On Thursday it was trading at around $4,550 an ounce, remaining close to its monthly lows. Pressure on the metal continues to mount as rising energy prices fuel inflation expectations and increase the likelihood of tighter monetary policy by the world's major central banks.
Donald Trump affirmed that the United States will maintain its naval blockade of Iran until a nuclear deal is reached. Tehran responded by accusing Washington of using economic restrictions and internal destabilization as tools of political pressure.
The prolonged conflict in the Middle East, coupled with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continues to disrupt global markets. Investors are reducing expectations for interest rate cuts this year and are beginning to price in the possibility of rate increases in 2027.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. However, several officials openly disagreed, underscoring growing divisions within the Federal Reserve amid heightened uncertainty.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, it is trading within a consolidation range above the $4,515 level. A bullish move could pave the way for a corrective bounce towards $4,767. On the downside, a further decline towards $4,500 is possible. The MACD indicator supports the current recovery scenario, with the signal line below the zero mark but pointing firmly upwards, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has broken through the USD 4,560 level and continues its upward movement towards USD 4,650. A short-term pullback towards $4,560 remains possible as a retest from above, after which the price could resume its advance towards $4,770. The stochastic oscillator supports this view, with the signal line rising steadily towards 80, suggesting growing bullish momentum.
Conclusion
Gold remains under pressure from lingering inflation concerns and hawkish expectations from central banks, but signs of near-term stabilization are emerging. While geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand, gold's broader direction will depend on whether inflation fears or expectations of tighter monetary policy prove to be the market's stronger driver.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer: Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
