressure from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which currently outweighs geopolitical risks.
The Federal Reserve stood firm and signaled only one cut this year. Jerome Powell emphasized that policy easing would only be possible with a more certain slowdown in inflation. The central bank also noted increased uncertainty amid the Middle East conflict, indicating that rising energy prices could add to inflationary pressure.
Tensions rose further following Iranian missile attacks on a facility in Qatar that houses the world's largest LNG infrastructure. The action was reported to be retaliation for Israel's recent attack on the South Pars gas field.
While geopolitics often supports safe haven demand, it simultaneously drives up oil prices. This dynamic intensifies pressure on gold through elevated inflation expectations and implications for interest rates.
Since the beginning of the year, gold has remained in positive territory by about 12%. However, momentum has waned as expectations of substantial rate cuts have receded, leading some investors to lock in profits to meet margin requirements on other assets.
Technical analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around $4,858. A bullish breakout could pave the way for a correction towards $5,090, while a bearish breakout could extend the wave down to $4,761. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line below the center line and pointing strictly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke below the $5,035 level and completed a wave to $4,852. Looking ahead, a wave of corrective growth towards $5,044 is possible, followed by a further decline to $4,761. The stochastic oscillator supports this scenario as its signal line remains above 50 and shows potential to rise towards 80 before declining.
Conclusion
Gold's six-day streak of losses reflects the market's recalibration toward a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with only one rate cut now priced in for 2026. While rising tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on Qatar's LNG infrastructure, generally drive safe-haven demand, the simultaneous impact on inflation expectations and inflation expectations is proving to be the stronger force, keeping pressure on the unprofitable asset. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential towards $4,761, although oversold conditions could lead to temporary bounces. The metal's year-to-date gains have been trimmed as investors adjust their positions ahead of what now appears to be a prolonged period of higher rates.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer: Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
