After Iran's massive drone and missile attack on Israel on Saturday, President Biden reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “You won a victory. take victory.” Most of the weapons, the first that Iran fired at Israel from its own territory, were successfully intercepted.
“From their own territory” is a very loaded adjective. It speaks to both the complexity and the stupidity of the situation.
Iran has been attacking Israel for decades, but not from its own soil. Instead, Iran has provided Hamas and Hezbollah with weapons, training and other support to do their dirty work from Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.
In fact, it is illuminating to think of Hamas and Hezbollah as Iranian drones in human form. If his neighbor hired and equipped officers to throw Molotov cocktails at his house and worse, he probably wouldn't think it was a particularly significant distinction that they didn't do it from his property. And if you prevented Molotov cocktails from causing much damage with the help of other neighbors, you may not consider “winning” to be the most sensible advice.
Geopolitical deterrence is often stupidity agreed with sophistication. This is because perception (of strength, resolve, etc.) is an essential part of statecraft.
Iran felt it had to retaliate after An Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria. this month. Among those killed in that attack was General Ali Reza Zahdi, a leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who may have played a role. key role in it “planning and execution”of the Hamas attack on October 7.
That's part of the stupidity of the deterrence doctrine. Each step of the ladder can be treated by one party or another as the beginning or the end of hostilities. (That's partly why so many of Israel's enemies began calling for a ceasefire even before Israel had responded on October 7.)
Even before Saturday's Iranian attack, the Iranian delegation to the UN announced: “The matter can be considered concluded.” But from Israel's perspective, the launch of some 300 drones and ballistic missiles against its territory cannot go unanswered. Deterrence requires that Iran understand that such aggression has consequences.
Biden disagrees. He believes that because the United States and other allies helped Israel intercept the drones and missiles, Israel should withdraw and “take victory.” “Our objective is reduce regional tensions“a senior Biden official told the Washington Post. It is a reasonable wish but, for Israel, not necessarily a reasonable request.
What is clearly unreasonable are the demands for restraint by opponents of American military aid to Israel. Insist that Israel should not retaliate because its US-funded defense systems successfully blocked an attack is logically and morally incompatible with calling for an end to US aid. Without those defenses, thousands of Israelis could have been killed and Israel would have no choice but to respond offensively, potentially triggering the regional war that everyone wants to avoid.
But the real problem is not the perception of Israel's willingness to defend itself. It is with the will of Biden (and the United States) to deter our adversaries.
After October 7, Biden had only one word. message for Iran and other bad actors seeking to take advantage of the situation: “No.” Iran ignored that advice on Saturday. But he also ignored it months earlier, when Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iran-backed Houthis attacked Israel and Western shipping.
Furthermore, regional and geopolitical instability did not begin on October 7. Biden's early abandonment of the US-backed government in Afghanistan arguably started this cascade of uncertainty. Vladimir Putin may have seen it as a sign that Western weakness contributed to his decision to invade Ukraine.
Biden's later vote Providing Ukraine with “whatever it takes, for as long as it takes” to defend itself was done too hesitantly. Now, thanks to Republican opposition in Congress, it could be a dead letter.
Domestic politics have seriously undermined the perception that the United States is a reliable ally. The war in Gaza is unpopular among the president's party base, prompting his near-constant rhetorical weakening of Israel. And although Ukraine's front with Russia is weakening, the administration has said Kyiv that it should not attack Russian oil facilities for fear of inflating oil prices in an election year.
It's almost as if Biden's “do not” doctrine gave allies enough support to slowly lose.
