Let's talk about the couple, friends! We are seeing mixed dynamics here, with the price consolidating near the 2350.00 mark. Investors are in wait-and-see mode, awaiting new events that could move prices. The big expectation of the week is the United States employment report, which will be published on Friday. This report is crucial to understanding how the economy is doing and can give us clues about possible interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.
Currently, there is a 51% chance that the first rate cut will occur in September, and further cuts are possible in November or December.
The dollar began the week under pressure due to weak macroeconomic data on business activity. The ISM manufacturing sector index fell from 49.2 to 48.7 in May, well below expectations.
On Wednesday we have the Bank of Canada meeting, which can cut the reference rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. This could set an interesting precedent. At the same time, the US dollar could gain momentum in the short term as the interest rate differential with the Federal Reserve would widen.
On Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a moderate easing of monetary policy, also of 25 basis points. This could increase the attractiveness of gold, which does not generate interest but influences the dynamics of the dollar.
The upward trend continues in the market. According to the CFTC, the number of net speculative positions increased from 229.8 thousand to 236.6 thousand last week. However, mixed trades do not indicate a clear direction in the market. Buyers reduced their positions by 17,018 contracts, while sellers decreased by 2,267 contracts.
Support and resistance levels
Let's get to the lists! On a daily basis, the “Bollinger Bands” show an attempt to revert to a horizontal plane, keeping the price range relatively wide. The MACD tries to reverse upwards but still maintains a sell signal. Stochastic shows firmer growth, but little correlation with real market dynamics.
Resistances: 2354.65 | 2364.04 | 2378.39 | 2400.00
Supports: 2336.50 | 2320.00 | 2300.00 | 2285.00
Business scenarios Long pants:
Entry: After breaking 2354.65 up
Target: 2378.39
Stop losses: 2340.00
Term: 2-3 days
Bermuda:
Entry: After breaking 2336.50 down
Target: 2300.00
Stop losses: 2354.65
Conclusion:
We are in a period of consolidation after an attempt at corrective growth. With major economic events on the horizon, including US jobs reports and central bank meetings, the market is awaiting new catalysts. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers should be prepared for trading opportunities, taking advantage of critical support and resistance levels.
