rose for the second day in a row and is approaching 1.1819. Sentiment towards the US dollar remains under pressure amid uncertainty over US tariff policy, which is eroding confidence in the US currency.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said tariff rates for each country could be raised from the current 10% to 15% or more, but did not specify the criteria for such changes.
President Donald Trump took a measured tone on tariffs in his annual address to Congress. At the same time, he made it clear that he would not change his strategy, despite the Supreme Court's decision to cancel his “reciprocal” functions on a large scale.
In terms of monetary policy, the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.
Additional caution arises from ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran over the nuclear program, the next round of which will take place today in Geneva.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1818. A bullish move towards 1.1862 seems likely, with room for an extension towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and points upward, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.
According to the H1 chart, the pair is developing the next ascending wave towards 1.1860. After reaching this level, a pullback towards 1.1818 could follow, before a new advance towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.
Conclusion
In summary, EUR/USD continues its gradual recovery as persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy weighs on sentiment in the dollar. While Trump's speech to Congress did not offer clarity on the trade front, and ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran add a layer of geopolitical caution, the technical outlook remains constructive. The pair is gaining momentum within a consolidation range, with bullish targets at 1.1862 and 1.1888. Both the MACD and stochastic indicators support the bullish bias, suggesting that further gains are likely in the near term. The key level to watch is 1.1818 – holding above this support keeps the upward trajectory intact, while a break below could signal a temporary pause. For now, the path of least resistance seems higher.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer:
Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
