Presidents' Day occurs at a crucial time this year, with the presidency on the brink of crisis as we move inexorably toward a rematch between the incumbent and his predecessor. It's the kind of race we haven't seen since the 19th century, and judging by public opinion of President Biden and former President Trump, most Americans would have preferred it to stay that way.
But the third installment of our Presidential greatness projectA poll of presidential experts released this weekend shows that academics do not share American voters' roughly equal distaste for both candidates.
Biden, in fact, makes his debut in our ranking at number 14, placing him in the top third of American presidents. Meanwhile, Trump maintains the position he occupied six years ago: last, behind historically calamitous CEOs like James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson. In that and other respects, Trump's radical departure from political, institutional, and legal norms has affected informed assessments not only of him but also of Biden and several other presidents.
The overall survey results reveal stability and change in the way scholars evaluate our nation's most important and controversial political office. Great presidents have traditionally been viewed as those who presided over moments of national transformation, guided the country through major crises, and expanded the institution of the presidency. Military victories, economic growth, assassinations, and scandals also affect experts' assessments of presidential performance.
The presidents at the top of our rankings, and others like ours, reflect this. Established leaders such as Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and George Washington consistently top the list.
Our latest rankings also show that expert assessments are driven not only by traditional notions of greatness but also by the evolving values of our time.
One example is the continued decline in esteem for two important presidents, Andrew Jackson and Woodrow Wilson. Their reputations have suffered steadily in recent years as modern politics leads scholars to increasingly harshly evaluate their presidencies of the early 19th and 20th centuries, especially their unacceptable treatment of marginalized people.
More clearly, this poll has seen pronounced partisan dynamics emerge, possibly in response to the Trump presidency and the Trumpification of presidential politics.
Defenders of Biden's presidency have strong arguments in their arsenal, but his high ranking in the top 15 suggests there is a powerful anti-Trump factor at work. Biden's record so far does not include the military victories or institutional expansion that have typically driven higher rankings, and a family scandal like the one involving his son Hunter typically lowers a president's ranking.
Biden's most important accomplishments may be that he rescued the presidency from Trump, returned to a more traditional style of presidential leadership and is preparing to keep the office out of his predecessor's reach this fall.
Meanwhile, Trump's position at the bottom of our rankings puts him behind not only Buchanan and Johnson, but also such lowly figures as Franklin Pierce, Warren Harding and William Henry Harrison, who died just 31 days after taking office.
Trump's impact goes far beyond his own ranking and Biden's. All contemporary Democratic presidents have risen through the ranks: Barack Obama (No. 7), Bill Clinton (No. 12), and even Jimmy Carter (No. 22).
Yes, these presidents had great accomplishments, like expanding access to health care and working to end the conflict in the Middle East, and between them they have two Nobel Prize winners. But given her shortcomings and failures, her rise appears to be due less to a reassessment of her administrations than to an advantage in being neither Trump nor a member of his party.
In fact, every modern Republican president has fallen in the poll, including the transformative Ronald Reagan (No. 16) and George HW Bush (No. 19), who led the nation's last decisive military victory.
Academics lean left, but that hasn't changed since our previous surveys. What these results suggest is not only an additional emphasis on a president's political affiliation, but also the emergence of a president's loyalty to political and institutional norms as a criterion of what makes a president “great” for voters. academics who study them.
As for Americans voting for the next president, they find themselves in the historically rare position of knowing how both candidates have performed in office. It remains to be seen whether they will consider each president's commitment to the norms of presidential leadership and come to rate them as differently as our experts.
Justin Vaughn is an associate professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University. Brandon Rottinghaus is a professor of political science at the University of Houston.
