The couple continues to face a persistent sales pressure, driven by the renewed strength in the Federal Reserve decision to maintain interest rates without changes. The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, emphasized that monetary policy remains appropriate in light of staying above the objective, and that future rate decisions depend on the data. This cautious position, but not too aggressive helped restore confidence in the US dollar, especially given the resistance of the US economy and the strength of the labor market. Powell pointed out that inflation remains above the official objective of 2%, although most long -term projections remain consistent with that goal. He also noted that the labor market seems more balanced recently, giving the Fed greater flexibility to determine its next movements. In addition, Powell stressed that recently tax tariffs have begun to impact certain sectors by raising the highest prices, which adds another factor that the Fed is closely monitoring.
On the other hand, although the European Union and the United States reached a commercial agreement aimed at reducing tariffs and opening markets to specific products, the positive impact on the euro has remained limited. This is mainly due to the fact that the agreement seems to favor the US. As a result, this imbalance improves the commercial position of the United States, while the effect on the euro remains silenced in current economic conditions.
Looking at the recent data of the Eurozone, a clear slowdown in economic activity is evident. registered weak quarterly growth of only 0.1%. He remained at 49.8, showing a slight improvement but still indicating contraction in the sector, while the stabilized in 50.5, just above the contraction threshold, reflecting soft domestic demand. Simultaneously, the central consumer price index () fell to 2.3% year after year, its lowest level in more than a year, feeding the expectations that the European Central Bank can adopt a more accommodated monetary posture in the next period, especially with 6.3% and not show a significant improvement. This increasing divergence in economic yield throughout the Atlantic, backed by the solid data of the United States and weakening European indicators, continues to strengthen the dollar against the euro, maintaining the downward pressure on the single currency in the term unless we see substantial improvements in the growth of the Eurozone and inflation figures.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair recently experienced a decisive change after breaking below the ascending trend line that had been maintained since February 2025. This key support had backed the couple's uphill impulse for months. The decomposition coincided with an bearish rape of the Fibonacci recoil level of 38.2% of the upward wave (1) that began in May, adding more technical importance and confirming a structural change in the trend of the torque. This double rupture triggered an intensified sale impulse, driven by a long liquidation wave, activating the bearish wave (c) within a complex corrective structure. This movement probably follows the end of Wave (B), which supports continuous pressure expectations in the short term.
The torque has already broken the critical support level of 1,1460, previously a base for corrective waves (IV), racing the way for a greater disadvantage in the absence of main technical barriers. The following significant support is about 1,1200, which served as a strong rebound point in May. A rupture confirmed below this level could open the door for additional losses towards range 1,1050-1.1000, especially if the dollar remains strong or if the next European data disappoint. Structurally, the current movement seems to be part of a broader corrective wave with the aim of re -testing the previous levels observed before the spring rally, which can redefine the medium -term trend if the underlying bearish pressures persist in the euro.
